中国汽车销量强劲推高橡胶价格

Expectations of robust demand from China boosted rubber to a three-year high after buoyant car sales data for November lifted expectations of higher tyre demand.

中国强劲需求预期推动橡胶价格涨至三年高点，11月火爆的汽车销售数据推高了轮胎需求预期。

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported vehicle sales of 2.9m in November, up 16.6 per cent year on year. Tax breaks introduced this year on small passenger cars have spurred demand and while the November figure was down from a September peak of 26.1 per cent, it marked the sixth straight double-digit rise in growth.

据中国汽车工业协会(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)报告，11月汽车销量达290万辆，同比增长16.6%。今年出台的小排量汽车购置税减免优惠刺激了需求，尽管11月销售增幅低于9月26.1%的峰值，但它标志着连续第六个月实现两位数增长。

Rubber, which is also used in condoms and gloves, closed up almost 8 per cent to $205.60 a kilogramme in Singapore, its highest level since January 2014.

橡胶价格在新加坡收涨近8%，至每公斤205.60美元，创2014年1月以来最高水平。橡胶还用于安全套和手套。

“If demand remains this dynamic, more rubber will be needed for manufacturing tyres,” said Commerzbank.

德国商业银行(Commerzbank)表示：“如果需求仍然保持这种活力，将需要更多橡胶来制造轮胎。”

Chinese consumers have rushed to purchase vehicles before the tax breaks expire at the end of the year. The country’s scramble for cars has also helped palladium, which is used in catalytic converters in petrol engines, with the precious metal up more than a third this year at $727.35 a troy ounce.

中国消费者在税收减免于年底终止前赶着购买汽车。这还推高了钯的价格，这种贵金属用于汽油发动机中的催化转化器，其价格今年涨幅逾三分之一，至每金衡盎司727.35美元。

Nevertheless, some car executives and analysts are concerned that rise in sales could slow next year if the government fails to extend the tax break, introduced in late 2015 to support flagging consumer demand.

然而一些汽车业高管和分析师担心，如果中国政府未能延长减税政策，明年的销售增长可能会减缓。该政策于2015年末出台，以支持低落的消费需求。

Analysts said rubber prices have also been supported by heavy rainfall in Thailand, the commodity’s largest producer, which led to disrupted harvesting known as “tapping”, which also added to the price increases.

分析师们表示，最大产胶国泰国的强降雨也推高了橡胶价格，因为强降雨干扰了割胶作业，加剧价格上涨。

The market has been on a downward trajectory since the start of 2011 when prices almost hit $600 per kg. This year, it has surged more than 80 per cent, and is likely to leading to increased costs for leading tyremakers including Bridgestone, Goodyear and Michelin.

自2011年初橡胶价格逼近600美元/公斤以来，橡胶市场一直处于下滑态势。今年，橡胶价格已上涨逾80%，这很可能导致普利司通(Bridgestone)、固特异(Goodyear)、米其林(Michelin)等领先轮胎制造商成本增加。

The China car sales data comes as industry consultants are expecting a rubber supply shortfall between 2016-2018 due to falling yields.

在中国汽车销量数据出炉之际，行业顾问预计，由于收成下滑，2016年至2018年将出现橡胶供应短缺。

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries last week said it expected the production of its members — who account for about 90 per cent of worldwide supply — to increase only 0.1 per cent in 2016. While demand is forecast to rise 4.1 per cent from the previous year.

天然橡胶生产国协会(ANRPC)上周表示，预计2016年协会成员国——占全球供应量的约90%——的橡胶产量仅增长0.1%，而预计需求与上年相比将增长4.1%。

The ANRPC said: “The uptrend could be supported by favourable supply-demand fundamentals, weak Japanese yen, rebound in crude oil price and improved economic outlook in US.”

该协会称：“推动价格上涨的因素包括有利的供需基本面因素、日元疲软、原油价格反弹以及美国经济前景改善。”