中国10月贸易数据大幅下降 贸易顺差创纪录

Beijing — China’s trade figures missed expectations by a wide margin in October, data showed Sunday, reinforcing views that the Chinese economy will have to do more to stimulate domestic demand.

北京——周日公布的数据显示，中国10月的贸易数据远低于预期。这加强了中国经济将不得不采取更多措施刺激内需的观点。

Although Beijing has repeatedly cut interest rates, the latest data, which show another monthly drop in net trade, indicate persistent weakness in demand at home and abroad.

尽管北京已多次降息，但最新数据显示，上月的净贸易额再次下跌。这表明国内外的需求持续疲软。

October exports fell 6.9 percent, compared with last year, down for a fourth month, while imports slipped 18.8 percent, leaving the country with a record high trade surplus of $61.64 billion, the General Administration of Customs said Sunday.

中国海关总署周日表示，10月出口同比下降6.9%，连续第四个月下滑，同时进口下降18.8%，导致中国贸易顺差达到了创纪录的616.4亿美元。

Economists had expected dollar- denominated exports to fall 3 percent and imports to decline 16 percent, an improvement over September’s drop of 3.7 percent for exports and 20.4 percent for imports.

经济学家原本预期，以美元计价的出口额和进口额分别会下降3%和16%，与9月3.7%和20.4%的收缩幅度相比会有所改善。

But the weak export numbers show that China might be getting less of a lift than hoped from overseas holiday shopping, while falling commodity import volumes highlight stubborn weakness in demand from important sectors like real estate and construction that Beijing has been trying to revive.

但疲软的出口数据表明，海外节日采购对中国的提振不及预期，而不断下滑的大宗商品进口量则突显出，房地产和建筑等重要领域的需求疲软依旧。北京一直试图重振这些领域。

China’s services sector, which has been one of the few bright spots in the economy, also lost steam in October.

服务业一直是中国经济为数不多的亮点之一。但10月，服务业也失去了动力。

“We see that the trade will unlikely turn around the momentum in the near term, and the RMB exchange rate will be under downward pressure, especially as Fed signals to hike soon,” said Zhou Hao, a China economist with the Paris-based Commerzbank, referring to China’s currency, the renminbi and to the possibility that the United States Federal Reserve Bank may increase interest rates.

“我们认为，贸易势头近期不太会扭转，人民币汇率将面临下行压力，特别是由于美联储发出信号，表示很快将会加息，”德国商业银行(Commerzbank)中国经济专家周浩说。

The decline in October exports was led by trade with developed economies, according to customs data.

从海关数据来看，与发达经济体的贸易引领了10月的出口下降。

Shipments to the United States dipped 0.9 percent from the previous year. Exports to the European Union dropped 2.9 percent and exports to Japan fell 7.7 percent.

发往美国的出货量同比减少0.9%。面向欧盟和日本的出口分别下降了2.9%和7.7%。

Combined exports and imports are down 8.5 percent for the first 10 months of the year, well below the full-year official target for growth of 6 percent.

今年前十个月的进出口总额下滑8.5%，远低于全年增长6%的官方目标。

Last week, the Ministry of Commerce said the value of China’s exports this year was likely to remain similar to 2014 levels, while imports could drop sharply in the fourth quarter.

上周，商务部表示，今年的出口额可能会与2014年持平，而四季度进口额则可能会大幅下降。

For 2016, the ministry expects to see steady growth in combined exports and imports as policy measures to support the trade sector take effect.

商务部预计，随着支持贸易领域的政策生效，2016年进出口总额会稳步增长。

To lower social financial costs for companies, the central bank cut interest rates in late October for the sixth time in less than a year and again reduced the amount of cash that banks must set aside as reserves. It has also guided the renminbi into weaker territory against the dollar, but few believe Chinese exporters would benefit from anything short of a drastic devaluation.

为降低企业的社会融资成本，中国央行10月末再次降息并降低存款准备金率。这是中国在不到一年的时间里第六次降息。央行还引导人民币对美元贬值，但几乎没有人认为中国的出口商会从中受益，除非人民币急剧贬值。