沙特石油部长阿里纳伊米离任的背后

Speculation about Ali al-Naimi’s retirement has been a favourite guessing game in the oil market for well over a decade. Many Saudi-watchers have been forced into embarrassing recantations after predicting the oil minister’s demise. As government reshuffles have come and gone, the octogenarian technocrat has remained the one constant presence.

十多年来，阿里•纳伊米(Ali al-Naimi，见上图)何时退休一直是石油市场最爱猜的一个谜。许多沙特观察人士都曾在预测这位沙特石油部长即将去职后被迫尴尬地收回前言。沙特政府成员不断洗牌，然而这位年逾八旬的技术官僚一直稳居其位。

With last year’s change of regime in the world’s largest oil exporter, however, it was only a matter of time before the ministry welcomed a new face.

但去年这个世界最大石油出口国发生政权更替后，沙特石油部长之职迎来新面孔就只是时间问题了。

Mr Naimi’s position had become untenable in recent weeks after he appeared to have been overruled by Mohammed bin Salman, the 30-year-old son of King Salman and the man who holds the main levers of power in the state today.

最近几周，纳伊米的地位似乎变得难以为继。此前，沙特国王萨勒曼(King Salman)30岁的儿子、现在掌握着该国主要权柄的人——穆罕默德•本•萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)看上去推翻了纳伊米的决定。

In the opaque world of Saudi politics, it is hard to know for certain what went on between the minister and the deputy crown prince during last month’s Doha meeting of leading oil producers, called to agree a production freeze and give a boost to the price.

在沙特不透明的政治世界里，很难确定在上个月主要产油国的多哈会议中，这位沙特石油部长和副王储之间发生了什么（该次会议的目的是就石油冻产和油价提升达成一致）。

But perceptions matter. And Mr Naimi was seen to have consented to a freeze even if Iran — Saudi Arabia’s arch-foe — insisted on raising its own output. The deputy crown prince was adamant that no deal should be struck without Iran. He made his views public.

但外界看法很重要。在外界看来，纳伊米已同意冻产，即使沙特的死敌伊朗坚持要提高本国的石油产出。副王储则坚持没有伊朗的参与就不能达成任何协议。他公开了他的观点。

Although the Saudi statement replacing Mr Naimi with Khalid al-Falih was silent on the circumstances of the change, the departing oil minister had been hoping for some time to go into retirement but had been held back by King Salman. Either way, the seasoned veteran whose stewardship of the oil market had won widespread respect would probably have preferred a more glorious exit.

尽管沙特方面对哈立德•法立赫(Khalid Falih)接替纳伊米的声明在变动原因上保持了沉默，这位即将离职的石油部长希望退休已有一段时间，但被萨勒曼国王阻止。不管怎样，这位经验丰富的部长对石油市场的管理赢得了广泛的尊敬，很可能他宁愿用一种更荣耀的方式退场。

Having proposed a radical shift in policy in late 2014, when Saudi Arabia shocked the markets with a decision to protect market share rather than the price of oil, he has watched the price slump far further than his ministry or the government had predicted. Officials say their expectation was that the price would settle at $60-$70 a barrel.

2014年末，沙特保护市场份额而非石油价格的决定让市场为之震惊，当时提出根本性政策转变的纳伊米见证了石油价格的暴跌，跌幅远超他所在的沙特石油部或者沙特政府所预测的程度。官员们表示，他们当时的预测是油价会稳定在每桶60到70美元。

The crash has jolted Riyadh into action to wean the country off its reliance on oil but it has also sparked domestic criticism that the gamble was not worth taking. The rebound since January — oil has gained about 50 per cent from its $30 low — has been a small consolation for Mr Naimi.

这次冲击促使利雅得采取行动逐渐减少该国对石油的依赖，但也引发了国内批评，称这次赌博不值得进行。1月以来油价的反弹——从每桶30美元的低点上升了约50%——对纳伊米来说是一个小小的慰藉。

Markets will be relieved that the oil ministry will remain in the hands of a well-regarded technocrat — Mr al-Falih, chairman of state oil company Saudi Aramco, had previously been tipped for the position. Unlike Mr Naimi, he is part of the inner circle of Prince Mohammed. Both he and the deputy crown prince agree with Mr Naimi on the broad direction of oil policy, and believe the strategy has been vindicated by the pain suffered by US shale producers, which were always the main target. Those hoping for a change of direction will be disappointed.

将让市场放心的是，沙特石油部将继续由风评良好的技术官僚执掌——沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)董事长法立赫此前就曾被传将接替这一职位。和纳伊米不同，他是副王储核心圈子中的成员。在石油政策的大方向上，他和副王储都认同纳伊米，并且相信沙特一直以来的主要目标——美国页岩油生产商遭遇的痛苦证明这一策略是正确的。那些希望沙特石油政策发生方向性变化的人会感到失望。

The departure of Mr Naimi, however, underlines that the new order has upended the traditional relationship between the oil minister and the palace. MbS, as the deputy crown prince is known abroad, has proved hurried and brazen, willing to go where other senior princes have feared to tread. While Mr Naimi had a relationship of trust and a large degree of independence under the late King Abdullah, in the past year his ministry had come under the purview of a council chaired by Prince Mohammed.

然而，纳伊米的离开凸显出新秩序颠覆了石油部长和王室之间的传统关系。副王储（在海外被普遍称为MbS）已证明了自己的鲁莽和大胆，愿意去其他更年长的王子害怕涉足的地方。在已故国王阿卜杜拉(King Abdullah)执政时，纳伊米曾享受信任关系和很大程度上的独立性，而过去一年，他领导的石油部受到了由副王储担任主席的一个委员会的辖制。

Saudi royals tend to comment little on oil policy, leaving it to the technocrats. Not so under Prince Mohammed, who is deliberately outspoken as he charges ahead with an ambitious economic restructuring plan to diversify away from oil. He has said he pays little heed to gyrations in the oil price; he wants Saudi Arabia to thrive without oil.

沙特王室成员往往很少评论石油政策，会把这个问题留给技术官僚。而副王储就不是这样了，在他大力推进雄心勃勃的经济结构调整计划以实现从依赖石油转向多元化的过程中，他有意直言不讳。他曾说过，他很少留意油价起伏，他希望沙特能在没有石油的情况下繁荣发展。

More worrying for the oil market, however, is that recent Saudi actions, not least in Doha, suggest willingness by the palace to allow regional politics and the power struggle with Iran to intrude on oil policy.

然而，更让石油市场忧虑的是沙特最近的动作，尤其是在多哈。这些动作表明王室愿意让地区政治和与伊朗的角力影响石油政策。

The departure of Mr Naimi from the Saudi oil scene marks the end of an era, for the oil market as well as for Saudi Arabia.

纳伊米退出沙特石油舞台标志着一个时代的结束，对石油市场和沙特本身来说都是如此。