[经济广角]中国股市昨日反弹 推动全球市场走高

Investors take heart as Shanghai bounces back

A powerful rebound for Chinese stocks offered an encouraging backdrop for global equity markets yesterday, although the broader risk environment was more mixed.

The Shanghai Composite index leapt 4.5 per cent – its biggest one-day rise since March – amid hopes of government action to support the market following its slide since the start of the month.

“China is currently being watched as a bellwether with concerns that the recent collapse in Chinese equities may act as a leading indicator for global equities,” said Sreekala Kochugovindan, asset allocation strategist at Barclays Capital.

“However, the latest bout of risk aversion has occurred against the backdrop of low volumes. History suggests that trends established during periods of low trading volumes have swiftly petered out once volumes picked up.”

Shanghai's advance helped other Asian equity markets rebound, with the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo rising 1.8 per cent and Hong Kong 1.9 per cent.

Europe followed suit, with the FTSE Eurofirst 300 gaining 1.4 per cent, while the S&P 500 was up 0.8 per cent by midday in New York.

US investors focused on the positives in what turned out to be a fairly mixed bag of economic releases. “It seems that more so than ever each trickle of data has even greater meaning attached to it at present,” said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers.

“That's probably due to the growing wariness over whether the patchwork quilt sewn together by government and central banks is sufficient to warm the consumer until artificial demand can be adequately replaced by genuine consumer demand.”

中国股市昨日强劲反弹，为全球股市提供了令人鼓舞的背景，不过各地风险环境的差异变得更大。

上证综指大涨4.5%，创3月份以来的最大单日涨幅，因市场认为，随着本月初以来股市一路下行，政府有望采取行动托市。

“人们正把中国当作领头羊加以关注，担心近期中国股市大跌，可能成为全球股市的先行指标，”巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)的资产配置策略师斯瑞卡拉•科丘戈文丹(Sreekala Kochugovindan)表示。

“不过，最新这一轮避险行动，是在交投清淡的背景下发生的。历史表明，在交投清淡时期确立的趋势，一旦交投活跃起来，就会迅速瓦解。”

上海股市上涨，带动亚洲其他市场反弹，日经225指数上涨1.8%，港股上涨1.9%。

欧洲富时Eurofirst 300乘势上涨1.4%；纽约市场午盘，标普500指数上涨0.8%。

尽管美国近期公布的经济数据好坏不一，但投资者把注意力放在了利好数据上。“目前看来，这种情况比以往任何时候都明显，每一丁点数据现在似乎都具有更多的含义，”盈透(Interactive Brokers)高级市场分析师安德鲁•威尔金森(Andrew Wilkinson)表示。

“这大概是因为，人们越来越在意，在真正的消费者需求彻底取代人为制造的需求之前，政府和央行联手缝制的被子是否足以为消费者御寒。”