"印度龟"有望超过"中国兔"
When India put a cut-price satellite in orbit around Mars last September, one media company could not resist a comparison with China. Although the “Indian elephant” was losing to the “Chinese dragon” in most other respects, NDTV’s website said, at least Delhi was beating Beijing in the race to the red planet.
去年9月，当印度把一颗造价低廉的卫星送入火星轨道时，一家媒体公司忍不住拿印度与中国作对比。新德里电视台(NDTV)网站说，虽然“印度象”在其他大多数方面都不如“中国龙”，但德里最起码在奔向红色行星的赛跑中跑赢了北京。
Meanwhile, back on planet earth, India may be about to steal another march on China. After years of peering over the Himalayas in awe at China’s superior growth rates, there is now a realistic prospect of India overtaking China on that measure too. The switch could happen as early as next year. That would make India the world’s fastest-growing large economy, finally thrusting it into the limelight after decades in China’s shadow. It might even bring democracy back into fashion. Delhi consensus anyone?
把目光转回到地球，印度可能即将在另一场赛跑中偷偷跑到中国前头。多年来，印度一直怀着敬畏之心注视着喜马拉雅山另一边中国的超高增长率。如今，印度在这项指标上也有了赶超中国的现实可能性。这种赶超可能最早在明年就会发生。若真的如此，印度届时将成为全球增长最快的大型经济体。在中国的影子下度过了几十年后，印度终于要一跃成为万众瞩目的焦点，甚至有可能推动民主再度成为一种时尚。是否有人想讨论下“德里共识”？The idea is not as outrageous as it sounds. For years, we had been used to China growing at double-digit rates. Now it is slowing. China’s labour force is shrinking and manufacturing is losing its power. More fundamentally, Chinese leaders recognise the need to change a model that relies too heavily on credit and energy inputs. China’s growth has already dropped to below 7.5 per cent. Before long, Beijing will probably allow it to settle down somewhere in the 6-7 per cent range. It would certainly take that option over a crisis, which could temporarily send growth much lower.
上述观点并不像听起来那么离谱。多年来，我们已经习惯了中国以两位数的速率增长。如今，中国的增长正在放缓。中国的劳动力正在萎缩，制造业正逐渐失去动力。更重要的是，中国领导人认识到有必要改变这种过于依赖信贷和能源投入的经济增长模式。中国的增长速度已跌破7.5%，用不了多久，北京方面很可能会允许增速稳定在6%到7%之间的某一点上。它肯定宁愿选择这样、也不愿选择一场危机，因为危机可能会在短期内让增速降到低得多的水平上。
India, meanwhile, may be about to go the other way. A Goldman Sachs report says the country is on the verge of a new growth cycle. The economy is in better shape. The current account and fiscal deficits have fallen, as has previously stubborn inflation. Cheap oil is a boon.
印度则可能将朝着相反的方向前进。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一份报告称，印度即将进入新一轮增长周期，它的经济形势要好于以前。印度的经常账户赤字和财政赤字已经收窄，之前居高不下的通胀也已下降。廉价石油是一个福音。India also has political momentum. Although some are disappointed at what they regard as a timid start by Narendra Modi, the prime minister, there is a palpable sense of optimism these days. In theory, it should not take much to get the economy ticking over more effectively after a few years in the doldrums, when growth dropped to 5 per cent. So when might India overtake China? The World Bank puts it at 2017. In its latest forecasts, it predicts India will be growing at 7 per cent in that year, with China down to 6.9 per cent.
在政治上，印度也呈现出积极的势头。虽然有些人对印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)迈出的第一步感到失望（他们认为这第一步迈得不够大胆），但近来明显能感受到一股乐观情绪。理论上讲，印度经济在经历了几年的低潮期（其间增速降至5%）后，应该不会费太大力就能提高运行效率。那么，印度可能会在什么时候超过中国呢？世界银行(World Bank)认为是2017年。世行在其最新的预测中预计，2017年印度的增长速度将达到7%，而中国将降至6.9%。Predictions, especially such precise ones, should be taken with a generous helping of chilli powder (or oyster sauce if you are reading this in China). We have been here before. A few years ago, it was fashionable — especially in India — to describe the Indian tortoise as being on the verge of overtaking the Chinese hare. That prediction ended up as turtle soup.
