中国能否承受未富先老 Can China afford to grow old before it gets rich

To mark the Chinese New Year, Nanyang Business School invited a panel of five experienced business men and women to its CEO Breakfast Series to speak about their experience of doing business in China and discuss the challenges this brings.

为庆祝中国农历新年，新加坡南洋商学院(Nanyang Business School)邀请5位经验丰富的商界人士出席其CEO早餐系列活动，讲述他们在华做生意的经历并讨论由此带来的挑战。

Hosted in the Fullerton Hotel, Singapore, the series brings together current graduate students and industry leaders to share insights on current topics and trends. During the first session of the year, five panellists who volunteered insights into the business environment in China and the challenges its economy faces.

在新加坡浮尔顿酒店(Fullerton Hotel)举办的CEO早餐系列活动让应届毕业生和行业领袖能够共同分享对当前热点和趋势的看法。在今年首场早餐会，5位专家自愿分享他们对中国商业环境及中国经济面临的挑战的看法。

Despite the early hours, the panel featuring Kevin Lu, partner and chief executive of Partners Group; Berenike Ullmann, vice-president of consumer market knowledge at Procter and Gamble Asia; Jeffrey Hardee, Singapore country manager at Caterpillar Asia; Patrick Cherrier, chief executive of Essilor International; and Kok Poh June, deputy chief executive of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City Investment and Development.

尽管是早上时间，但讨论会成员有瑞士合众集团(Partners Group)新加坡公司首席执行官及合伙人陆凯文(Kevin Lu)、宝洁亚洲(Procter and Gamble Asia)消费市场信息部副总裁吴凯(Berenike Ullmann)、卡特彼勒亚洲(Caterpillar Asia)新加坡总经理杰弗里•哈迪(Jeffrey Hardee)、依视路(Essilor International)首席执行官帕特里克•谢里耶(Patrick Cherrier)，以及中新天津生态城投资开发有限公司(Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City Investment and Development)副总裁郭宝骏(Kok Poh June)。

In light of recent volatility of the Chinese stock markets, the panellists addressed the diverse challenges and risks involved when investing. But they had a positive outlook and believed that the current turbulence in the Chinese economy is not something to worry about.

鉴于最近中国股市的波动，这些专家谈到了投资时遇到的各种挑战和风险。但他们对前景乐观，认为不用担心中国经济目前的波动。

While there has been an impact on Chinese business, whether at local or multinational companies, the experts argued the fundamental growth prospects remain unclouded, promising additional demand and further economic growth. Progress is still expected in the “land of the dragon” incomes for Chinese employees over the coming years are likely to double, they said. The Chinese are still big spenders, which boosts the domestic economy, and new jobs will be created, so consumer businesses in particular will have many opportunities. With a growing middle class and rising living standards, the panellists believed the long-term viability of investments in China could be trusted.

尽管在华业务（无论是本国企业还是跨国企业）遭受影响，但专家们表示，基本增长前景依然明朗，有可能带来额外需求和进一步的经济增长。他们说，预计“龙之地”仍会发展，中国员工今后几年的收入可能翻倍。中国人仍然大举支出，这推动了国内经济，将会创造新的就业岗位，因此消费者业务尤其具有许多机遇。随着中产阶层日益壮大和居民生活水平提高，专家们相信，在中国长期投资的可行性是可信的。

To back this up, Berenike Ullmann, an expert in the consumer behaviour of the Chinese, outlined their buying habits and the reactions of the country’s economy. While most Chinese prefer to buy local, they also trust western-made products, going to great lengths to buy them. To combat the trend of buying abroad, many local companies strive to improve their manufacturing standards. As a result, Ms Ullman believes China will become even more competitive than it is today, thereby protecting the country’s labour market, improving working conditions and promoting the country’s wealth.

为了支持这种说法，中国人消费行为研究专家吴凯概述了他们的购买习惯以及中国经济的反应。尽管大部分中国人倾向于买国产货，但他们也信任西方制造的产品，不遗余力地去购买它们。为了对抗海外购物热，许多国内公司努力提高它们的制造标准。结果是，吴凯相信中国未来的竞争力将会比现在更高，从而保护本国的劳动力市场，改善工作环境并促进中国的财富增长。

While stalling growth keeps many global investors awake at night, Patrick Cherrier demonstrates that even only 5 per cent growth in gross domestic product today translates to equal or even greater economic growth in absolute terms than double digit percentage growth 10 years ago.

尽管增长放缓让许多全球投资者夜不成寐，但帕特里克•谢里耶提出，按绝对值计算，如今国内生产总值中5%的增长相当于十年前的两位数增长乃至更高。

According to him, the challenges a company faces in China are not all that different from the challenges for other developing markets. Yet China provides many scaling opportunities, supported by government policies that support growth aspirations. Hence, despite its current troubles, investors and multinationals should not shun the country just yet.

谢里耶表示，一家公司在中国面临的挑战和在其他发展中市场面临的挑战没有很大不同。然而，中国提供了许多不断增长的机遇，支持增长目标的政府政策是一个有利因素。因此，尽管当前存在问题，但投资者和跨国企业还不应将中国排除在外。

To conclude, panellists touched on the risk factors that go along with doing business in China, such as the involvement of the government, an ageing population and compliance risks. As most multinationals have identified ways to successfully engage the state and understand the compliance practice, the ageing population poses the most unpredictable threat to the development of the country’s market.

总而言之，专家们谈及了在中国做生意伴随的风险因素，比如政府介入、人口老龄化和合规风险。随着大多数跨国企业找到了成功与政府打交道的方式并理解了合规实践，人口老龄化成为对中国市场发展最为不可预测的威胁。