中国大宗农产品库存达历史高位

Chinese stockpiles of agricultural commodities have hit historically high levels, complicating efforts to phase out a policy of state buying without causing a steep fall in prices, according to Beijing’s most senior agricultural adviser.

按照中国政府最资深农业顾问的说法，中国农业大宗商品库存达到历史高位，这让政府很难做到在不导致价格大幅下跌的前提下逐步取消国家收购政策。

government buying of cotton, wheat, corn, soya, sugar and rice at above market prices has encouraged farmers to grow strategic crops. But the practice has led to bloated warehouses, smuggling and an increase in cheaper imports.

近年政府以高于市场的价格买入棉花、小麦、玉米、大豆、糖和大米，这种做法鼓励农民种植具有战略重要地位的农作物。然而，这也导致了库存过高、走私行为、以及相对廉价的进口商品的增长。

China has amassed 60 per cent of the world’s cotton stocks, prompting an announcement by Beijing last year that it would release its cotton holdings.

目前，中国的棉花库存占全球60%。这一局面促使中国政府在去年宣布，它将释放其棉花库存。

The bigger the stockpiles grow, the harder it is for the government to extricate itself. Dumping the glut into the market would reverberate through the international sector because China has become a large buyer of agricultural commodities.

库存增长得越高，政府脱身的难度就越大。由于中国已经成为农业大宗商品的大买家，将过剩商品投入市场，会在国际市场引发震荡。

Policy makers fear that releasing inventories would depress prices and push farmers towards more lucrative cash crops, increasing reliance on imports.

中国政策制定者担心，释放库存会抑制作物价格，促使农民转向更有利可图的经济作物，从而增加对进口的依赖。

China’s grain harvest has risen every year for more than a decade, as high prices have encouraged farmers to grow strategic crops. But costs have remained high and the agricultural sector is uncompetitive compared with other countries.

由于高价格鼓励了战略性作物的种植，10多年来中国谷物收成年年增长。然而，中国的农作物种植成本居高不下，农业部门的竞争力弱于其他国家。

“Since last year we haven’t raised the minimum price [for wheat and rice]. That sends a signal to the farmers,” said Chen Xiwen, director of the office of the central rural work leading group, at a press conference to explain rural policies for the year.

在解释今年农村政策的记者会上，中央农村工作领导小组办公室主任陈锡文表示，中国政府自去年以来没有提高小麦和稻谷的最低收购价，此举向农民发出了信号。

By capping the state-set minimum purchase price as costs rise, the government hoped to bring it into line with market prices, Mr Chen said. But the steep drop in oil prices meant growers should still have comfortable margins this year, he added. “We just want it to stabilise — that’s all.”

陈锡文表示，通过在成本攀升的同时封顶政府设定的最低收购价，中国政府希望让收购价靠拢市场价格。不过，他补充说，油价的暴跌意味着今年农民们仍可达到较高的利润率。“我们只是希望价格稳定下来——这就是我们的目的。”