这种预测——尤其是如此精确的预测——得就着一大份辣椒面（或是蚝油，如果你是中国读者的话）“享用”。我们有过这种经验。几年前曾流行将印度形容为一只马上要超过中国兔的乌龟——这种观点在印度国内尤其常见。这一预测最终变成了一碗龟汤。What could stop India this time? There are several things, but I shall stick to two. First, Mr Modi may find it harder than he imagines to remove bottlenecks. Reforms aimed at boosting manufacturing or encouraging capital investment may prove tougher to implement at national level than they did when he was running Gujarat. Besides, some reforms, such as relaxing the rules on foreign ownership of insurance companies, may not prove to be the magic bullets that industry lobbyists claim.
那么这一次，有什么能阻挡住印度呢？这样的障碍有几个，但我只讲两个。首先，莫迪可能会发现，扫除瓶颈比他想象的要难。事实可能会证明，在国家层面上实施旨在提振制造业或鼓励资本投资的改革，其难度要大于他掌管古吉拉特邦时在该邦实施这些改革。事实可能还会证明，有些改革——比如放宽对外资持股印度保险公司的规定——可能并不是行业游说团体所称的那种灵丹妙药。Second, and perhaps more fundamental, democratic India is still caught in an ideological battle over where to strike the balance between pursuit of growth and protection of the environment and land rights. The debate, ferocious at times, is being waged in the courts and in the public arena. In recent months, a leaked report by India’s intelligence bureau claimed that foreign-backed non-governmental organisations were using environmental concerns as a pretext to stymie India’s development. Conspiracy theories aside, tussles between activists and industrialists have held projects back. South Korea’s Posco has been fighting with local residents for years over plans to build a $12bn steel mill in the eastern state of Orissa. Vedanta, an Indian mining company, has failed to secure permission to mine bauxite in the same state because the nearby hills are held sacred by local people. Balancing the ambition to grow with other legitimate interests is an unsolved puzzle.
其次，或许也是更根本的，民主的印度仍困在意识形态斗争里，还在纠结于在追求增长与保护环境和土地权利之间求得平衡。这场时不时变得如火如荼的辩论，眼下正在法庭和公共舞台上上演。近几个月，一份外泄的印度情报部门报告称，外国支持的非政府组织以环境问题为借口阻碍印度的发展。先不谈什么阴谋论，行动主义者与实业家之间的角力已导致若干工程搁浅。韩国的浦项制铁(Posco)为了在印度东部奥里萨邦建立一座120亿美元的钢厂，几年来一直在与当地居民斗争。还是在奥里萨邦，印度矿企韦丹塔(Vedanta)未能拿到开采铝土矿的许可，因为附近山脉被当地居民奉为圣山。在实现增长的雄心与其他合法权益之间求得平衡是一个仍未得到解答的难题。In a very different context, similar concerns are playing out in China. Beijing, at least rhetorically, is now putting as much emphasis on the quality of growth as on the quantity. Responding to the central government’s lead, several cities have dropped gross domestic product as a performance metric and are emphasising environmental protection and poverty reduction instead. It would be an irony if India finally overtakes China in terms of headline growth just as the concept goes out of fashion.
虽然大环境与印度截然不同，但中国也出现了类似的担忧。北京方面正将经济增长的质量和数量摆在同等重要的位置上，至少口头上是如此。为了响应中央政府的号召，一些城市已经不再把国内生产总值(GDP)当作一项绩效考核指标，转而强调环保和减贫。如果印度恰好是在整体增速的概念变得过时之际终于在整体增速上超过中国，那将是一大讽刺。
