黄金风光不再 恐将迎来最黑暗的日子

Up until last year, gold prices rose for at least 11 years in a row. The precious metal spawned a frenzy among everyone from gold bugs to politicos who think America should return to the gold standard. But today they're likely feeling nervous. Gold prices have entered bear market territory, having fallen by 22% this year.

直至去年，黄金价格已经连续上涨至少11年。这种贵金属让包括黄金投资者和政客在内的所有人产生了这样一种想法，即美国应该回归金本位制度。但如今他们很可能会感到紧张，因为金价已经进入熊市，今年以来跌幅已经达到了22%。

And it's going to get worse as investors zero in on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will scale down its stimulus program, called quantitative easing. Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts say gold will continue dropping into 2014, possibly falling below $1,000 an ounce, a level not seen since early 2009. This is a reverse from gold's steady rise from $800 an ounce in early 2009 to more than $1,900 in the fall of 2011; on Tuesday morning, it was trading at $1,314.50 in New York.

而且，未来形势将会变得更加糟糕，投资者正在关注美联储（Federal Reserve）是否会缩减经济刺激计划的规模，即量化宽松。高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析师表示，金价下跌将一直持续到2014年，届时可能会跌破每盎司1,000美元，创下自2009年初以来的新低。这个变化将扭转从2009年初到2011年秋天之间的趋势。在此期间，金价从800美元稳步上涨到了1,900上方。17日上午，纽约的黄金交易价格为每盎司1,314.50美元。

Regardless whether the Fed tapers its bond-buying program this week or later, a few other factors will likely drive prices lower.

无论美联储是否会在本周或随后缩减购债规模，其他一些因素都可能会推动金价走低。

Inflation. What inflation?

通胀，哪里来的通胀？

Gold is typically a hedge against rapidly rising prices. Since the financial crisis, many economies from U.S. to Europe have launched several rounds of quantitative easing. The supply of money tripled in most advanced economies, and many worried it would effectively stoke inflation.

通常情况下，黄金是对冲通货膨胀的一种手段。金融危机爆发以来，包括美国和欧洲国家在内的很多经济体都已经启动了多轮量化宽松。它导致大多数发达经济体的货币供应上涨了两倍，很多人担心这对通胀来说是火上浇油。

Unless all you consume is bacon, inflation hasn't been a problem as the U.S. and the rest of the world retreats from financial abyss. In fact, global inflation is actually low and falling further. In a June article in Project Syndicate, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini forecast that gold could fall to $1,000 by 2015.

除非大家消耗的全都是咸肉，否则随着美国和世界其他国家远离金融深渊，通胀已经不再是一个问题。事实上，全球通胀率目前正处于较低的水平，而且还在进一步下滑。Project Syndicate网站今年6月曾经发布了一篇文章，纽约大学经济学家努里尔?鲁比尼在文中预测，金价到2015年可能会下跌到每盎司1,000美元。

Roubini, nicknamed Dr. Doom for his forecasts of the financial crisis, noted that even though the supply of money has expanded it hasn't changed very many hands, largely because banks have been hoarding cash in the form of excess reserves.

鲁比尼因成功预测金融危机的到来而获得了“末日博士”的绰号，他指出，尽管货币供应量扩大了，但由于银行以额外储备金的方式来储备货币，因此货币的实际交易量并不大。

If banks start lending more, however, the risks of inflation could rise. Even then, gold faces other headwinds.

然而，如果银行开始放贷，通胀的风险就可能上升。即使那样，黄金仍然面临其他打压因素。

It may be safe, but where are the returns?

黄金也许是安全的，但它带来的回报在哪里？

Unlike other assets, gold provides no income. That was an overlooked issue during the worst years following the financial crisis, but now that the economy is improving, gold must compete with returns on other investments, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate.

跟其他资产不同的是，黄金并不提供收入。金融危机之后最惨淡的那些岁月里，这个问题一直遭到了忽视。但既然现在经济情况正在改善，那么黄金就必须跟其他投资品种，比如股票、债券以及房地产等在回报方面进行竞争。

Since Bernanke hinted it could scale back the Fed's bond-buying program soon, interest rates have surged, and they're poised to rise further. This effectively puts gold in a tough spot, as investors sell off the precious metal seeking higher returns in stocks, bonds, and other investments.

