朝鲜农业改革遭遇天灾挑战 Slim pickings for North Korea's farmers
To the upbeat strains of “Song of Bumper Crop”, farmers in South Hwanghae province this month performed dances to celebrate improving conditions in the North Korean countryside, “now turning into a good place to live and work thanks to... leadership of the Workers’ party”.
伴随着《丰收之歌》的欢快节奏，黄海南道(South Hwanghae)的农民们上月用舞蹈表演歌颂朝鲜农村的条件不断改善，“如今这里变成一个生活和工作的好地方，多亏了……劳动党的领导”。
The festivities, as reported by the state news agency, were in keeping with the public agenda of supreme leader Kim Jong Un. During nearly four years in power he has emphasised economic progress, vowing that his people will never have to tighten their belts again, and has overseen agricultural policy reforms that prompted hopeful comparisons with Deng Xiaoping’s early experiments in China.
官方通讯社所报道的这些喜庆活动，与朝鲜最高领袖金正恩(Kim Jong Un)的公开议程一致。执政近4年来，他强调经济发展，誓言让朝鲜民众永远不再勒紧裤腰带，并推行农业政策改革。这些措施促使人们将之与邓小平当年在中国开启的实验相提并论，令人心生希望。
But the dancing party came at the outset of what looks set to be the worst harvest of Mr Kim’s reign, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, which is forecasting a 12 per cent year-on-year fall in rice production, with a 30 per cent decline in the smaller wheat and barley crops. “Kim Jong Un has had good harvests so far,” says one South Korean official. “This will be the first time he is squeezed.”
但是，就在农民们载歌载舞之际，朝鲜似乎将迎来金正恩掌权期间收成最糟糕的秋收。据联合国粮农组织(FAO)预测，朝鲜大米产量将同比下滑12%，较小作物小麦和大麦的产量将减少30%。“金正恩执政这几年收成一直不错，”一名韩国官员称，“这将是他第一次受到压力。”
Severe drought followed by flooding has caused havoc in North Korea’s agricultural system this year, underscoring the continuing lack of food security, with the state cutting rations this summer to less than half the level needed for basic nutrition. The grim outlook has tempered optimism about the impact of agricultural reforms in recent years, as described to UN agencies by North Korean officials.
今年接连遭遇的严重旱灾和洪水，对朝鲜的农业系统造成严重破坏，凸显该国持续缺乏粮食安全的现实，政府今年夏天将粮食配给下调至不足维持基本营养所需摄入量的一半以下。朝鲜官员向联合国机构介绍称，黯淡的前景挫伤了人们对近年农业改革效果的乐观态度。
In June 2012, six months after Mr Kim took power, the state promulgated guidelines allowing smaller work teams on farms of as few as 10 people. Two years later, new guidelines declared that teams could now be as small as two households, and that they would be allowed to work the same plot for years at a time. Crucially, these changes have been combined with re allowing teams to keep up to 70 per cent of what they produce instead of handing it to the state.
2012年6月，即金正恩上台6个月后，朝鲜公布了指导方针——允许农场组建只有10人的生产小组。两年后，新的指导方针宣布，生产小组可由仅仅两个家庭组成，而且他们将被允许在同一块地连续耕作数年。关键是，这些改变伴随着允许生产小组保留至多70%收成（而不是上缴国家）的改革措施。
State media did not announce the changes but have referred to them. “The advantage of the ‘field responsibility’ system is that the workforce at each farm regards a small plot as their own,” Ji Myong Su, head of agriculture management research at Pyongyang’s Academy of Agricultural Science, told the state Tongil Sinbo newspaper in June. The speed of grain planting had doubled at the farms where the new system had been implemented, involving some teams as small as four people, he added.
