车市风云 印度尼西亚的汽车市场

IT IS South-East Asia's fastest-growing vehicle market, but investors, analysts and especially carmakers were awaiting Indonesia's July sales figures with trepidation. Spooked by fears of a credit bubble in a booming economy, on June 15th the government had introduced a rule requiring buyers to fork out a minimum down-payment of 30% when borrowing from banks to buy new cars. Loans account for 70% of all new-car purchases, and it was hoped that this would dampen demand.

印尼是东南亚地区成长最迅速的汽车市场，但投资者、分析师尤其是汽车生产厂商都在诚惶诚恐的等待印尼市场7月份的销售数据。对繁荣经济产生信贷泡沫的担忧使得政府如惊弓之鸟，于6月15日颁布一条规定，要求消费者在贷款购买新车时，支付最少30%的定金。贷款占到所有新车购买比重的70%，因此政府希望此举可以抑制购买需求。

In the end, however, spendthrift consumers defied the government. Relieved car bosses saw July's sales rise by 0.8% from June's figure, setting a monthly record of 102,512 cars. Indonesia could be back on track to breach the 1m barrier this year, compared with 900,000 in 2011. Motorcycle sales-8m last year-also continue to resist gravity, or at least the government. Bikers now have to make down-payments of 25%, yet sales for July still hit a new high of 579,077, up from 541,918 in June.

然而，结果是挥霍无度的消费者公然和政府作对。如释重负的汽车大亨们看到7月的销售额环比增涨0.8%，月销售记录为102512辆。与去年900000辆的销量相比，印尼今年可能回到正轨，打破1百万辆的销售瓶颈。摩托车的销量（去年销量为8百万辆）也继续一反常态，至少是不如政府所愿。自行车购买者现在不得不付25%的定金，但7月自行车的销售量比起6月541,918辆的业绩，还是创下579077辆的新高。

July's strong figures may yet prove anomalous. There is usually a bounce in consumer spending when Indonesia's Muslim majority celebrates the Ramadan fasting period: cars and motorbikes are in particular demand as people travel long distances to visit their families. The market could decelerate now Ramadan is over.

7月强劲的业绩可能表现的很反常。在印尼大多数穆斯林庆祝斋月禁食期间，消费者的开销通常会出现反弹：由于人们要长途跋涉拜访亲戚，汽车和摩托车炙手可热。现在斋月结束了，车市增速可能放缓。

Nevertheless, carmakers are still confident enough in Indonesia's potential to forge ahead with big expansion plans. At the moment the car market is dominated by the Japanese manufacturers, with a share of about 95%. Having stuck with Indonesia as other firms bailed out during one or other of the country's periodic meltdowns, the Japanese are being rewarded for their perseverance. Toyota (with its affiliate, Daihatsu) has about 51% of the market and Mitsubishi 15%, followed by Suzuki, Honda and Nissan. All are planning new production lines and new models.

无论如何，汽车生产商仍对在印尼市场继续推进宏大扩张计划的潜力满怀信心。现在日本汽车生产商主宰着汽车市场，市场份额约为95%。随着在印尼一次次周期性的经济崩溃中其他企业被淘汰，日本汽车制造商和印尼一同深陷泥潭，现在日本汽车制造商的坚持不懈得到了回馈。丰田及其附属公司大发市场份额为51%，东芝为15%，紧随其后的公司是铃木、本田和尼桑。这些公司均计划推出新生产线和新车型。

Others are now trying to muscle in. GM of America will shortly reopen a plant in West Java that it had closed in 2005. BMW of Germany is expanding production. India's Tata Motors is pondering whether to set up shop in Thailand-South-East Asia's established motor workshop-or Indonesia. Ford has less than 2% of the market, but is energetically marketing its high-end models at a growing middle class. Its local boss, Bagus Susanto, says these are “mostly young and techno-savvy, discerning consumers…who want cars that match with their gadgets and lifestyles.”

其他公司也在尝试分一杯羹。美国通用将短暂重新开启在西爪哇省2005年关闭的一个工厂。德国宝马正在扩大生产规模。印度的塔塔汽车公司正在考虑是否在泰国（东南亚最负盛名的汽车工厂）或是印尼建立自己的工厂。福特的市场份额不到2%，但正激情澎湃的将其高端车款向不断壮大的中产阶级营销。福特汽车的当地主管Bagus Susanto称“这些中产阶级大多是懂技术且眼光敏锐的青年消费者，他们想要和他们的小配件及生活方式相称的汽车”。

Underlying this optimism is a belief that Indonesia's economy will continue its dizzying ascent. It grew by 6.5% last year; although neighbouring economies may slow this year, Indonesia should come close to maintaining its growth rate. Despite record sales, only 4% of the population has a car, a relatively low figure (see chart). Given the country's 240m-strong population, the potential is obvious. The industry minister forecasts annual sales of 2m cars by the end of the decade, at which point Indonesia will have long since overtaken Thailand as the biggest market in South-East Asia, even if the Thais remain the region's biggest carmakers.

这样的乐观心态背后是人们相信印尼经济会继续飞速发展。去年印尼经济增长率上升6.5%，尽管周边国家的经济今年会放缓，但印尼基本上应会保持其增速。尽管创有销售记录，但有车的人口只占印尼总人口的4%，这一相对较低的水平（见表）。考虑到印尼有2亿4千万的广大人口，消费潜力显而易见。工业部长预测到2020年汽车年销售量达2百万辆，届时印尼将早已取代泰国成为东南亚地区最大的汽车市场，即使泰国仍是该地区最大的汽车制造国。

If Indonesia has growing numbers of people who can afford cars, what it needs now are some decent roads. Willianto le, an analyst at Nomura, a Japanese bank, says the country's lamentable record on public works may be set to improve. In August President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono finally signed into law the Land Acquisition Bill, which had spent years going through the country's tortuous legislative process. Its approval should make it easier for the government to compel landowners to sell up, allowing it to build much-needed highways across the main islands of Java and Sumatra, among other projects. If the bureaucrats get their act together-never guaranteed in Indonesia-the car market should keep revving up.

如果印尼有越来越多的人能买得起车，印尼现在所需的是一些像样的公路。日本野村银行的分析师Willianto le称印尼糟糕的公共工程状况将会得到改善。8月印尼总统苏西洛•班邦•尤多约诺最终签署了土地征用法案，这一耗费数年通过印尼冗长繁复的立法程序的法律。该法案的通过将使得政府能更容易的促使土地所有者卖掉土地，进而能够在其他项目中，修建贯通爪哇岛、苏门答腊岛间急需的高速公路。如果官员们能协同一致行动（在印尼从未实现），汽车市场会继续欣欣向荣。