由于伯南克暗示美联储可能很快就会缩减购债规模，银行利率已经大幅飙升，而且有望进一步上升。这个变化生生将黄金推到了困境当中，因为投资者纷纷开始抛售这种贵金属，以寻求在股票、债券以及其他投资上获得更高的回报。

"The time to buy gold is when the real returns on cash and bonds are negative and falling," Roubini writes. "But the more positive outlook about the U.S. and the global economy implies that over time the Federal Reserve and other central banks will exit from quantitative easing and zero policy rates, which means that real rates will rise, rather than fall."

“购买黄金的时机是在现金和债券的实际回报率为负值以及在下滑的时候，”鲁比尼写道。 “不过，对于美国和全球经济前景更加积极的展望意味着，随着时间的推移，美联储和其他央行将退出量化宽松和零利率政策，这意味着实际利率将会上升，而不是下滑。”

Crisis in Syria has subsided (at least for now)

叙利亚危机已经平息（至少目前如此）

Gold is widely viewed as a safe-haven investment. When crisis arises, investors flock to the precious metal as a safe store of value.

人们普遍认为黄金是一种投资避风港，危机爆发时，投资者会纷纷涌向这种贵金属，把它作为一种安全的价值储存手段。

Markets have been zeroing in on conflicts in Syria, which could potentially push gold higher. At least for now, however, a military strike looks less likely as the country has accepted Russia's proposal for its chemical weapons to be given up for U.N. control. It remains to be seen if Syria is serious about its offer, but it does make U.S. military strikes less likely, at least in the near-term, according to JPMorgan analysts.

叙利亚爆发的冲突一直牵动着市场，有可能会推高金价。然而，至少从目前看来，针对叙利亚的军事打击不太可能发生，因为叙利亚已经接受了俄罗斯的提议，打算放弃化学武器，交由联合国控制。据摩根大通（JPMorgan）分析师分析，叙利亚是否会认真对待这项提议仍有待观察，但它确实让美国实施军事打击的可能性变小，至少在短期内是这样。

And even if the offer isn't serious, it's uncertain if Congress would vote for military action.

另外，即使叙利亚阳奉阴违，美国国会是否会投票支持军事行动仍是未知之数。

Another debt ceiling debate could be a snooze

新一次债务上限可能不会引起市场波动

There's another crisis to consider that could sway the direction of gold: The debt ceiling.

我们还要考虑另一场可能影响黄金走势的危机：债务上限。

As Americans will recall, there has been not one deadline -- but two -- since 2011. The first almost pushed the economy into catastrophe, with a major ratings agency taking the nation's stellar triple A rating away. The issue was resolved through $1 trillion in discretionary spending cuts combined with sequestration. The second one followed shortly after Obama's re-election, and like the first one, Republicans and Democrats came to an agreement; the debt ceiling was raised.

美国人都记得，自2011年以来已经出现两次债务上限。第一次几乎令美国经济陷入灾难，所有主要评级机构都下调了美国3A级别的主权评级。这个问题通过削减1万亿美元可自由支配开支、同时结合预算封存得到解决。第二次发生在奥巴马连任之后不久，跟第一次一样，共和党和民主党达成协议，再次提高了债务上限。

Come mid-October, the nation will approach another deadline. It's likely that the market might snooze through the third debt ceiling debate, as the previous ones were ultimately resolved. That would keep downward pressure on gold, but there is of course a possibility that the latest debt ceiling drama may turn out differently: Republicans say they will raise the debt ceiling only in return for budget concessions, while the Obama administration says it won't offer any.

今年10月中旬，美国又将迎来新一次债务上限。由于之前的债务上限问题最终都得到了解决，因此，在第三次债务上限的辩论过程中，市场很有可能不会出现波动。果真如此，黄金的下行压力还会延续。不过，当然还有一种可能性，新一次债务上限问题出现不同的局面：共和党人说，他们只有在预算让步的情况下才会同意提高债务上限，而奥巴马政府则表示不会做任何让步。

Eventually, either side will likely budge, but as the Washington Post's Ezra Klein points out, what alarms him now is that "no one can tell me how one or both of those positions will change before we breach the ceiling."

最终，两党很有可能会让步。但正如《华盛顿邮报》（ Washington Post）的以斯拉?克莱恩所指出的，现在让他恐慌的是：“没有人可以告诉我，在我们债务违约之前，两党中的一方或双方的立场将发生什么样的变化。”

That uncertainty may send gold higher, but it hasn't, at least not so far.

这种不确定性可能会金价走高，但它还没有，至少目前来说是这样。