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IMF改革终获美国国会放行 Jack Lew hails end to US foot dragging on IMF reforms

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IMF改革终获美国国会放行 Jack Lew hails end to US foot-dragging on IMF reforms

It was when Vladimir Putin chided Washington for failing to ratify reforms to the International Monetary Fund that US officials realised their country’s international standing had sunk to a new low.

当俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)指责华盛顿未能批准国际货币基金组织(IMF)改革方案的时候,美国官员认识到,他们国家的国际声誉降到了新的低点。

At the Group of 20 summit in Brisbane last year, the Russian president — virtually a pariah after his military incursions in Ukraine — won allies around the table when he rounded on President Barack Obama for failing to secure US congressional approval for an overhaul giving emerging economies a greater voice in the fund.

在去年召开的20国集团(G20)布里斯班峰会上,在军事介入乌克兰冲突后几乎已沦为国际社会弃儿的俄罗斯总统,因为抨击美国总统巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)未能推动美国国会批准IMF赋予新兴经济体更多话语权的改革方案而赢得一些盟友。

The Russian leader was hardly the first to criticise. For years, many of the world’s finance ministers have asked how the US could pretend to lead global economic policymaking when an overhaul to the fund, agreed in 2010, remained gridlocked in Washington. And when could big emerging economies get the voice at the fund they deserved?

普京不是首个提出批评的。全球许多国家的财长多年来一直在质问,在2010年达成的IMF改革方案依然在华盛顿受阻之际,美国如何还能妄称引领全球经济政策制定?大型新兴经济体何时才能在IMF得到他们应得的话语权?

The US Congress answered those questions on Friday when, after a five-year wait, it finally gave its approval to reforms that will double the fund’s firepower and give those emerging economies a bigger quota and say in IMF affairs.

美国国会在上周五回应了这些问题——在5年的等待之后,它最终批准了IMF的改革方案。按照改革方案,IMF的实力将增加一倍,新兴经济体将获得更大的份额,并在IMF事务中拥有更大的话语权。

Jack Lew, the US Treasury secretary and butt of much of the international criticism, told the Financial Times: “I don’t think it is an exaggeration to say it is a central issue in terms of our national and economic security.”

美国财政部长、国际社会很大一部分抨击的对象杰克戠(Jack Lew)向英国《金融时报》表示:“我认为可以不夸大地说,这是关系到我国国家和经济安全的一个核心问题。”

Friday’s vote was the culmination of a long campaign waged by Mr Lew and his officials and Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director. Republicans give Ms Lagarde much of the credit for their eventual support.

上周五的投票是卢及其官员以及IMF总裁克里斯蒂娜拉加德(Christine Lagarde)长期说服工作的成果。共和党人将他们最终支持改革方案归功于拉加德。

“She has been up here articulating better than [her predecessor] Dominique Strauss-Kahn and even our own administration,” said one senior Republican aide.

一位共和党高级助理表示:“她进行了比(其前任)多米尼克斯特劳斯-卡恩(Dominique Strauss-Kahn)、甚至比我国的行政当局更有说服力的陈述。”

Some also credit the economist John Taylor for pushing a trade-off provision that won over conservatives. It will force the US to campaign for the IMF to remove a 2010 “systemic exemption” to its rules that has allowed it to lend more than $38.5bn at today’s exchange rates to Greece.

一些人还赞扬了经济学家约翰泰勒(John Taylor)提出的把保守派争取过来的一条折衷条款。该条款将迫使美国推动IMF废除2010年出台的“系统性豁免”,当时引入这项豁免的目的是让IMF向希腊发放(按如今汇率计算的)逾385亿美元贷款。

But Mr Lew said in an interview that two recent developments had also shifted minds on Capitol Hill. The first was the economic crisis in Ukraine, where the US worked with the EU and IMF to come up with a rescue package in response to the conflict that Moscow has fuelled in the industrial east.

但卢在一次采访中表示,近期的两起事态也让国会山改变了主意。第一起是乌克兰的经济危机。美国与欧盟和IMF合作提出了纾困乌克兰的方案,以应对莫斯科在该国工业化的东部推波助澜的冲突。

Pulling that together proved a challenge “against the backdrop of having the world constantly complaining that the United States didn’t keep its word [because of the stalled IMF reforms]”, said Mr Lew. “You could talk to members of Congress and they understood that.”

卢表示,“在全球持续抱怨美国没有履行承诺(因为IMF改革停滞)的背景下,”拟定纾困乌克兰的方案被证明是一项挑战,“你可以与美国国会议员聊一聊,他们明白这点。”

The second development was China’s launch of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the decision of European allies to join it despite Washington’s objections — a move some analysts attributed to the lack of progress on the IMF reforms.

第二起事态是中国发起亚洲基础设施投资银行(Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,简称“亚投行”)以及欧洲盟友不顾美国反对决定加入,一些分析人士将此归因于IMF改革缺乏进展。

China is a big beneficiary of the reforms and will see its quota — and broadly its voting power — rise from 3.8 to 6 per cent.

中国是这些改革的巨大受益者,中国的配额(大致上也就是其投票权)将从3.8%升至6%。

The creation of the AIIB is seen as a challenge to the pre-eminence of US-backed institutions such as the IMF. In response, Mr Lew said: “it was critical to demonstrate that the role that the US plays in the international financial architecture will remain at the forefront of our tools to participate as a leader in the world”.

亚投行的创建被视为向IMF等由美国支持的机构的主导地位发起挑战。作为回应,卢表示:“关键是要证明这样一点,即美国在国际金融架构中发挥的作用,仍将处于我们作为世界领导者参与的各种工具的前沿”。

Some analysts see lasting damage from US foot-dragging. The delay in the US approval of the IMF reforms has “hurt US credibility, eroded the IMF’s legitimacy among emerging markets, and provided momentum for China’s efforts to shape a world monetary order more to its liking”, says Eswar Prasad, author of The Dollar Trap, a book on the US currency’s hold on the global economy.

一些分析人士认为美国的拖延将带来永久性损害。论述美元在全球经济主导地位的著作《美元陷阱》(The Dollar trap)的作者埃斯瓦尔渠拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示,美国推迟批准IMF改革“损害了美国的可信度、破坏了IMF在新兴市场中的正当性,并为中国塑造一个它更喜欢的世界货币秩序的努力提供了动力”。

“Some of the damage caused by the delay in sealing the deal on governance reforms will not be easily reversed.”

“推迟批准治理改革所造成的一些损害不会轻易扭转。”

Others are more sanguine.

其他人则较为乐观。

“It is five years too late. But it shows at least that we can get things done, even if it is too late,” said Matthew Goodman, a former Obama administration official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think-tank. “It shows the old order is not only still pretty durable, but also that it is adaptable.”

“这件事晚了5年。不过这至少表明,尽管时间迟了,但我们仍能做成一些事情,”奥巴马政府前任官员、如今任职于华盛顿智库——国际战略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的马修古德曼(Matthew Goodman)表示,“这表明,旧秩序不仅仍相当耐用,还具备很强的适应能力。”

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