日本七分之一住房空置成"鬼屋"
Yoko Irie sweeps autumn leaves from the pavement outside the house that neither she nor anyone else has lived in for the past four years.
Other homeowners are less considerate – or even dead – hence the blight cast on Japan’s landscape by more than 8m akiya, or empty homes. Some houses are derelict, some marooned in overgrown grassy plots. Others – such as 61-year-old Ms Irie’s – are in fine condition, complete with underfloor heating and tatami room.
Japan’s zombie houses, which account for roughly one in seven homes, reflect a dwindling populace and what one analyst calls a “scrap and build” mentality. The population peaked in 2008 and with a fertility rate of 1.4 children per woman and minimal immigration, a reversal is not on the cards.
“For 10 empty houses there are 10 different reasons,” shrugs Shimada Shigeo, who as head of Akiya Bank has the task of reducing the ranks of 500 or so such houses in Isumi City, a small suburb of Chiba prefecture an hour by train from Tokyo.
相比之下，其他的屋主就没有这么考虑周到了——他们甚至可能已不在人世。目前，日本大地上散布着逾800万户无人居住的空置房屋。部分房屋已被弃置，部分由于荒废而长满杂草。也有部分房屋则像61岁的Irie女士的房子一样，处于精心打理之下，配备着地暖和榻榻米房间。
在日本，大约七分之一的房屋是空无一人的“鬼屋”。这一方面反映了人口的减少，另一方面则反映了被一位分析师称为是一种“房子坏了就盖新的”心理。2008年，日本人口达到顶峰，并在此后一路下滑。由于日本的生育率是平均每位妇女只生养1.4名子女，移民所占比例也极低，这种人口减少的态势不太可能出现逆转。
In the 1980s Japanese houses were typically built from wood and designed to last about 30 years. After 2000 that lifespan more than doubled to roughly 70 years, according to Wataru Sakakibara of the real estate division at Nomura Research Institute – still a blink of the eye by European standards.
根据野村综合研究所(Nomura Research Institute)房地产部门Wataru Sakakibara的说法，上世纪80年代，典型的日本房屋都是木质结构，设计寿命大约是30年。2000年以后，日本房屋的设计寿命增加了不止一倍，达到大约70年。不过，相对欧洲标准来说，这也只是一眨眼的功夫。
“Given the many earthquakes, Japanese people didn’t contemplate making houses last any longer,” he says. “Instead, there was a notion to scrap and build.”
While other parts of the world focus on building more homes for expanding populations, Japan is faced with filling – or demolishing – its existing stock. Without any action, the government estimates 20 per cent of residential areas will become ghost towns by 2050, while Nomura reckons one in five homes will be empty by 2023.
Avoiding these scenarios would require overcoming structural obstacles, says Mr Sakakibara. It is expensive to bring in the wrecking ball – estimates vary from Y500,000-Y1m ($4,670-$9,340) – and doing so raises the owners’ tax bill on the land sixfold.
Under a policy devised at a time of population growth, fixed asset tax bills on land were reduced if owners built homes. Attempts to reverse this appear, so far, to have been unsuccessful.
That partly explains the unusual economics of housing in Japan, a country that once boasted the world’s most expensive real estate but where prices have more or less been in retreat since the 1992 peak. Houses themselves are a rapidly depreciating asset; Mr Sakakibara calculates that after 20 years the value resides only in the land.
Thus just 13.5 per cent of purchases were in the secondary market in 2008, the latest year for which government data are available. That compares with 90 per cent in the US in 2009 and 84 per cent in the UK in 2010.
Meanwhile, new houses and apartments continue to be built.
他说：“考虑到多发的地震，日本人并不打算把房子的年限做得太长。相反，人们有一种‘房子坏了就盖新的’心理。”
全球其他国家主要把精力放在建造更多房屋容纳更多人口上，而日本面临的却是如何填满（或拆除）现存房屋的问题。日本政府估计，如果不采取任何措施，到2050年，20%的居民区将成为鬼城。而根据野村证券(Nomura)的估计，到2023年五分之一的房屋将会空置。
Sakakibara表示，要避免这个问题，日本必须克服诸多体制性障碍。对于房主来说，拆掉旧房成本高昂——估计花费在50万日元到100万日元之间（合4670美元到9340美元）。此外，这么做还会让屋主的土地税猛涨五倍。
根据一项在日本人口增长时期制定的政策，如果屋主建造房屋，按土地征收的固定资产税将会降低。到目前为止，曾有人多次试图逆转这一政策，都没有取得成功。
这部分解释了日本房地产经济的反常。日本曾以全球最昂贵的房地产价格而自豪。然而自1992年的峰值过后，日本房价进入了或快或慢地下跌状态。住房本身已成为一种迅速贬值的资产：据Sakakibara计算，只要20年，物业的价值就跌得只剩土地价值了。
因此，以日本政府公开数据的最近一年来看，2008年日本购房交易中只有13.5%的交易出自二手市场。相比之下，2009年美国这一比例是90%，2010年英国这一比例是84%。二手房占比偏低的同时，新的住房和公寓不断还在不断被修建。
Other homeowners are less considerate – or even dead – hence the blight cast on Japan’s landscape by more than 8m akiya, or empty homes. Some houses are derelict, some marooned in overgrown grassy plots. Others – such as 61-year-old Ms Irie’s – are in fine condition, complete with underfloor heating and tatami room.
