美欧移民策略为何不同

What should western politicians be most worried about: growth, inequality, the environment, education? To judge from today’s discourse, the answer seems to be none of the above. Instead, in the past month, both Barack Obama, US president, and David Cameron, UK prime minister, have made big speeches on immigration. At the weekend Swiss voters rejected a proposal virtually to end the flow of incomers to their country. But anti-immigration parties have made strong gains in a variety of other European nations, including Sweden and Italy, in the past year.

西方政界人士最应该担忧的是什么？增长、不平等、环境还是教育？从当前流行话题来判断，答案似乎不在其中。相反，一个多月来，美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)和英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)都就移民问题发表了重要讲话。日前，瑞士选民否决了一项几乎不再接纳新移民的提案。但在过去一年中，反移民政党在其他多个欧洲国家——包括瑞典和意大利——取得了重大进展。

Immigration is now clearly at the very centre of political debate in the west. But, in the past couple of weeks, the European and US debates have branched off in different directions.

眼下，移民问题显然是西方政治辩论的核心。但在过去几周内，欧洲和美国在这一问题上的辩论走向出现了分化。

Two weeks ago Mr Obama announced plans to shield millions of illegal immigrants from potential deportation. For all the bitter divisions his proposals stirred up, the likelihood is that they will ultimately help to push the American debate in a more liberal direction.

不久前，奥巴马宣布了将使数百万非法移民免于被驱逐的计划。尽管他提议采取的措施激起了很大争议，最终却可能有助于推动美国移民辩论朝着自由主义的方向演变。

In Europe, by contrast, the rise of populist anti-immigration parties, such as Britain’s UK Independence party and France’s National Front, is still driving the debate to the right.

相比之下，英国独立党(UKIP)和法国国民阵线(National Front)等欧洲民粹主义反移民政党的崛起正将移民辩论推向更右倾的方向。

Mr Cameron announced plans to restrict welfare benefits for legal migrants from the rest of the EU and to force those who fail to find a job to leave the country. Across the Channel, meanwhile, Nicolas Sarkozy, the former (and possibly future) president of France, has called for the repeal of the Schengen rules that have dismantled frontier controls within the EU.

卡梅伦最近宣布的计划将限制来自欧盟其他国家的合法移民的福利，并强制那些没有找到工作的移民离境。与此同时，在英吉利海峡的另一边，法国前总统（或许以后还会再度担任总统）尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)呼吁废止在欧盟境内取消边境管控的申根协定。

Despite the differences in rhetoric, the immigration numbers across the rich world are strikingly similar. Estimates by the OECD of the foreign-born population in its member states in 2011 was 11-13 per cent for the US, the UK, Germany and France. Switzerland, with a foreign-born population of 27.3 per cent, is a real outlier – which might account for the special vehemence of the debate there.

尽管论调不同，发达国家的移民数据却惊人地相似。据经合组织(OECD)估测，2011年在其成员国中，美国、英国、德国和法国的外国出生人口比例均在11%到13%之间。而瑞士的这一比例达27.3%，是发达国家中真正的异数，或许这也解释了为何瑞士的移民辩论格外激烈。

Rich countries are clearly a magnet for migrants from poorer nations and the pull is growing stronger. According to the OECD, the flow of global migration doubled between 2000 and 2010, compared to the preceding decade.

对来自较贫穷国家的移民来说，富裕国家显然就像一块磁石，而且吸引力还在不断增强。根据经合组织的数据，2000年到2010年间，全球移民的流动规模比上个十年翻了一番。

Globalisation has made both travel and communication much easier. The comparative wealth of western Europe or North America is broadcast across the world. Established immigrant communities in developed nations can help newcomers and provide legal routes into the country. And, where there is no legal route, there are always people- smugglers and the black economy.

全球化使旅行和通讯更加便利。西欧和北美的相对富裕在世界各地可谓家喻户晓。发达国家成熟的移民社区能帮助新来的移民，并提供进入该国的合法途径。而且，就算没有合法途径，也总会有蛇头和黑市经济。

Immigrants often do jobs that locals are unwilling or unable to perform. But they are also routinely blamed for holding down wages and for putting pressure on public services and housing. With levels of inequality rising in the west, it is not hard for populist politicians to argue that limousine liberals are benefiting from cheap, immigrant labour– while evading the social consequences.

