汽车市场的天平正倾向高端品牌

When you talked cars not long ago, chances are you talked about the mass market brands: Mustang vs. Camaro, minivan or SUV, Toyota quality and Nissan design. Luxury models were an afterthought, a tiny slice of the market designed for the wealthy that was focused on more rather than better: more wood, more leather, more chrome, more status.

在不久前，当人们谈论汽车的时候，多数讨论的可能是一些大众化的市场品牌，比如福特野马（Mustang）和通用科迈罗（Camaro）哪个好，买多功能休旅车还是买SUV，丰田（Toyota）的品质和日产（Nissan）的设计谁更胜一筹等等。豪华车一般不是讨论的主流。而且这个专为富裕阶层设计的细分市场往往更关注的是“多”而不是“好”：更多木料，更多皮革，更多镀铬，更显身价。

Now the balance is shifting. Mass manufacturers are struggling with skinny margins, shifting loyalties, and global competitors while the makers of high-end cars seem to coast above the fray. They are accumulating record sales and building waiting lists of eager customers. More models bearing luxury brands are coming to market than ever before—and at more accessible price points. BMW alone will bring out five new or redesigned models for 2015, including its first two electrified cars. When the directors of the North American Car of the Year compiled their list of potential candidates for this year’s award, fully half were from luxury manufacturers. (For the purpose of this column, luxury brands include Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Porsche, Lexus, Infiniti, Jaguar, Land Rover, Cadillac, Lincoln, Volvo, Acura, and Tesla).

如今这个天平正在发生倾斜。大众化汽车厂商正努力解决利润变薄、品牌忠诚度转移和全球竞争加剧等问题，而高端品牌显示出了后来居上的势头。不少高端品牌都创造了创纪录的销量，而且还有很多顾客排队等着提车。豪车品牌推陈出新的力度也超过了以往，而且价格也越来越亲民。光是宝马公司（BMW）2015年就将推出5款新车或换代车型，其中包括两款首次推出的电动车型。今年的“北美年度风云车”（North American Car of the Year）大奖侯选名单中，有一半车型都来自豪华品牌。[本文中的豪华品牌包括梅塞德斯-奔驰（Mercedes）、宝马（BMW）、奥迪（Audi）、保时捷（Porsche）、雷克萨斯（Lexus）、英菲尼迪（Infiniti）、捷豹（Jaguar）、路虎（Land Rover）、凯迪拉克（Cadillac）、林肯（Lincoln）、沃尔沃（Volvo）、讴歌（Acura）和特斯拉（Tesla）。]

To date, the big winners have been two German makers and one Japanese. While car sales inched up a mere 1% in July, luxury car sales jumped 6%, led by Lexus, Mercedes, and BMW. This year, high-end brands have accounted for 16% of all sales growth this year, though they represent just 10.8% of the overall market., according to Automotive News. Luxury car sales should top 1.8 million cars and trucks this year and may exceed the all-time high of 1.83 million set in 2007.

到目前为止，豪车市场的大赢家是两大德国厂商和一家日本厂商。虽然今年七月美国汽车销量总体只上涨了1%，但豪华车销量在以雷克萨斯、奔驰、宝马等为代表的高端品牌的推动下却跃升了6%。据《汽车新闻》（Automotive News）报道，虽然高端品牌只占到美国汽车市场总份额的10.8%，但今年高端品牌却贡献了汽车市场销量增幅的16%。2014年全年的豪车销量预计将达到180万台，甚至有可能超过2007年183万台的历史纪录。

Some of the surge is coming effortlessly from the easy-money, low-interest-rate economy and pig-in-the-python demographics of the aging population. “Luxury brands offer great financing deals, and very attractive lease rates,” says independent analyst Warren Browne. “In addition, the age of the baby boomers supports the ‘I deserve this now that I have made some money’ purchase rationale, and I expect this demographic effect will continue for the next ten years.

