"占中"不止阻塞交通 还拖累香港经济

Signs are growing that Hong Kong’s pro-democracy street protests, now well into their second month, are beginning to prove a drag on the local economy.

越来越多的迹象表明，已持续1个月零9天的香港民主抗议活动，已开始拖累当地经济。

Hong Kong’s purchasing managers' index – a survey of business conditions released by HSBC – showed that private sector activity last month dropped at its fastest pace in three years. The October reading of 47.7 compares with 49.8 the month before. A figure below 50 indicates contraction.

香港的采购经理人指数(PMI)显示，上月私人部门活动创下3年来最大跌幅。该指数由汇丰(HSBC)发布，是针对营商环境的调查结果。10月的PMI为47.7，与前一月的49.8差异显著。PMI指数低于50表示经济在收缩。

A student-led civil disobedience movement has closed a number of main highways in three key business districts of Hong Kong since late September. Protesters, who at one point numbered more than 100,000, have been calling on Hong Kong’s government to alter its plans for electoral reform, due to be introduced in 2017.

自9月底以来，一场由学生领导的公民抗命运动封锁了香港三大商业区的多条主要公路。抗议者一度超过10万人，他们呼吁香港政府修改将于2017年实施的选举改革方案。

So far little progress has been made in finding a solution to the problem through dialogue, while the government has chosen not to deploy force to clear the protesters from their camps.

迄今为止，各方通过对话寻找解决方案的努力进展不大，而政府已决定不动用武力清场。

The PMI reading is the first piece of reliable economic data for the month of October, giving an early indication of the impact of the protests. Official retail sales, which many analysts expect to have suffered from the unrest, are not due to be released until the end of this month.

最新PMI读数是关于10月经济表现的第一个可靠数据，初步反映了抗议活动的影响。官方零售销售额数据预定在本月末发布，许多分析师预测，动荡的局势肯定拉低了销售额。

However, Hong Kong’s retail management association has said that some of its members reported dramatic falls in sales in the first few days of October, a national holiday period when millions of tourists arrive every year from China.

香港零售管理协会(retail management association)表示，一些会员企业报告，10月头几天、也就是国庆假期期间的销售额出现了明显下滑。每年国庆假期都有数百万游客从内地前往香港。

Sa Sa International, a Hong Kong-listed cosmetics retailer popular with visitors, reported a 3 per cent drop in sales during the holiday period, which it said was “mainly attributable to a decrease in traffic as a result of the recent demonstrations”.

香港上市公司、备受游客青睐的化妆品零售商莎莎国际(Sa Sa International)报告，国庆假期的销售额同比下跌3%，“主要是因为最近的抗议导致客流量下降”。

In its earnings statement this week, German luxury clothing brand Hugo Boss said that the civil unrest in Hong Kong had taken a toll on its global sales, while Estée Lauder mentioned the territory’s “soft retail environment” as it lowered guidance on Tuesday.

德国奢侈服装品牌雨果博斯(Hugo Boss)本周发布财报，称香港的公民抗议活动冲击了其全球销售额，而雅诗兰黛(Estée Lauder)周二调低盈利预期时，则提到香港“低迷的零售业环境”。

The Hong Kong economy is already under pressure as growth over the border in mainland China continues to slow. Retail sales have been falling for most of this year, in part a reflection of an anti-corruption drive that has dented demand for watches, jewellery and other luxury goods.

随着中国内地经济增长继续放缓，香港经济本来就处于压力之下。今年香港的零售业销售额大部分时间在下滑，部分也因为内地的反腐败运动降低了手表、珠宝等奢侈品需求。

However, a number of economists have downgraded their growth forecasts for Hong Kong as a direct result of the disruption to the retail and tourism sectors caused by the political impasse.

一些经济学家已下调他们对香港的增长预测，这是政治僵局对零售业和旅游业造成破坏的直接后果。

“We think both tourist and local consumption will fall in October – and likely November too, depending on when street blockages can be cleared – due to protests having reduced human traffic at shops”, Citigroup economist Adrienne Lui wrote recently in a report.

花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家雷智颜(Adrienne Lui)在近期一份报告中写道：“我们认为10月份的游客消费和本地消费都会下滑，因为抗议活动减少了商店的人流量。11月可能也一样，这取决于街道障碍物何时能被清除。”

The protests have also been linked to the delay of a much-anticipated stock exchange tie-up between Hong Kong and Shanghai. The so-called stock connect will offer investors both inside China and across the world a new avenue for cross-border equities trading of Shanghai and Hong Kong shares.

抗议活动还被认为与备受期待的“沪港通”——上海证交所与香港证交所之间的互联互通机制——的推迟有关。这一机制将为中国内地及世界各地的投资者提供一个跨境买卖香港、上海股票的新途径。

The scheme was expected to launch in late October but has still not been given the green light from Beijing. On Tuesday CY Leung, Hong Kong’s chief executive, directly linked the demonstrations to the project’s apparent delay.

此前人们预计“沪港通”在10月底推出，但北京方面到现在仍未开绿灯。周二，香港特首梁振英(CY Leung)直接将抗议活动与“沪港通”的延迟联系到一起。