令人不安的历史回声 Troubling warnings for the US from the 1930s

When people strike comparisons with Hitler — or Munich — I usually reach for my earplugs. The same applies to the Great Depression. There is nothing on today’s horizon that compares with the Nazis or the mass privation that followed the 1929 stock market crash.

当人们提到与希特勒(Hitler)或者慕尼黑的比较时，我通常会想办法把耳朵堵上。而与大萧条(Great Depression)相比较时，我也同样会如此。在当今的地平线上，没有什么事情能与纳粹(Nazis)或1929年股市崩盘后的大规模贫困相比拟。

Yet there are echoes we would be foolish to ignore. Western democracy faces no mortal threat. But it is going through an acute stress test. On both sides of the Atlantic, people have lost faith in their public institutions. They are also losing trust in their neighbours. Co-operation is fraying and open borders are in question. We can no longer be sure the centre will hold — or even that it deserves to.

然而，当前确实存在一些历史的回声，我们忽视它们将是愚蠢的。西方民主体制并不面临生死存亡的威胁。但它正在经受一场严峻的压力测试。在大西洋两侧，人们都已丧失了对公共机构的信心。他们也正在丧失对邻国的信任。相互合作正产生裂痕，开放边境正产生变数。我们无法再确信中间立场将会继续占上风——甚至无法确信它值得坚守。

The most insidious trend is vanishing optimism about the future. Contrary to what is widely believed, the majority’s pessimism pre-dates the 2008 financial collapse. At the height of the last property bubble in 2005, Alan Greenspan, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, said society could not long tolerate a situation where most people were suffering from declining standards of living.

最隐秘而有害的趋势是，对未来的乐观情绪正在丧失。与普遍认为的相反，多数人的悲观态度要早于2008年的金融崩盘。在2005年上一个地产泡沫达到巅峰之际，时任美联储(Fed)主席艾伦•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)曾表示，整个社会无法长期容忍多数人生活水准下降的局面。

“This is not the sort of thing that a democratic society — a capitalist democratic society — can readily accept without addressing,” he said. This came after several years of falling median income.

他说：“这不是一个民主社会——更准确地说是一个资本主义民主社会——可以轻易接受而不加应对的那种状况。”他说出这番话的时候，美国收入中位数已连续下降多年。

For most Americans and Europeans the situation is worse today than it was then. Many have since had their homes repossessed. Median incomes were lower in 2015 than when Mr Greenspan issued his warning. A majority on both sides of the Atlantic believe their children will be worse off than they are.

对多数美国人和欧洲人来说，如今的局面比那时候更糟。自那以来，许多人的住房已被收回。2015年美国收入中位数比格林斯潘发出警告时更低。大西洋两岸的多数人都认为，子女的境况将比他们自己更糟糕。

They may be right. Economists debate whether the sharp decline in productivity growth during the past 15 years is the result of mismeasurement. Polls suggest there is nothing wrong with the yardstick. Most people feel worse off, which is what matters in politics. In his book, the Rise and fall of American growth, Robert Gordon argues that the century-long leap in productivity that began in 1870 can never be repeated. Even if Mr Gordon is eventually proved wrong, will society have the patience to wait and see?

他们也许是正确的。经济学家正在辩论一个问题：过去15年里生产率增长速度的急剧下降会不会是测算标准错误的结果？调查显示，测算标准并没有问题。多数人确实感觉生活更差了，这才是政治中的重要事情。在《美国成长的兴衰》(The Rise and Fall of American Growth)一书中，罗伯特•戈登(Robert Gordon)声称，始于1870年、长达百年的生产率飞跃永远都不可复制。就算最终戈登被证明错误，整个社会会不会有耐心等到结果？

The second disturbing trend is a growing sense of unfairness — the feeling that elites are continually lining their pockets. Scholars talk about the “Great Gatsby Curve” — the massive rise in inequality that took place in the 1920s before the Wall Street crash. The numbers today are eerily similar to then. Labour’s share of national income keeps plummeting. Despite the US economy’s recovery, 2015 saw the sharpest rise in US wage inequality since the end of the Great Recession.

第二个令人不安的趋势是与日俱增的不公平感，也就是那种精英阶层正在继续大肆赚钱的感觉。学者们谈到“了不起的盖茨比曲线”(Great Gatsby Curve)，这个名字是指上世纪20年代华尔街崩盘前出现的不平度大幅攀升的现象。如今的数据与那个时代存在诡异的相似之处。劳动者占国民收入的份额不断下落。尽管美国经济复苏了，但2015年出现了自大萧条结束以来美国薪资不平等程度的最大升幅。

The average American’s chances of moving up an income bracket are no better today than when President Barack Obama took office. Last year he said that for too many Americans the “ladders of opportunity” had disappeared. He was right. Yet he has been unable to do much about it.

