10月中国贸易数据大幅下降 China trade slumps on waning demand

China’s trade with the rest of the world fell sharply in October from a year earlier, with imports of raw materials particularly hard hit as slowing Chinese investment feeds through into weaker demand in the world’s biggest trader of goods.

中国与世界其他地区的贸易10月同比大幅下滑，原材料进口受到尤其沉重的打击，中国投资放缓削弱了这个全球最大商品贸易国的需求。

Chinese imports fell 18.8 per cent in October from the same month a year earlier, a slight improvement from the 20.4 per cent year-on-year fall in September. Sharply lower prices of oil and other commodities also helped scythe the bill.

10月中国进口同比下降18.8%，降幅较9月的20.4%略有改善。石油和其他大宗商品价格大幅走低也帮助压低了进口总值。

Exports declined 6.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, deteriorating from the 3.7 per cent fall the previous month as weak global demand and higher Chinese costs led to slumping shipments of the cheap Chinese goods that have flowed to the world in the last decade.

10月中国出口同比下降6.9%，较上月3.7%的降幅有所恶化。疲弱的全球需求和中国成本上涨导致过去10年期间从中国大量流向世界的廉价商品减少。

At the start of the year, the ruling Communist party set a target of 6 per cent growth in trade for this year but total trade has now fallen by just over 8 per cent in the first ten months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier.

今年初，执政的共产党设定了今年贸易增长6%的目标，但2015年头十个月的贸易总额同比下降逾8%。

“Soft domestic demand and the decline in commodity prices continued to weigh on China’s import growth,” said Liu Li-gang, an economist at ANZ bank. “Looking ahead, China’s export sector will continue to face significant headwinds.”

“疲软的国内需求和大宗商品价格下跌继续拖累中国的进口增长，”澳新银行(ANZ bank)经济学家刘利刚表示。“展望未来，中国的出口行业仍将面临一些重大不利因素。”

Much of the decline in Chinese imports stems from lower commodity prices, which in turn are a result of falling overall demand from China, long the world’s biggest consumer of materials such as iron ore, coal and copper.

中国进口下降在很大程度上源于大宗商品价格走低，而后者反过来又是中国总体需求下降的结果。中国已经多年是铁矿石、煤炭、铜等材料的世界最大消费国。

Stripping out price, volumes of Chinese imports in October fell a more modest 2.6 per cent from a year earlier, according to estimates from Oxford Economics.

据牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)估算，若剔除价格影响，中国10月进口量同比降幅为2.6%。

The fall in demand for industrial bulk commodities was particularly pronounced. Huge oversupply in China’s real estate and manufacturing sectors has damped investment in new capacity in recent months, denting demand for all kinds of raw materials.

对工业大宗商品需求的下降尤为明显。中国房地产和制造业的严重供应过剩在近几个月抑制了对新产能的投资，进而削弱了对各种原材料的需求。

Iron ore imports fell 12.3 per cent by volume in October from the previous month and 4.9 per cent from the same month a year earlier while coal imports were down 21.4 per cent from September and 30.7 per cent from a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data.

根据中国海关的数据，10月铁矿石进口量较上月环比下降12.3%，同比下降4.9%，而煤炭进口环比下降21.4%，同比下降30.7%。

Analysts say headline import figures may start to improve in the coming months since commodity price falls were particularly pronounced at the end of 2014, which will mean smaller year-on-year falls in Chinese imports in value terms.

分析师们表示，未来几个月整体进口数据可能开始好转，因为大宗商品价格下跌在2014年底尤为显著，这将意味着按价值计算的中国进口同比降幅较小。

Meanwhile, exports are expected to continue falling due to the combination of weak global demand and higher prices, as well as China’s decision to effectively re-peg the renminbi to the strengthening dollar.

与此同时，预计出口将继续下降，原因是全球需求疲软而价格上涨，以及中国实际上决定让人民币汇率再度盯住正在走强的美元。

Despite an abortive attempt in August to devalue the renminbi — a move that rocked global markets and was quickly abandoned by Beijing — China’s trade-weighted exchange rate was 8.5 per cent stronger in September than a year earlier, making Chinese exports less competitive.

尽管曾在8月份做出让人民币贬值的不了了之的尝试（此举震撼了全球市场，很快就被北京方面放弃），但9月份中国的贸易加权汇率同比上升8.5%，这意味着中国出口产品的竞争力有所减弱。

“Given the unfavourable reaction to the August depreciation, we think any further depreciation will not take place soon,” said Louis Kuijs, an economist at Oxford Economics based in Hong Kong. “In our view the October trade data keep pressure on [the government] for more domestic easing.”

“考虑到8月贬值行动引发负面反应，我们认为近期不会出台进一步的贬值，”常驻香港的牛津经济研究院经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)表示。“我们认为10月的贸易数据将继续（使政府）面临压力，要求其在国内出台更多宽松政策。”

In the first 10 months of the year, Chinese exports to the US were up 5.2 per cent from the same period in 2014, while exports to countries in Asean were up 3.7 per cent, according to Chinese customs figures.

根据中国海关的数据，今年头十个月，中国对美国出口同比增长5.2%，对东盟(Asean)国家出口同比增长3.7%。

Exports to the EU, Japan and Hong Kong — which serves as a transit point for exports to many other parts of the world — fell by 4.1 per cent, 9.5 per cent and 12.2 per cent respectively.

对欧盟、日本和香港（香港是中国向世界其它很多地区出口的一个中转站）出口分别下跌4.1%、9.5%和12.2%。