高端品牌的销量激增，与美国宽松的货币政策和低利率的经济大环境有关，也与“婴儿潮”一代进入老龄化有关。独立分析师沃伦o布朗尼指出：“高端品牌会给出很划算的金融方案和非常有吸引力的租用费。另外，随着‘婴儿潮’一代人步入老年，也使他们产生了‘我既然赚了钱，就应该好好享受’的购车心态。我认为这种人口红利的影响还会持续10年。”

But a bigger push is coming from the manufacturers themselves. They are refreshing their product lines faster than any time in memory and extending their brands in ways that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. Few are holding back. Jaguar, a maker of sports cars and sport sedans, is working on a compact crossover, while Bentley is developing an SUV. They are following in the well-established tire tracks of Porsche. The sports car maker has doubled its sales with the Cayenne sport utility and Panamera four-door. At the same time, upscale manufacturers are pioneering new technologies that put substance behind their outsize price premiums. Mercedes is a leader in assisted driving while BMW pioneers carbon fiber research and Jaguar Land Rover perfects techniques in aluminum body structures.

更大的推动力则来自汽车厂商本身。他们正在以史无前例的速度更新产品线，并且以10年前根本无法想象的方式扩展他们的品牌。比如跑车品牌捷豹正在研发一款紧凑跨界车型，而宾利（Bentley）正在研发一款SUV。这两家品牌都在复制保时捷的发展轨迹。保时捷的卡宴（Cayenne）SUV和四门版帕纳梅拉（Panamera）的销量已经翻了一番。与此同时，各大高端厂商也不遗余力地开发创新技术，以便让它的价格物有所值。比如奔驰已经成为辅助驾驶技术的领军者，而宝马则积极开展碳纤维研究，捷豹路虎则进一步完善了铝合金车身框架技术。

There are lots of risks associated with this new dynamic business model, and it’s early days. All manufacturers want a share of luxury sales, and giants like General Motors are continuing to upgrade their popular-priced offerings, forcing consumers to choose between a stripped Cadillac and a loaded Chevy Impala. Says analyst Jessica Caldwell: “As luxury brands move down-market with their product offerings, mainstream brands are increasing content and in-car amenities. As a result, there is a bit of squeeze happening. Right now, luxury brands have a lot of equity built up over the years but that doesn’t last forever especially as car shoppers look for value.”

这种新的商业模式也带来了不少风险，而且这才是刚开始。所有汽车厂商都想从豪车销售中分一杯羹，像通用汽车（General Motors）这样的行业巨头也在对旗下的平价车型进行持续升级，迫使消费者在减配版的凯迪拉克和高配版的雪佛兰英帕拉（Chevy Impala）之间做选择。汽车网站的分析师杰西卡o考德维尔表示：“随着豪华品牌携新产品进入平价市场，主流品牌也正在增加车内配置，提高舒适性，因此市场上出现了相互挤压的情况。现在豪华品牌虽然拥有多年积攒下的家当，但这种优势并不会永远持续下去，尤其是购车者最关心的还是车的价值。”

More worrisome for luxury manufacturers is the damage that could be done to long-established reputations as they move down the price ladder. History provides some lessons in how not to succeed. Those with long memories will recall GM’s efforts to turn a Chevrolet Cavalier into the Cadillac Cimarron in the 1980s or Mercedes’ half-hearted C230 Kompressor hatchback from the early aughts. Lexus boss Mark Templin warns that a $30,000 price may be the cut off. “You can’t build a Lexus with the quality, the durability, the reliability, the craftsmanship, the content that we put in a Lexus and sell it profitably under $30,000,” he tells Automotive News. “You just can’t do it.