如今，普通美国人收入再上一档次的机会并不比美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)上任时更好。去年他曾表示，对太多美国人来说，“机遇的梯子”已经消失。他说得没错，然而他对此也拿不出什么办法。

The third is a rising culture of nihilism. When people think their concerns are being ignored — and worse, that they are also being belittled — they lash out. Hell hath no fury like an angry electorate. It is easy to poke fun at the likes of Republican frontrunner Donald Trump and the leader of the UK’s Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn. They provide an endless supply of material.

第三个趋势是不断崛起的虚无主义文化。当人们认为自己关切的问题被忽视时——更糟糕的是他们还受到贬低时，他们会忍不住发泄怒火。地狱烈焰不及“愤怒选民”之怒火。对于类似共和党头号种子唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)和英国工党(Labour)领导人杰里米•科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)这样的人物，冷嘲热讽是很容易的。他们提供了无穷无尽的素材。

But the ease with which they can be lampooned should not obscure what is driving their success. The puzzle is not that such figures are finding an audience, but that they did not emerge sooner. Do not expect them to vanish into the night.

然而，他们如此容易受到嘲讽的事实，不应该遮盖推动他们成功的因素。令人困惑的并不是这种人竟然会找到听众，而是他们竟然没有更早出现。不要指望他们会消失在黑夜中。

Contrast Mr Trump’s promise of strong leadership and “winning big” with the timid incrementalism of Hillary Clinton’s platform. She promises to finesse the gains of Mr Obama’s first two terms. Mr Trump vows to change the rules of the game entirely.

特朗普对强势领导和“大赢一把”的承诺，与希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)竞选平台的温吞渐进主义形成鲜明反差。希拉里承诺在奥巴马两个任期成就的基础上谋求发展。而特朗普则发誓要完全改变游戏规则。

The final echo from the 1930s is in the declining global order. In a widely cited interview with the Atlantic last week, Mr Obama complained about “free riders” among America’s allies, including David Cameron’s Britain. He also expressed disdain for the US establishment’s obsession with “credibility” as the measure of American power, and force as their perennial solution.

来自上世纪30年代的最后一个回声，是全球秩序的不断下滑。奥巴马最近在接受《大西洋月刊》(The Atlantic)被广泛援引的专访时，抱怨美国盟友中的“搭便车者”，其中包括了戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)的英国。此外，对于美国体制内人士痴迷于把“可信度”视为美国力量的衡量标准、把武力视为永恒的解决方案，奥巴马也表示了蔑视。

Mr Obama’s words have elicited outrage in both London and Washington. Yet he gave a good summary of US public opinion. Indeed, what Mr Obama said is not wildly different from what Mr Trump has been arguing. Americans are tired of paying for Pax Americana.

奥巴马的话在伦敦和华盛顿都引起了愤慨。不过，他很好地总结了美国的公众舆论。的确，奥巴马的言论与特朗普的主张没有太大差别。美国人已厌倦了为“美国治下的和平”(Pax Americana)买单。

Unlike Britain in the 1930s, the US can still bear the burden. But it does not want to.

与上世纪30年代的英国不同，美国仍然能够承担得起这一负担，不过美国并不想这么做。

Neville Chamberlain, the proponent of Nazi appeasement, said Czechoslovakia was not worth the bones of a single British grenadier. Mr Obama believes much the same about the people of Syria. He expressed no concern about Syria’s impact on Europe. The flood of refugees is Europe’s problem. Ukraine is in Russia’s neighbourhood. The Middle East must fend for itself. Such were the valedictory thoughts of a world-weary president. They were not a million miles from Mr Trump’s.

支持对纳粹采取绥靖政策的内维尔•张伯伦(Neville Chamberlain)曾表示，捷克斯洛伐克的价值，比不上一个英国士兵的骨头。奥巴马对叙利亚人民也持有差不多的看法。他从未表达过对叙利亚战争对欧洲冲击的关切。蜂拥而至的难民是欧洲的问题。乌克兰处在俄罗斯的势力范围以内。中东必须依靠自己。这就是一位对世界感到厌倦的总统离任前的想法。它们与特朗普的看法之间并不是远隔万里。

The coming months provide a test. In June, the UK votes on whether to leave the EU. If Brexit takes place, the European project could start to go backwards. Will America care?

今后几个月将出现一场考验。6月份英国将为是否离开欧盟(EU)举行公投。如果真的发生英国离开欧盟的现象，整个欧洲一体化项目可能开始走回头路。美国会关心这事么？

By then, we will also know the battle lines for the US presidential election. In all probability it will be Mrs Clinton against Mr Trump. Western democracy is on trial. Autocrats in Russia and China will be watching keenly.

到那时候，我们也会知道美国总统选举的战线在哪里。这一选战多半会在希拉里和特朗普之间展开。西方民主体制正面临考验。俄罗斯和中国的威权统治者将密切关注。