时事新闻:美国股市及原油价格跟随中国股市走低

【英文原文】

Stocks, OIL FOLLOW CHINA'S DROP

U.S. investors shied from risk on the final trading day of the month, unloading stocks and commodities following a big stock-market selloff in China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 47.92 points, or 0.5%, to 9496.28, marking a second straight decline. Alcoa, Caterpillar and Boeing fell more than 3%. United Technologies declined 0.5%. Walt Disney slid 3% after it said it would acquire Marvel Entertainment for about $4 billion. Marvel soared 25%.

Despite those losses, stocks finished August ahead of where they started. For the month, the Dow industrials gained 3.5%, the average's best performance for August since 2000.

The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 19.71 points, or 1%, to 2009.06. The S&P 500 sank 8.30 points, or 0.8%, to 1020.63. All its sectors fell, led by a decline of 1.9% in its energy sector.

The declines were sparked by an overnight drop in China's benchmark stock index, the Shanghai Composite, which fell 6.7% to 2667.75, its lowest finish since May. It has given back nearly a quarter of its value since it peaked Aug 4.

Typically, China's markets take their cue from trading in the U.S., according to a note earlier this month from analysts at J.P. Morgan. But Monday marked the second Monday in three weeks that a sharp drop in Shanghai was followed by a decline in New York.

'The market seems to be keying off the Shanghai Composite lately even though it didn't pay a lot of attention to it during the run up,' said Kevin Kruszenski, director of equity trading for KeyBanc Capital Markets. 'It shows people are looking for any reason to sell this market on a belief it's come too far, too fast.'

The latest round of China jitters comes at a time when many traders think that speculation had pushed oil's price ahead of what might be justified by supply and demand. Hopes in China's ability to provide new demand for oil to run factories, an expanding fleet of personal cars, and other machinery are fading.

'The energy markets have probably become the leading market for pricing in [an economic] recovery in China,' said energy analyst John Kilduff, of MF Global. 'Now it looks like we're likely to consolidate for awhile.'

Crude-oil futures slid $2.78 to settle at $69.96 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude still gained 0.7% in August.

Monday's sock pullback struck at a time when many investors in the U.S. were already primed to sell following a blistering summer run, with many traders now looking for a traditional 10% correction to shake the speculative excesses out of the market.

In particular, September has historically been a difficult month for the market, with the Dow averaging a 1.1% decline for the month dating back to 1900. That's the only month for which it has a negative performance over that timeframe, according to Ned Davis Research.

More broadly, the fall is known as a fraught time for traders because the U.S. crashes of 1929 and 1987 both happened in October. Last year's historic meltdown began in mid-September and led to an initial round of bear-market lows in October before a brief rally that eventually gave way to an even deeper pullback.

While no one is expecting a repeat of such calamity this year, many traders are on the defensive.

'I doubt if we get a big selloff before the end of the week,' when key jobs data are due, said Bob Bright, partner at the proprietary trading firm Bright Trading in Chicago. 'But beyond that, who knows? Most of my traders are just waiting for when everyone gets back from vacation after Labor Day to see what happens.'

While Mr. Bright said a correction is clearly possible in September, he's even more worried about weakness in the following month, after many funds and companies have closed out their fiscal years. As a result he's been selling bullish October call options on stocks he owns even more aggressively than September contracts.

Jason Trennert, managing partner at Strategas Research Partners in New York, said the consensus on Wall Street is that a market correction from the summer's highs is 'inevitable.' However, Mr. Trennert said that a few factors may help September 2009 buck the usual reputation of the ninth month as a rough patch for stocks.

He said many fund managers who sat out the summer rally may be apt to chase the S&P's year-to-date gains and that a continued deluge of stimulus spending may bolster key economic data and corporate profits. According to Strategas, less than 20% of the $787 billion stimulus package passed in February has been spent, with between $3 billion and $4 billion in new money being spent every week.

The dollar weakened against the euro and yen, which rose after a historic electoral victory by the upstart Democratic Party of Japan. Treasury prices were higher.