对于豪车品牌来说，更值得担心的是随着他们的车型价格的下探，他们长期以来建立的声誉是否会受到影响。历史证明豪车贱卖也有失败的例子。记性好的人可能还记得上世纪80年代通用汽车曾试图把雪佛兰Cavalier改成一款叫做凯迪拉克西马伦（Cimarron）的车型；另外在本世纪头10年，奔驰也推出了一辆差强人意的C230机械增压掀背车。雷克萨斯的老板马克o汤普林警告道，30,000美元是高端品牌的红线。他对《汽车新闻》表示：“以雷克萨斯的质量、耐久性、可靠性、工艺品质和配置，不可能卖到3万美元以下还有利润。根本做不到。”

But where there is risk, there can be reward, and aggressive behavior has been paying off where it counts: higher sales and richer profits. Mercedes has been selling a front-wheel drive compact sedan, the CLA, for the better part of a year with a starting price of $29,900 and has moved 12,954 units in calendar 2014. The CLA I drove had a surprisingly sophisticated design and a smartly fitted interior. Likewise, Audi has managed to reinterpret its best features in the A3, which carries a MSRP of $30,975, without sacrificing too many of the brand’s traditional qualities.

然而有风险就有回报。大胆的尝试也给高端品牌带来了高销量和高利润。比如奔驰的前驱紧凑型轿车CLA的起价只有29,900美元，但从年初到现在，它的销量已经达到12,954台。我试驾过的那辆CLA具有非常复杂的设计，内饰的感觉也很相称。奥迪则将它的精华功能重新布局在A3里，它的建议零售价也只有30,975美元，但并没有牺牲多少该品牌一贯的质量。

Lower-price cars make it difficult to achieve the lush profits upscale makers are used to. BMW has margin targets of 8-10%, but that will be under pressure as the proportion of smaller, lower-margin cars like the 1- and 2-series rises to more than 40 percent of the group’s overall vehicle sales from 25-30 percent currently.

低价车型很难实现高端厂商以往那种丰厚的利润。宝马的利润目标是8%到10%，但对于宝马1系、2系等低利润车型来说，要实现这样的利润是有压力的。但目前，1系、2系的销量已经从宝马公司全系车型销量的25%到30%上升到了现在的40%。

Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche is pushing for Mercedes to become the most profitable luxury-auto producer with a 10% margin goal, but he will have a hard time doing so by selling $30,000 CLA’s. A decade ago, Mercedes Benz transaction prices were 93% higher than the industry average. In 2013, that number went down to 75%, according to .

戴姆勒（Daimler）CEO迪特尔o柴奇希望推动梅塞德斯-奔驰成为业内利润率最高的豪车品牌，也就是达到10%的利润目标。但是光靠销售3万美元的CLA恐怕是很难实现这个目标的。据汽车网站指出，10年前，梅塞德斯-奔驰的交易价格要比行业平均水平高出93%。到了2013年，这个数字已经下降到75%。

Not every manufacturer is sharing in the swelling of the luxury brand market. Honda’s traditionally under-performing Acura seems to be in perpetual transition. Originally designed as a step-up brand, it has never been able to market its interpretation of frugal luxury. Nissan’s Infiniti, meanwhile, still lacks a strong identity and established reputation. It suffered a big loss earlier this year when its highly regarded leader Johan de Nysschen, who had been recruited from Audi, defected to equally-needy Cadillac.

也不是每个高端品牌都参与了大扩张。本田（Honda）旗下一向表现平平的高端品牌讴歌似乎永远都在转型。虽然一开始也被设计成高端品牌，但是讴歌这种“低调的奢华”一直没有什么市场。日产的英菲尼迪也仍然缺乏强烈的认同和声誉。今年年初，英菲尼迪又遭受了一次重大损失——被外界寄予厚望的领导人约翰o德o尼琛跳槽到了凯迪拉克。

De Nysschen’s first task will be propping up sales of the compact ATS and fullsize XTS, both of which have been disappointing, and the electric ELR, whose sales have been invisible. After he has been in Detroit for awhile, he may wish he is back in Germany, where he would be closer to heart of the luxury car business.

尼琛在凯迪拉克的第一个任务，就是如何提高紧凑车ATS和全尺寸轿车XTS的销量，因为这两款车的表现都比较令人失望，电动车型ELR的销量几乎更是可以忽略不计。等他在底特律待了一阵之后，他说不定会希望能回到德国，毕竟在那里，他会更接近豪车业务的中心。