Lex专栏: 印尼禁令将导致镍价反弹

“Did you know that Indonesia is at a crossroads? It is!” So said Homer Simpson, flipping vacuously through the Economist. But this is no joke: a ban on exports of unprocessed ore in January really could put Indonesia’s economy in a tricky place. The ban, aimed at building a local processing industry, is a bad idea when foreign investors are already getting spooked. The rupiah fell by a fifth against the US dollar in 2013. And the Federal Reserve is tapering.

“你知道印尼正处于一个十字路口吗？事实确实如此！”荷马•辛普森(Homer Simpson)漫不经心地翻看着《经济学人》(Economist)说道。但这并非玩笑：印尼自明年1月起禁止出口未经加工的铁矿石，很有可能让该国经济陷入艰难境地。在外国投资者本已惊慌之际，印尼试图依靠禁止出口发展国内冶炼业是一个糟糕的想法。2013年，印尼卢比兑美元汇率下跌20%，而美联储(Fed)正在逐步退出量化宽松政策。

The ban might seem like a terribly good idea to investors long nickel – the worst-performing base metal of 2013 because of excess supply. The nickel price, down by a fifth this year to $14,000 a tonne or so, is now below its marginal cost of production. Indonesia is the world’s biggest nickel producer. Time for a rebound on the back of the ban?

对做多镍的投资者来说，这一禁令的出台似乎构成了重大利好——由于供应过度，镍成为2013年表现最差的贱金属。镍价今年下跌20%至每吨1.4万美元左右，目前已跌破其边际生产成本。印尼是全球最大的镍生产国。在禁令的支持下，镍价反弹时机到了吗？

Not quite. First, the ban’s actual hit to Indonesian production could be less than total if international miners exploit a loophole that lets them export ore if they smelt the stuff first. Both Rusal and Glencore have beaten a path to Jakarta with blueprints for smelters; they have more knowhow than locals. An ironic outcome, given the ban’s aims.

不一定。首先，该禁令可能实际上对印尼的产量不会造成太大影响。这里有一个漏洞，国际矿商可以先在印尼国内冶炼镍矿石，然后再出口。俄罗斯铝业(Rusal)和嘉能可(Glencore)都带着建造冶炼厂的蓝图拜访了雅加达；它们的技术比印尼本土企业更先进。从禁令的目标来看，这种结果有些讽刺。

Second, the nickel business is still going through a structural shift to more capacity. Chinese production of nickel pig iron, a low-grade cheap alloy, has risen to a fifth of global nickel production from 5 per cent half a decade ago. Chinese smelters rely on Indonesian ore, but they have been stockpiling ahead of the ban. Deutsche Bank estimates that smelting and refining account for four-fifths of the income stream from nickel pig iron. Ninety per cent of the income from a metal such as copper, by contrast, goes to its miners.

其次，镍企业仍在转向结构性产能过剩。中国镍生铁（一种低品级的廉价合金）占全球镍产量的比例已从5年前的5%升至20%。中国冶炼商依赖印尼的镍矿石，但它们一直在禁令发布前囤积矿石。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)估计，冶炼和精炼占到镍生铁收入流的80%。相比之下，矿商可以拿到铜等金属总收入的90%。

Beyond the Indonesian ban, investors long nickel face their metal more or less turning into aluminium, which has similar low barriers to entry – and where prices are staying low. D’oh!

除了印尼禁令以外，做多镍的投资者还或多或少面临镍价行情类似铝的局面。铝的进入门槛同样很低，而且价格一直保持低位。这下可惨了！