移民常常从事本地人不愿或不能从事的工作。但人们也时常指责移民拉低了薪资水平，增大了公共服务和住房的压力。随着西方的不平等程度持续上升，民粹主义政治人士也就可以很方便地宣称，坐豪车的自由派人士从廉价的移民劳动力中获益——同时还能不引起社会后果。

So far, so similar. But the US and European approaches are diverging. Mr Obama has taken on the anti-immigration lobby, casting them as un-American and inhumane. In Britain and the rest of Europe, however, many governments are still promising to “crack down” on immigration, in some form or another – even if political leaders such as Mr Cameron refrain from challenging the EU’s commitment to free movement of labour.

到这里，美国和欧洲的情况还很相似。但美欧的策略正在出现差异。奥巴马与反移民游说团体展开了较量，称他们是反美国精神和不人道的。而在英国和欧洲其他地方，许多政府还许诺以某种形式“打击”移民，尽管卡梅伦等政治领袖仍避免挑战欧盟关于劳动力自由流动的承诺。

The difference partly reflects the fact that Mr Obama is a centre-left politician and Mr Cameron is a conservative. The US Democrats also see an electoral advantage in luring the Republicans into taking a hard line on immigration, which will alienate Hispanic voters.

这种差异部分源于奥巴马是中左翼的政治人士，而卡梅伦是保守主义者。美国民主党人也发现，诱使共和党人在移民问题上采取强硬态度，会让他们疏远西班牙裔选民，在选举上对民主党有利。

In Europe the political calculations point in the opposite direction. Mr Cameron fears losing support to Ukip, which has made opposition to mass immigration its central theme. Other centre-right politicians in the EU, such as Mr Sarkozy, also seem most concerned about the threat from the far right.

在欧洲，政治考量则指向了相反的方向。卡梅伦担心选民会转而支持以反对大量移民为中心议题的英国独立党。欧盟其他中右翼的政治人士，如萨科齐，似乎也极担忧来自极右翼政治势力的威胁。

Behind the politics, however, there is also an emerging difference in philosophy. Mr Cameron, Mr Sarkozy and politicians to their right still stress the language of “control”. Their argument is that voters are unhappy about high levels of immigration and that it is their duty to respond.

然而，在政治的背后，美欧之间的理念差异也开始浮现。卡梅伦、萨科齐和比他们更偏右的政治人士依然强调“控制”这种措辞。他们的论点是，既然选民对大量移民不满，他们就有责任做出回应。

Mr Obama, though, is taking an approach that sounds more fatalistic. He says he will strengthen border controls but adds that “tracking down, rounding up and deporting millions of people isn’t realistic”.

奥巴马采取的策略听起来更顺其自然一些。他表示将加强边境管控，但他也说“追查、围堵和驱逐数百万人是不现实的。”

Implicit in the Obama argument is the idea that, in the era of globalisation, rich nations are just going to have to get used to the notion that they will continue to be a magnet for migrants from poorer parts of the world. The alternative is to start turning your country into a fortress or a police state.

奥巴马的论点中隐含的意思是，在全球化时代，对来自世界更贫穷地方的移民来说，富国将继续保持磁石一般的吸引力，而富国只能去适应这一点。否则就会把国家变成一个堡垒或者极权国家。

There are several reasons why the Obama argument might work in the US. As the president pointed out, America was built by immigrants. It is also a continent-sized country that has plenty of space. And it has an established two-party system that makes it harder for single-issue, anti-immigration parties to gain ground.

奥巴马的论点可能在美国行得通有几点原因。正如他指出的，美国是移民建立起来的国家，幅员辽阔，地方很大。而且，两党制在美国建立已久，这使单一议题的反移民政党更难在美国取得进展。

But none of those conditions prevail on the other side of the Atlantic. As a result, the populist right is likely to make the running in Europe’s immigration debate for some years to come.

而大西洋彼岸的国家都不具备这些条件。因此，在接下来的许多年里，民粹主义右翼势力可能还将主导欧洲的移民辩论。