官方媒体并未宣布这些变化，但提到了相关做法。“‘土地责任制’的优势是每个农场的劳动力都把小农田当成自己的土地，”平壤农业科学研究院农业管理研究负责人纪明洙(Ji Myong Su) 6月向官媒《统一新报》(Tongil Sinbo)表示。他补充称，在实施新制度的农场中（包含一些4人小组），栽种谷物的速度加快了一倍。
Another change in 2014 was a dramatic increase in the maximum permitted size of “kitchen gardens”, from 100 to 3,300 square metres, which will encourage more private food production, says Cristina Coslet, an FAO official for east Asia. “I could see the difference between the fields and kitchen gardens [during a 2012 visit] — they look after [the latter] carefully and water them.”
2014年的另一个变化是允许家庭菜园的面积上限戏剧性扩大，从100平米扩大至3300平米。联合国粮农组织负责东亚的官员克里斯蒂娜科斯利特(Cristina Coslet)称，这将鼓励更多个人生产食物。“（2012年访问朝鲜期间）我可以看出农田和家庭菜园的区别——他们小心地照料着（家庭菜园），不忘记浇水。”
Testimony from defectors and visitors to North Korea suggests that the reforms have been implemented in most agricultural communities but with wide differences between regions, says Kwon Tae-jin, head of North Korea research at Seoul’s GS & J Institute.
首尔农业智库——GS & J研究所朝鲜研究主管权泰金(Kwon Tae-jin)称，叛逃者以及访问过朝鲜的人士的证言似乎表明，大多数农业社区都落实了这些改革，但是不同地区之间存在较大差别。
The changes are part of a long-term expansion of market dynamics in this supposedly planned economy since the famine of the mid-1990s, precipitated by years of under-investment in food production and the abrupt withdrawal of Soviet aid. The public food distribution system broke down, resulting in the starvation of hundreds of thousands, and forcing the survivors to turn to informal markets .
上世纪90年代中期，朝鲜在粮食生产多年投资不足和前苏联突然切断援助的共同作用下发生饥荒，之后朝鲜开始在其号称的计划经济中推行扩大市场活力的长期举措，金正恩推行的改革是这项长期努力的一部分。饥荒期间，公共粮食分配系统瘫痪，导致数十万人饿死，幸存者不得不求助于黑市。
Even now, 70 per cent of North Koreans rely primarily on the public distribution system for food, the FAO estimates. But provision can be sporadic, and even the officially declared rations are well below the government’s nominal daily target of 573g of cereal equivalent per person: enough to provide the 2,000 calories widely seen as a minimum for good health. After bad rainfall hit this year’s spring harvest, the government cut the daily personal ration to just 250g.
联合国粮农组织估计，即使是现在，朝鲜70%的人口仍然主要依赖公共分配系统获得食物。但是，食物供应得不到保障，就连官方公布的配给标准也远低于朝鲜政府规定的每日每人573克口粮的名义目标——被广泛认为是足够提供2000卡路里以维持健康的最低摄入量。降雨偏少影响今年春收后，朝鲜政府将每日每人配给标准削减至仅仅250克。
The latest cuts, by far the most severe since Mr Kim took power, are set to compound a dire situation in much of the rest of the country. A 2012 UN survey found that more than a quarter of North Korean children under 5 had moderate or severe chronic malnutrition.
此次配给下调绝对是自金正恩执政以来最严峻的，预计将加剧朝鲜大片地区的糟糕境况。2012年一项联合国调查发现，朝鲜5岁以下儿童中，四分之一以上存在中度或重度长期营养不良。
Even so, the reforms have provided a significant boost to productivity and helped mitigate the impact of this year’s drought, argues Andrei Lankov, a professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University, noting that the 2013 harvest was the biggest for 25 years.
首尔国民大学(Kookmin University)教授安德烈瀠科夫(Andrei Lankov)认为，尽管如此，农业改革对生产率起到了显著提振效果，有助于缓和今年旱灾的影响。他指出2013年是朝鲜25年来收成最好的一年。
Yet by encouraging farmers to retain and sell their produce the government is continuing its dance with powerful market mechanisms that threaten to erode its authority, he says.
不过，兰科夫称，通过鼓励农民保留并销售自己种植的农产品，朝鲜政府正在继续与强大的市场机制周旋，后者可能会侵蚀其权威。
