是谁为泛太平洋贸易制定规则

WASHINGTON — While the United States and Japan dawdle over the last details of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, China is moving to fill the vacuum. Beijing is intent on defining trade relations in the Asia Pacific for the 21st century.

华盛顿——美国和日本就跨太平洋伙伴关系（Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP）最后的细节久拖不决之时，中国正积极地填补空白。北京已经下定决心，要为21世纪的亚太地区设定贸易关系框架。

As host of the approaching Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings, which take place just a week after America’s midterm elections, Beijing has been pushing for a post-meetings declaration that will lock in its vision of free trade — language that will, according to reports, endorse the so-called Beijing road map, which does not include the T.P.P. As the United States trade representative, Michael Froman, said, “We do not expect to have a final agreement on T.P.P. at APEC.”

亚太经济合作组织(Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation)峰会的召开，就在美国中期选举之后一周。作为APEC会议的东道主，北京已经在推动一份会后的宣言了。这份宣言会确定其自由贸易愿景，据报道，措辞会支持所谓的北京合作蓝图，其中并不包括TPP。就像美国贸易代表迈克尔·费罗曼(Michael Froman)所说的，“我们并不期待在APEC会议期间，就TPP达成最后协议。”

The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement would bring broad economic benefits for a vast majority of citizens in the 12 countries that would be signatories to the deal — including Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Mexico and Vietnam, among others. The T.P.P. would set high standards for regulatory systems, rules on intellectual property and fair competition — standards that China should aspire to but cannot currently meet.

TPP协议将会为12个缔约国的绝大多数民众，带来广泛的经济利益，包括澳大利亚、新加坡、马来西亚、墨西哥和越南等国。TPP也会为监管体系、知识产权规则和公平竞争，设置很高的标准，都是中国应该努力追求、但目前达不到的标准。

So as well as promoting its alternative plan to shape the region’s economic future by means of an Asia-Pacific free trade area with considerably lower standards, Beijing is betting that the small number of vocal opponents of the T.P.P. in America and Japan will derail the agreement. For the T.P.P. parties, failure to conclude an agreement would have untold costs, as countries like China that pursue mercantilist, government-directed economic policies would be emboldened to set the terms of trade in the Asia-Pacific region.

所以，除了推动自己的方案，以标准明显更低的亚太自贸区，塑造该地区的经济未来之外，北京还期望美国和日本国内一小部分尖锐反对TPP的人，能够破坏相关协议。对TPP的参与方来说，无法签订协议会造成难以估量的后果，因为中国这种追求重商主义，由政府主导经济政策的国家，会受到鼓励，来为亚太地区设置贸易规则。

China understands that democratic systems like those of the United States and Japan show great deference to the interests of small groups. They protect minorities from the tyranny of a majority. In effective democracies, however, the interests of small groups are protected not through stalemate and inaction, but through compromise, as new policies move forward for the overall benefit of a country.

中国明白，美国和日本这样的民主政体，会对小群体的利益给予极大的尊重。它们保护少数群体免受多数人暴政的侵害。然而在有效的民主体制里，保护小群体的手段并不是僵持不下的不作为，而是要通过妥协，为了国家的整体利益推动新政策。

Trade negotiations test democracies to their limits. In the final phases, weary negotiators attempt to find common ground. Small interest groups that fear being disadvantaged become more shrill and intransigent; larger business and industry stakeholders that would gain by the deal fall largely silent; and the public, which would gain most of all, is confused. Media coverage is saturated with ever more strident rhetoric over ever narrower issues, overshadowing the fundamental interests at stake.

贸易谈判对民主体制的极限提出了考验。在最后阶段，疲惫的谈判代表试图各让一步达成共识，然而担心利益受损的小利益集团却会发出更为尖锐的声音、更加顽固；将从协议中受益的规模较大的工商界利益相关方，基本上会保持沉默；绝大多数民众会从协议中受益，但他们已经被搞糊涂了。媒体报道则充满越来越强硬的言论，针对的议题却越来越狭窄，遮盖了其中涉及的根本利益。

This is the stage we have reached in the American-Japanese negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Public debate has become dominated by, on one hand, the profits of pork farmers in Japan and the United States and, on the other, political maneuvering to assign blame in anticipation of a failure to close a deal.

