中国股市大跌殃及亚洲市场
A shocking start to the year for China’s financial markets has resulted in the rest of Asia faring little better.
中国金融市场令人震惊的新年开局严重拖累了亚洲其他市场。
Worldwide interest in China’s markets and economy is shining a spotlight on the region’s other markets as investors and analysts test links with mainland assets that in some cases are new and developing.
全球对中国市场及经济的兴趣，使亚洲其他市场也暴露在聚光灯下。投资者和分析师在测试一些资产与中国资产的关联；在某些情况下，这些关联是新的、正在发展的。
Until recently, Asian markets tended to track closely the lead provided by Wall Street, even as local economies increased exposure to their vast neighbour. Now fears about China are weakening US stocks, and further weighing on Asia itself.
直到不久以前，亚洲各市场仍倾向于密切追随华尔街的引领，即便亚洲的经济体对邻近的庞大经济体增加了敞口。如今，有关中国的担心正在压低美国股价，进而进一步拖累亚洲当地的市场。
“We’re in an environment where the market here is sensitive to slowing growth and downwardly revised expectations,” says Timothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs.
“我们正处于这样的环境：这里的市场对于经济增长放缓和向下修正的预期十分敏感，”高盛(Goldman Sachs)亚太区首席股票策略师慕天辉(Timothy Moe)表示。
“Against that backdrop you’ve got fears about growth in China then being fanned by stocks falling and the renminbi depreciating.”
“在这个大背景下，你首先对中国经济增长产生忧虑，然后被股价下跌和人民币贬值搞得更加担忧。”
There was no respite yesterday. Falls in Shanghai and Shenzhen took their losses so far this year to 15 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively.
昨日没有出现让人喘口气的机会。上海和深圳股市延续跌势，使它们今年迄今的跌幅分别达到15%和20%。
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is now down 9.2 per cent this year, Japan’s Topix is off 6.5 per cent and Taiwan’s Taiex has fallen 6.6 per cent. For the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific, 2016 ranks as the poorest start since 2000.
香港恒生指数(Hang Seng index)今年以来下跌9.2%，日本的东证指数(Topix)下跌6.5%，台湾加权指数(Taiex)下跌6.6%。从覆盖面更广的MSCI明晟亚太指数(MSCI Asia-Pacific)看，2016年的新年开局是自2000年以来最糟糕的。
Manishi Raychaudhuri, Asia equity strategist at BNP Paribas, says: “We knew we were living in difficult times but we didn’t imagine the risks would come home to roost so early in the year, and so brutally.”
法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)亚洲股票策略师Manishi Raychaudhuri表示：“之前我们知道当下是困难时期，但我们想不到风险会在进入新的一年后这么快就爆发，而且这么无情。”
Regional currencies have also suffered, with the Korean won falling 3.1 per cent against the dollar and the Malaysian ringgit 2.1 per cent weaker.
亚洲各国的货币也受到打击，韩元兑美元汇率下跌3.1%，马来西亚林吉特下跌2.1%。
The losses across asset classes have left investors scrambling to understand better how China actually interacts with its neighbours.
不同资产类别纷纷出现亏损，促使投资者纷纷想要更好地理解中国与邻近的经济体之间存在怎样的相互作用。
“There was a view for a lot of last year that the worst was behind us and that a Fed hike wasn’t to be feared given the significant adjustment we’d already had,” says Jonathan Garner, chief Asia and emerging markets equity strategist for Morgan Stanley. “But people are not as underweight as was thought.”
“去年很长时间里曾有一种观点认为，我们已挺过最糟糕的时期，而且鉴于我们已经遭遇的重大调整，美联储(Fed)加息没什么可怕的，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亚洲和新兴市场首席股票策略师郭强盛(Jonathan Garner)表示。“但是，投资者（对亚洲股票）的持有比重没有原来想象的那么低。”
Hong Kong has so far been the epicentre of reaction. Just yesterday, the short-term cost of borrowing offshore renminbi spiked sharply higher — thought to be largely a side-effect of China’s suspected intervention in the offshore market in the past week.
香港迄今是反应的震中。就在昨日，借入离岸人民币的短期成本出现飙升——据信这主要是中国在过去一周疑似干预离岸市场的一个副作用。
Offshore renminbi rates have limited real economic impact; however, analysts are also exploring more direct connections between the mainland and its offshore hub.
离岸人民币利率对实体经济影响有限；不过，分析师们也在探讨内地与离岸中心之间的更直接联系。
The Morgan Stanley team, for example, calculates that every 1 per cent fall in the renminbi’s value against the dollar translates into a cut of a little more than 1 per cent in reported earnings for the Hong Kong China Enterprises index, the main measure of the Hong Kong shares of mainland companies.
比如，根据摩根士丹利团队的计算，人民币相对于美元的币值每下跌1%，就会转换成恒生中国企业指数（HSCEI，在港上市内地企业的主要股指）成份股报告的盈利减少逾1%。
With China’s markets still largely closed to outsiders, indices such as the HSCEI have become key proxies for China bets and feature in a range of products from futures to index-linked derivatives.
鉴于中国市场在很大程度上仍然不对外国人开放，恒生中国企业指数之类的指数已成为押注中国的主要工具，用于各种产品——从期货到指数挂钩的衍生品。
Mohammed Apabhai, head of Asia-Pacific trading strategies at Citigroup, cautions that there is also the potential for particular products to move markets. So-called “autocallables”, index-related bets that offer an attractive yield unless the underlying market falls to a specified level, have proved popular in markets such as Korea. Many of these are based on the HSCEI.
花旗集团(Citigroup)亚太区交易策略主管穆罕默德阿帕亥(Mohammed Apabhai)告诫称，某些产品也有可能影响市场行情。所谓的“自动赎回产品”(autocallables)——与指数关联的押注，提供有吸引力的收益率，除非标的市场跌至某个特定水平——迄今在韩国等市场被证明很受欢迎。此类产品中有很多基于恒生中国企业指数。
Mr Apabhai says: “You can imagine if the market is down 5 or 6 per cent in a day then suddenly there is some futures selling that emerges, that is going to have a pretty big impact.
阿帕亥表示：“你可以想象，如果市场在一天里下跌5%或6%，然后突然出现一些期货抛售，那将产生相当大的影响。
“If you woke up tomorrow and you saw the HSCEI down 12 per cent [and] if you didn’t know about these products what you’d automatically imagine is that this is it; this is the big China credit crisis that everybody’s been waiting for, when actually it may be nothing of the sort and it may just be a technical selling.”
“如果你明日早上醒来，看到恒生中国企业指数下跌12%，如果你不知道有这些产品存在，你会自动想到这就是了，这就是人人预期会爆发的中国信贷大危机，而实际上它可能根本不是那么回事，而只是技术性卖盘。”
