中国贸易形势仍然严峻 China warns of weaker trade in as foreign demand falls

China, the world’s biggest exporter, delivered a gloomy prognosis for the global economy, warning that falling foreign demand would result in weaker trade at home this year.

中国作出了黯淡的全球经济预测，这个全球最大出口国警告外需下降将导致今年贸易疲软。

The warning came as the country’s customs office revealed better than expected trade in December, the same month the renminbi saw its second steepest fall since 2005.

发出这一警告之际，中国海关公布12月贸易情况好于预期，同一个月人民币兑美元汇率出现2005年以来第二大跌幅。

Economists hailed the improved Chinese export data in December, saying a widening trade surplus could lend support to the renminbi, where declines this month have sparked a stock market sell-off.

经济学家们欢呼中国12月出口数据出现起色，表示贸易顺差扩大可能有助于支持人民币。本月人民币下跌引发了股市抛售。

China’s exports, measured in US dollars, declined 1.4 per cent in December month-on-month, narrowing the 6.8 per cent fall seen in November, the customs service said yesterday.

中国海关总署昨日表示，12月中国出口额（以美元计算）环比下降1.4%，比11月6.8%的降幅有所收窄。

Imports fell 7.6 per cent during December, compared with November’s 8.7 per cent drop, as falling commodity prices continued to take a toll. As a result, China’s trade surplus widened to $60.1bn in the final month of 2015.

12月进口下降7.6%，而11月的降幅为8.7%，大宗商品价格下降继续产生影响。其结果是，中国的贸易顺差在2015年最后一个月扩大至601亿美元。

Economists said the figures were better than expected: a Bloomberg poll had forecast an 8 per cent decline.

经济学家们表示该数据好于预期；彭博社(Bloomberg)此前预计跌幅为8%。

While cautioning against pinning too much on one month’s figures, Julia Wang, Greater China economist for HSBC bank, said: “It should take some pressure off the renminbi in the near term.”

汇丰(HSBC)大中华区经济学家王然(Julia Wang)在告诫不要过于看重一个月数据的同时表示：“这将在短期内减轻人民币的一部分压力。”

Analysts scoured the figures for clues as to whether the depreciation of the renminbi has improved the competitiveness of the Chinese economy.

分析师们在这些数据中寻找线索，以推断人民币贬值是否提高了中国经济的竞争力。

Analysts were split on the impact of December’s 1.5 per cent drop in the renminbi against the US dollar on the trade data.

但在12月人民币兑美元汇率下跌1.5%对贸易数据产生了什么影响的问题上，分析师们意见分歧。

Commerzbank said the weaker renminbi probably contributed to the stronger trade performance. Ms Wang, however, noted that the renminbi had been far more stable against the basket of foreign currencies tracked by China’s central bank — a better trade reference since the US accounts for just one-fifth of China’s trade.

德国商业银行(Commerzbank)表示，人民币走弱很可能促进了比较强劲的贸易表现。汇丰的王然却指出，相对于中国央行追踪的一篮子货币，人民币汇率稳定得多，这是个更好的贸易参考，因为美国只占中国贸易的五分之一。

“The amount of weakness that has taken place with respect to basket of currencies is far more modest, so it shouldn’t have been the biggest factor behind the trade number,” she said.

王然表示：“相对于一篮子货币而言，人民币的走弱程度要小得多，因此它不应是影响12月贸易数字的最大因素。”

Figures for the whole of 2015 showed China’s exports contracted 2.8 per cent and imports fell 14.1 per cent, in US dollar terms.

2015年全年数据显示，中国出口（以美元计算）萎缩2.8%，进口下跌14.1%。

Commerzbank said in a research note that slowing imports highlighted the country’s sluggish demand for commodities.

德国商业银行在一份研究报告中表示，进口放缓凸显中国对大宗商品需求低迷。

“This reflects China’s transition towards a more consumption-driven growth model, which has damped demand for bulk commodities,” analysts at Commerzbank said, adding it was also attributable to a slowdown in the property market.

该行分析师表示：“这反映了中国转向在更大程度上由消费驱动的增长模式，大宗商品需求因而受到抑制。”他们还表示房地产市场低迷也是原因之一。