美国与日本就TPP举行的谈判就来到了这个阶段。公共辩论的主导议题，一方面是日本和美国养猪业者的利润，另一方面是来自政界不断的动作，以确定在无法达成协议时该指责谁。

Lost in the discussion are the advantages to both countries’ overall national interest and an overwhelming majority of their respective citizens. Few voices are heard saying that a T.P.P. agreement will establish American-Japanese leadership in setting a course that will enable greater prosperity throughout the Asia Pacific region.

公众讨论中所欠缺的，是它对两国的整体国家利益，以及各自国家的绝大多数民众有哪些好处。我们极少听到有人说，TPP协议能够让美国和日本取得领导权，规划出一条路线，从而促进整个亚太地区实现更大的繁荣。

It is time to make the compromises necessary to close a deal that will set the standard for international business in the future. Critically, a small number of relatively minor issues must not block an agreement between two of the world’s three largest economies.

现在应当做出必要的让步，达成协议，从而为未来的国际商业活动树立标准。至关重要的一点是，世界前三大经济体中的两个国家之间的一项协议，不应当因为少量相对轻微的问题而受到阻挠。

The T.P.P. will provide an American- and Japanese-led framework for business in the world’s center of economic power. It will establish the best practices already observed by American and Japanese companies for a trading area of nearly 800 million consumers in 12 countries. And it will be open to new members, including China, that are willing to accept the high standards that the T.P.P. will demand.

TPP能够在世界经济的核心地区，建立起一个由美国和日本领导的国际商业框架。它将为一个包含12个国家、拥有近8亿人口的贸易区，建立起美国和日本企业已经在遵循的最佳行为准则。它也欢迎新成员的加入，包括中国，只要它们愿意接受TPP提出的高标准。

It’s important to note that China has expressed interest in joining the T.P.P. — even if this reflects a view in Beijing that the agreement is more inevitable than desirable. While China’s accession to the T.P.P. would place the world’s second-largest economy on a more certain and stable path, it would do so based on rules developed under the leadership of free-market democracies. Many of the areas in which weak World Trade Organization rules have failed to level the playing field for foreign companies in China would be strengthened under the T.P.P., making China a better place to do business.

需要注意，中国已经表达了加入TPP的兴趣，不过这只是反映出，中国更多是认为该协议无法避免，却未必乐于加入该协议。中国加入TPP，会让这个世界第二大经济体，走上更加确定和稳定的道路，而且中国在这样做时所遵循的规则，也是在信奉自由市场的民主国家领导下制定的。在许多领域，世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)软弱的规则，并没有让外国企业在中国享有平等的竞争环境，但在TPP之下，这些规则会得到加强，使中国成为一个更适宜开展商业活动的国家。

China understands that the T.P.P. will reinforce the vital American-Japanese alliance. That alliance is, of course, the bedrock of the region’s security upon which the Asian economic miracle was built. As Japan assumes a more important international role, the T.P.P. provides additional strategic ties that will enhance Tokyo’s ability to manage relations with the countries that pose the greatest challenges.

中国理解TPP会增强美日之间至关重要的联盟。而美日联盟当然也是亚太地区安全的基石，正是在这种安全的环境之上，才构筑起了亚洲的经济奇迹。随着日本承担起更重要的国际角色，TPP也会提供更强的战略联系，从而为日本赋予更强的能力，来管理与那些构成最大挑战的国家之间的关系。

A failure to conclude the T.P.P. would be a terrible setback. In place of establishing joint leadership in a rules-based regional economic system based on free-market principles, the American-Japan relationship would suffer from a period of mutual recriminations and loss of trust and cooperation. As both President Obama and Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, have stressed, the time for bold action to conclude the T.P.P. is at hand. China’s bet against Japan and the United States has only reinforced the urgency of closing the deal.

如果不能签订TPP，将会是一个糟糕的挫折。无法基于自由市场原则，在一个遵守规则的地区经济体系里，建立共同的领导地位，美日两国就会在一段时间里相互指责，失去信任并减少双边合作，进而对双边关系造成冲击。就像奥巴马总统和日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)强调的，果断采取行动，签订TPP协议的机遇就在眼前。中国认定日本和美国无法达成共识，更让这份协议的签订显得颇具紧迫感。