【中文译文】

在中国股市出现暴跌之后，美国投资者纷纷在8月份最后一个交易日规避风险，抛出股票和大宗商品。

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数下跌47.92点，收于9496.28点，跌幅0.5%，为连续第二个交易日下跌。美国铝业(Alcoa)、卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)和波音(Boeing)下跌超过3%。联合技术(United Technologies)跌0.5%。华特-迪士尼(Walt Disney)下跌3%，此前该公司表示将以大约40亿美元收购Marvel Entertainment。后者大涨25%。

尽管如此，美国股市8月份仍实现了上涨。当月道琼斯指数的涨幅为3.5%，是2000年以来表现最好的一个8月份。

纳斯达克综合指数下跌19.71点，收于2009.06点，跌幅1%。标准普尔500指数下跌8.30点，至1020.63点，跌幅0.8%。所有类股全线下跌，能源类股领跌，下跌了1.9%。

美国股市的下跌是由周一中国股市暴跌引发的，基准上证综合指数重挫6.7%，至2667.75点，为5月份以来的最低收盘点位。自8月4日见顶后，该指数已下跌了近四分之一。

根据JP摩根分析师上月早些时候的研究报告，中国股市通常会看美国股市的脸色行事。但本周一是三周来第二次中国股市周一大幅下跌带动随后的纽约股市下跌。

KeyBanc Capital Markets股票交易主管克鲁申斯基(Kevin Kruszenski)说，尽管在上证综合指数上涨期间人们没给予过多关注，但最近它引起了人们的高度重视。这表明投资者正在寻找任何理由进行抛售，原因就是他们认为股市上涨的过高、过快了。

与此同时，许多交易员认为，投机活动已经将油价推高到了脱离供需基本面的水平。对中国办厂、私家车增加和其他机械领域能够带来新增石油需求的希望正在消失。

MF Global能源分析师基尔达夫(John Kilduff)说，能源市场可能已成为反映中国经济复苏状况的先行市场。现在看来我们可能会整固一段时间。

纽约商交所原油期货结算价跌2.78美元，报每桶69.96美元。8月份原油仍上涨了0.7%。

周一股市的下滑正值许多美国投资者经过了炽手可热的夏季行情之后已经准备卖出，许多交易员现在都预期会出现传统的10%的修正，摆脱市场中的投机过度行为。

尤其是，9月在历史上一直都是股市的困难时期，从1900年算起，道指9月平均下滑1.1%。 市场分析和基金管理公司Ned Davis Research的数据显示，9月是这一时限中唯一一个出现下滑的月份。

从更大范围来说，秋季对交易员来说是危险时间，因为美国1929和1987年股市崩溃都是在10月发生的。去年的历史性崩盘自9月中旬始，10月进入熊市初期，随后短暂反弹，最终又让位于更严重的下挫。

虽然没人预期今年会出现这样的灾难性情形，但许多交易员还是采取了守势。

芝加哥专营机构Bright Trading的合伙人布莱特(Bob Bright)说，我怀疑本周结束前会不会出现大规模卖盘，关键的就业数据届时将发布。但在那之后的情形谁知道呢？我手下的大多数交易员都等着看大家劳动节（9月第一个星期一）假期回来后会出现什么情况。

布莱特认为9月份显然很有可能出现盘整，但他更担心的是10月份出现疲软，因许多基金和公司届时都将结束财年。因此，他一直在卖出所持的10月看涨期权，力度比9月合约还要大。

研究公司Strategas Research Partners的执行合伙人崔内特(Jason Trennert)说，华尔街人士一致认为，市场从夏季高点修正是不可避免的。不过，崔内特说，有一些因素可能帮助今年9月摆脱通常认为9月对股市不利的名声。

他说，许多在夏季反弹期间按兵不动的基金经理可能会追逐标普指数今年迄今的涨幅，同时经济刺激开支继续源源不断，可能提振关键经济数据和公司利润。Strategas的数据显示，今年2月通过的7,870亿美元刺激计划已经投放的不足20%，每周将有30亿-40亿美元的新资金投放。

美元兑欧元和日圆下跌。日本民主党在选举中取得历史性胜利，带动日圆走强。美国国债价格上扬。