美国企业首季盈利预测遭下调 US first quarter earnings outlook dims on falling oil

Wall Street analysts have slashed expectations for US earnings in the first quarter as companies grapple with plummeting oil prices and slow economic growth.

华尔街分析师大幅调降了对第一季度美国企业盈利的预期，原因是油价暴跌和经济增长放缓令企业难以应对。

The growing pessimism comes amid a brutal start to the year for the stock market during which the S&P 500 has been marked by volatility as the outlook for global economic growth darkens, led by uncertainty over the slowdown in China.

人们的悲观情绪越来越强烈之际，随着全球经济增长前景变得黯淡（尤其是中国经济放缓带来不确定性），股市今年出现了极为糟糕的开局，标普500(S&P 500)指数出现了大幅波动。

At the outset of the year, analysts had forecast a return to growth of 0.6 per cent in US first-quarter earnings per share on a year-on-year basis, according to FactSet. They have since marked estimates down to a decline of 7.4 per cent.

根据FactSet的数据，今年伊始分析师们预计美国第一季度每股盈利会恢复增长，同比增幅达到0.6%。自那以来，他们已经把盈利估计下调至降低7.4%。

“It does appear that companies are having difficulty gaining traction in this low-growth environment and that is putting downward pressure on earnings,” said Alan Gayle, director of asset allocation at RidgeWorth Investments.

RidgeWorth Investments资产配置主任艾伦•盖尔(Alan Gayle)表示：“企业在这种低增长环境下似乎难以获得增长动力，这给企业盈利带来了下行压力。”

The potential quarter of shrinking profits follows the worst earnings season since the aftermath of the financial crisis during which earnings have fallen for three consecutive quarters and revenues have fallen for four.

在这一企业利润可能缩水的季度之前，美国遭遇了自金融危机爆发以来的最差业绩报告季，企业盈利连续三个季度下跌，营收连续四个季度下滑。

Early forecasts that 2016 would provide a turnround have been re-evaluated largely because of an expected earnings drop of 93 per cent at energy companies, as the price of crude oil dropped to a 13-year low. That is nearly double the decrease analysts had projected for the sector two months ago.

起初，人们曾预计2016年会出现止跌回升的现象。然而，这一预期已在很大程度上被重新评估，原因是能源企业因原油价格跌至13年低点而致预期盈利下滑93%，这一下跌幅度几乎是分析师们两个月前对该产业预计降幅的两倍。

Forecasts were for revenues for S&P 500 companies to shrink 0.6 per cent, while at year-end analysts were looking for growth of 2.6 per cent.

对标普500成分股企业的预期是营收缩水0.6%，而在去年年底分析师曾预计会增长2.6%。

Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock, said: “We have a world where global growth is expected to have come down, financial market conditions have tightened and energy prices have fallen further. All of these are headwinds at the market level and not a great environment to grow the top line.”

贝莱德(BlackRock)首席投资策略师拉斯•凯斯特里奇(Russ Koesterich)表示：“我们面临的是一个全球增长预计将会放缓、金融市场状况趋紧、能源价格进一步下滑的世界。所有这些都是市场层面上的不利因素，对营收的增长十分不利。”

Neither top nor bottom line growth is expected to return until the second half of the year and investors say the worsening outlook could mean further stock market declines.

预计不论营收还是利润，在今年下半年以前都不会恢复增长。投资者表示，不断恶化的前景可能意味着股市会进一步下跌。

“Sentiment has stabilised recently,” Mr Gayle said. “The negative revisions I don’t think have really sunk in. From that perspective, I think there is more downside risk in the market as we get closer to first-quarter earnings season.”

“市场情绪最近已趋于稳定。”盖尔表示。“我认为这些负面的下调还未真正被人们认识到。从这个角度来说，我认为随着一季度业绩公布季节日益临近，市场还存在更多下行风险。”

Companies have also disappointed investors with their own outlooks.

企业自身的前景展望也令投资者失望。

About 110 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for the first quarter with 88 issuing projections below analysts’ expectations, worse than the five-year average of 72 per cent.

标普500指数的成分股企业中，大约有110家企业发布了第一季度每股盈利指引，其中88家企业发布的预期低于分析师的预测，这一比例高于72%的五年平均。