Japan’s zombie houses, which account for roughly one in seven homes, reflect a dwindling populace and what one analyst calls a “scrap and build” mentality. The population peaked in 2008 and with a fertility rate of 1.4 children per woman and minimal immigration, a reversal is not on the cards.
“For 10 empty houses there are 10 different reasons,” shrugs Shimada Shigeo, who as head of Akiya Bank has the task of reducing the ranks of 500 or so such houses in Isumi City, a small suburb of Chiba prefecture an hour by train from Tokyo.
相比之下，其他的屋主就没有这么考虑周到了——他们甚至可能已不在人世。目前，日本大地上散布着逾800万户无人居住的空置房屋。部分房屋已被弃置，部分由于荒废而长满杂草。也有部分房屋则像61岁的Irie女士的房子一样，处于精心打理之下，配备着地暖和榻榻米房间。
在日本，大约七分之一的房屋是空无一人的“鬼屋”。这一方面反映了人口的减少，另一方面则反映了被一位分析师称为是一种“房子坏了就盖新的”心理。2008年，日本人口达到顶峰，并在此后一路下滑。由于日本的生育率是平均每位妇女只生养1.4名子女，移民所占比例也极低，这种人口减少的态势不太可能出现逆转。
In the 1980s Japanese houses were typically built from wood and designed to last about 30 years. After 2000 that lifespan more than doubled to roughly 70 years, according to Wataru Sakakibara of the real estate division at Nomura Research Institute – still a blink of the eye by European standards.
根据野村综合研究所(Nomura Research Institute)房地产部门Wataru Sakakibara的说法，上世纪80年代，典型的日本房屋都是木质结构，设计寿命大约是30年。2000年以后，日本房屋的设计寿命增加了不止一倍，达到大约70年。不过，相对欧洲标准来说，这也只是一眨眼的功夫。
“Given the many earthquakes, Japanese people didn’t contemplate making houses last any longer,” he says. “Instead, there was a notion to scrap and build.”
While other parts of the world focus on building more homes for expanding populations, Japan is faced with filling – or demolishing – its existing stock. Without any action, the government estimates 20 per cent of residential areas will become ghost towns by 2050, while Nomura reckons one in five homes will be empty by 2023.
Avoiding these scenarios would require overcoming structural obstacles, says Mr Sakakibara. It is expensive to bring in the wrecking ball – estimates vary from Y500,000-Y1m ($4,670-$9,340) – and doing so raises the owners’ tax bill on the land sixfold.
Under a policy devised at a time of population growth, fixed asset tax bills on land were reduced if owners built homes. Attempts to reverse this appear, so far, to have been unsuccessful.
That partly explains the unusual economics of housing in Japan, a country that once boasted the world’s most expensive real estate but where prices have more or less been in retreat since the 1992 peak. Houses themselves are a rapidly depreciating asset; Mr Sakakibara calculates that after 20 years the value resides only in the land.
Thus just 13.5 per cent of purchases were in the secondary market in 2008, the latest year for which government data are available. That compares with 90 per cent in the US in 2009 and 84 per cent in the UK in 2010.
Meanwhile, new houses and apartments continue to be built.
他说：“考虑到多发的地震，日本人并不打算把房子的年限做得太长。相反，人们有一种‘房子坏了就盖新的’心理。”
全球其他国家主要把精力放在建造更多房屋容纳更多人口上，而日本面临的却是如何填满（或拆除）现存房屋的问题。日本政府估计，如果不采取任何措施，到2050年，20%的居民区将成为鬼城。而根据野村证券(Nomura)的估计，到2023年五分之一的房屋将会空置。
Sakakibara表示，要避免这个问题，日本必须克服诸多体制性障碍。对于房主来说，拆掉旧房成本高昂——估计花费在50万日元到100万日元之间（合4670美元到9340美元）。此外，这么做还会让屋主的土地税猛涨五倍。
根据一项在日本人口增长时期制定的政策，如果屋主建造房屋，按土地征收的固定资产税将会降低。到目前为止，曾有人多次试图逆转这一政策，都没有取得成功。
这部分解释了日本房地产经济的反常。日本曾以全球最昂贵的房地产价格而自豪。然而自1992年的峰值过后，日本房价进入了或快或慢地下跌状态。住房本身已成为一种迅速贬值的资产：据Sakakibara计算，只要20年，物业的价值就跌得只剩土地价值了。
因此，以日本政府公开数据的最近一年来看，2008年日本购房交易中只有13.5%的交易出自二手市场。相比之下，2009年美国这一比例是90%，2010年英国这一比例是84%。二手房占比偏低的同时，新的住房和公寓不断还在不断被修建。
