金价大跌: 纸黄金跌停, 黄金牛市恐将告终

Gold prices have suffered their sharpest fall since the 1980s, heightening fears among investors that the precious metal’s decade-long bull run has ended.

黄金价格出现上世纪80年代以来的最大跌幅，凸显出投资者对长达十年的黄金牛市已经终结的担忧。

Spot gold prices tumbled more than $100 an ounce – 8.7 per cent – in a few hours yesterday amid a rout in metals markets, while silver fell 11 per cent.

金属市场周一出现暴跌，金价在几小时内下跌逾每盎司100美元，跌幅达8.7%，银价下跌11%。

Faltering European demand and weaker than expected Chinese economic data depressed oil prices, pushing Brent crude down by 3 per cent to $100.02 a barrel, a nine-month low.

欧洲需求减弱，加上中国经济数据逊于预期，导致布伦特原油价格下挫至每桶100.02美元，为9个月低位。

Gold’s drop since Friday to a two-year low of $1,355.80 a troy ounce is the sharpest two-day tumble since 1983, when the last gold bull market was unravelling. “This has really tested people’s resolve,” said David Rose, global head of metals trading at HSBC. “People who have said they want to be long are asking ‘How much do we really want gold to be part of our portfolios?’”

上周五以来，金价跌至每盎司1355.80美元的两年低位，创下1983年以来最大的两日跌幅——上一轮黄金市场牛市就在那一年崩溃。汇丰(HSBC)金属交易全球主管戴维•罗斯(David Rose)表示：“这真的考验人们的决心。那些曾表示想要做多的人开始问道，‘我们到底希望黄金在自己的投资组合中占据多大比重？’”

Gold has enjoyed a stellar run over the past decade. Prices surged more than sevenfold since 2001 to an all-time high of $1,920 a troy ounce in 2011, as investors turned to the metal as a haven from turmoil in the rest of the financial world.

黄金市场过去10年的表现非常强劲。自2001年以来，金价猛涨7倍以上，2011年冲高至每盎司1920美元的最高纪录，因为在金融业其他领域动荡不定之际，投资者大举吃进黄金，把它作为一种安全资产。

But as fears over the eurozone debt crisis recede and investors bet on a recovery in the US, sentiment towards gold has suffered. Credit Suisse, Société Générale and Goldman Sachs have all called the end of the bull market in recent months.

但随着对欧元区危机的担忧有所减轻，投资者押注美国经济将会复苏，黄金市场情绪受到了冲击。近几个月，瑞信(Credit Suisse)、法国兴业银行(Société Générale)和高盛(Goldman Sachs)都曾表示黄金牛市已终结。

“This is a market that has only got one thing on its mind: get me out [of gold],” said David Govett, head of precious metals at brokerage Marex Spectron.

经纪商Marex Spectron贵金属业务主管戴维•戈维特(David Govett)表示：“在黄金市场，人们想的只有一件事：卖出（黄金）。”

The collapse in prices will hurt investors with large gold holdings such as John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made Billions betting against the US housing market during the financial crisis.

金价下跌将伤害持有大量黄金的投资者，比如对冲基金经理约翰•保尔森(John Paulson)。金融危机期间，他曾因押注美国住房市场下挫而赚取了数十亿美元的利润。

In addition to Mr Paulson’s $3.1bn holding of shares in a gold exchange traded fund, at the end of last year Mr Paulson’s hedge funds controlled shares in at least nine gold miners worth almost $1.1bn at current prices, according to regulatory filings. More than half of that is in one stock, AngloGold Ashanti, whose shares have dropped 39.5 per cent this year.

相关监管文件显示，除了保尔森持有的31亿美元黄金交易所交易基金(ETF) 股票以外，他旗下对冲基金去年底还持有起码9家金矿企业的股票，按现价计算价值近11亿美元。其中半数以上是英美黄金阿散蒂公司(AngloGold Ashanti)的股票，这只股票今年已累计下跌39.5%。

John Reade, Paulson and Co partner and gold strategist, said the fund had not changed its long-term thesis on gold, arguing that quantitative easing by central banks would ultimately lead to higher inflation: “Federal governments have been printing money at an unprecedented rate creating demand for gold as an alternative currency. It is this expectation of global paper currency debasement which makes gold an attractive long-term investment.”

Paulson and Co合伙人、黄金策略师约翰•里德(John Reade)表示，该基金尚未改变投资黄金的长期主题，认为全球央行的量化宽松政策最终将导致通胀上扬：“联邦政府一直以前所未有的速度印钱，制造市场对黄金作为一种替代货币的需求。市场预计全球纸币将会贬值，这使黄金成为一种有吸引力的长期投资。”

More than half Paulson and Co assets are denominated in gold including the great majority of Mr Paulson’s own fortune, according to people familiar with the firm.

知情人士表示，Paulson and Co所持的超过半数资产都与黄金相关，其中也包括保尔森个人的大部分财富。

Bill Gross of Pimco, the bond fund manager, said that gold was a “decent hedge” in February. “OK, so I made a bad call,” he admitted in a tweet yesterday, but added that he “would still buy gold here”.

债券基金经理、太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)的比尔•格罗斯(Bill Gross)今年2月表示，黄金是一种“相当不错的保值资产”。他昨日在Twitter上承认，“好吧，我误判了形势，”但补充道，他“现在仍会买入黄金”。

In a New Year letter to investors, David Einhorn listed gold as one of his Greenlight fund’s top five holdings along with stock in Apple, Cigna, General Motors and Vodafone. “We took some lumps as gold declined,” he admitted in the letter.

在一封致投资者的信中，大卫•艾因霍恩(David Einhorn)把黄金列为绿光资本(Greenlight Capital)旗下一只基金的5大投资之一，其他为苹果(Apple)、Cigna、通用汽车(General Motors)和沃达丰(Vodafone)的股票。他在信中承认，“金价下跌让我们遭到一些打击。”

The Tudor hedge fund has been betting against the gold price this year, according to people familiar with the situation.

知情人士表示，今年以来，对冲基金图德(Tudor)一直押注金价将要下跌。

Mr Rose at HSBC said that investors had lost patience with arguments that higher inflation is inevitable: “QE is not inflating the world economies like governments have hoped. Commodities that have had inflation priced into them for a long time are struggling.”

汇丰的罗斯表示，投资者对通胀上扬不可避免的观点失去了耐心：“量化宽松没有像各国政府希望的那样，令世界经济出现通胀。长期在价格上计入通胀的大宗商品处境艰难。”