年大宗农产品走势要看中国

China’s handling of its state reserves of raw materials such as cotton and sugar will be a key factor shaping the direction of agricultural commodities in 2017, according to a major lender to agribusinesses.

一家贷款给农业企业的大型银行称，中国对棉花和糖等原材料官方储备的处置，将成为影响2017年大宗农产品走势的一个关键因素。

China is the most striking wild card that will drive agricultural markets, said Stefan Vogel, head of agri commodity markets at Rabobank,

荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)大宗农产品市场主管斯特凡.沃热尔(Stefan Vogel)表示，中国是推动农产品市场的最引人注目的变数。

the Dutch lender that is a leading financier to farmers and agribusinesses around the world.

荷兰合作银行是面向全球农户和农业企业的领先融资机构。

Any decision by China’s policymakers to begin selling down the country’s huge reserves would have a large impact on markets.

中国政策制定者的任何开始减持国内巨额储备的决定，都将对市场产生巨大影响。

Whether China opens the stock floodgates or not will be a major price-driver in cotton and sugar — and potentially also in corn, soyabean or vegetable oil — markets in 2017, the bank said in its report.

该银行在其报告中称：中国是否减持库存将成为2017年棉花和糖市场的主要价格推动因素，玉米、大豆或植物油可能也是如此。

Beijing is looking to unload excess reserves built up under the government’s subsidy policy.

中国正考虑出售在政府补贴政策下累积的过剩储备。

It set minimum prices too high for commodities including cotton, sugar and corn, and as those prices diverged from the market prices, authorities encouraged excessive production as well as strong import flows.

中国为包括棉花、糖和玉米在内的大宗商品设置的最低价格过高，当这些价格偏离市场价格时，政府鼓励了过度生产以及强劲的进口。

Agricultural raw materials, especially the so called soft commodities such as sugar, coffee and cotton, have been among the top performers this year.

农业原材料，特别是所谓的软性大宗商品，例如糖、咖啡和棉花，今年的表现在最佳之列。

The Bloomberg soft commodities index has gained 21 per cent, compared with 24 per cent for industrial metals and 1.5 per cent for energy.

彭博(Bloomberg)软性大宗商品指数上涨21%，工业金属和能源指数则分别上涨24%和1.5%。

Grains have fallen about 3 per cent.

粮食指数下滑约3%。

On the US, Rabobank said it was cautious on the outlook following the election as president this month of Donald Trump.

荷兰合作银行表示，在本月唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)当选美国总统后，该行对美国的前景持谨慎态度。

The US president-elect has pledged to abandon trade agreements which could have wide-reaching effects on American imports and exports of commodities if trade agreements are revised.

这位当选总统承诺废除贸易协议：如果这些贸易协议被修订，可能会对美国大宗商品的进口和出口造成广泛影响。

Speculative trading of agricultural commodities has been a feature of the markets’ volatility in 2016, and Rabobank expects the trend to continue.

大宗农产品投机交易一直是今年市场波动的一个特点，荷兰合作银行预测，这种趋势将继续。

With interest rates expected to rise only slowly, commodities are likely to attract hedge funds and other speculative investors looking for juicier returns, said the bank.

该银行表示，由于利率只会缓慢上行，大宗商品可能会吸引那些寻找更高收益率的对冲基金和其他投机客。

It predicts index funds, or those that track commodities indices, to be back in the agricultural market in the second half of 2017, as they look for a hedge against inflation.

该银行预测，寻找对冲通胀的方式的指数基金（那些追踪大宗商品指数的基金），将在明年下半年回归农产品市场。

Volatility in currency markets is also likely to be a factor for agricultural commodity prices in the next 12 months, with the euro likely to depreciate as a result of French, Dutch and German elections, Rabobank reckons.

荷兰合作银行认为，外汇市场波动性也可能会成为影响未来12个月大宗农产品价格的因素，法国、荷兰和德国大选可能会导致欧元贬值。

Currency movements have had a strong impact on agricultural commodity prices this year, with the UK’s referendum on the EU leading to a sharp fall in the pound that pushed up the price of food imports and boosted agricultural exports.

汇率走势今年已对大宗农产品价格产生有力影响，英国退欧公投曾导致英镑汇率重挫，这推升了英国食品进口价格并提振了农产品出口。

By contrast, the strengthening of the Brazilian real helped the surge in coffee and sugar prices as the country is the largest producer of both.

相比之下，巴西雷亚尔升值促使咖啡和糖价格飙升，因为该国是这两种商品的最大生产国。

In terms of individual commodities, coffee prices, which are trading at about $1.62 a pound, are expected to decline significantly, with an especially bearish outlook on arabica coffee.

从单个大宗商品来看，预计咖啡价格将大幅下跌，目前为1磅1.62美元左右，投资者对阿拉比卡咖啡前景尤为悲观。

As consumers in developing countries continue to shift to meat-based diets, grains and oilseeds used as livestock feed are expected to see support.

随着发展中国家消费者继续转向以肉为主的饮食，预计用作牲畜饲料的粮食和油籽将找到支撑。

Soyabeans which are trading above $10 a bushel are expected to remain strong, while dairy prices are also expected to rise during 2017 as demand steadily increases, said the bank.

荷兰合作银行表示，预计大豆价格将保持强劲，目前在1蒲式耳10美元上方，同时由于需求稳定上升，预计奶制品价格明年也将上涨。