美国3月贸易逆差创新高
The US in March recorded its biggest monthly trade deficit since the 2008 global financial crisis, fuelling concerns that the economy shrank in the first three months of the year.
3月美国出现自2008年全球金融危机以来最大的单月贸易逆差，引发美国经济在今年头三个月出现收缩的忧虑。The politically sensitive goods and services deficit rose to $51.4bn in March, up more than 40 per cent from the $35.9bn recorded in February. Exports rose less than 1 per cent while imports grew 7.7 per cent amid increased US demand for cars and mobile phones.
3月，政治上十分敏感的商品和服务贸易逆差增至514亿美元，相比2月份的359亿美元增长了逾40%。随着美国对汽车和手机的需求增加，美国的进口增长了7.7%，而出口增长还不到1%。
The figures made for awkward reading for US policy makers. They came as Barack Obama, the president, attempts to make the case for a Pacific Rim trade pact with Japan and 10 other economies, amid criticism that past deals have caused deficits to balloon and triggered an exodus of jobs overseas.
这样的数据让美国的政策制定者感到尴尬。这些数据发布之际，美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)正试图证明与日本和其他10个经济体达成一项环太平洋贸易协定的合理性，而外界则批评过去的贸易协定已导致逆差大幅增加，并致使工作机会流失到海外地区。
The data also reinforced the dilemma facing the US Federal Reserve as it ponders when to raise rates and bring monetary policy back to something approaching normality.
这些数据还让正在考虑何时上调利率，使货币政策尽量回复常态的美联储(Fed)面临更加窘迫的两难境地。On the one hand the increase in imports was a clear sign of strength in the consumption-driven US economy with imports of consumer goods rising strongly. The March figures were also distorted by a strike at west coast ports, which is now over.
一方面，进口的增长，尤其是消费品进口的强势增长，是靠消费拉动的美国经济走强的明显标志。3月的数据还受到现已结束的美国西海岸港口罢工的影响。On the other hand, yesterday’s data make it likely that already anaemic economic growth figures for the first quarter will be revised downwards, with economists predicting a contraction.
另一方面，昨日发布的数据可能使本已乏力的第一季度经济增长数据面临下修，经济学家在预测经济出现收缩。Last week’s gross domestic product data, which showed the economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.2 per cent, assumed that the trade deficit dragged growth down by 1.25 percentage points. But the worse than expected March data meant first-quarter growth would end up another 0.5-0.7 percentage points lower, economists said.
上周的国内生产总值(GDP)数据显示美国经济的年增长率仅为0.2%，该数据假设贸易逆差将GDP增长拉低了1.25个百分点。但经济学家们表示，坏于预期的3月逆差数据意味着，第一季度增长率最终还要下调0.5到0.7个百分点。The big question now is how long the slowdown in the US economy will continue. Fed policy makers have said they believe the overall slowdown has been due, at least partly, to temporary factors, including the ports strike and a harsh winter in the east.
现在最大的问题是美国的经济放缓会持续多长时间。美联储的政策制定者表示，他们相信美国经济的总体放缓至少应部分归咎于临时性因素，包括港口罢工和美国东部严寒的冬季。Many economists still expect the US economy to bounce back in the second quarter.
许多经济学家仍然预期美国经济将在第二季度回弹。A 20 per cent surge in consumer goods imports in March and a 10.2 per cent increase in car imports were signs that the economy is strong, said Paul Ashworth, chief US economist for consultants Capital Economics.
咨询公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的首席美国经济学家保罗•阿什沃思(Paul Ashworth)表示，3月消费品进口激增20%，汽车进口增长10.2%，这些迹象表明美国经济表现强劲。The consumer goods imports figures showed that “US retailers anticipate a big pick-up in domestic consumption growth in the second quarter”, he said. “Accordingly, we still think that second-quarter GDP growth will be above 3 per cent annualised.”
消费品进口数据表明“美国的零售商预测国内消费增长将在第二季度大幅上升，”他说，“相应地，我们依然认为第二季度的GDP年化增长率将高于3%。”The latest data showed the US trade deficit with China rose $10.5bn to $37.8bn in March with imports increasing $10.9bn to $47.1bn.
最新数据表明，3月美国对华贸易逆差上升105亿美元至378亿美元，其中进口上升109亿美元至471亿美元。The deficit with Japan, the other big economy in the Pacific Rim trade talks, increased to $6.3bn in March thanks to a $2.2bn rise in imports.
对于环太平洋贸易谈判中的重要经济体日本，3月美国贸易逆差上升至63亿美元，其中进口上升了22亿美元。
