今年的生意不好做 当黄金遇上金融炼金术

For Surender Kumar Jindal, one of the biggest sellers of gold and silver bars in India, this year has not been good for business.

对印度最大的金银条卖家之一苏伦德.库马尔.金达尔(Surender Kumar Jindal)而言，今年的生意不好做。

In US dollar terms the gold price has rallied 20 per cent, putting it on course for its first annual rise in four years. For the Indian market that has contributed to a fall in demand for the physical metal.

以美元计算，金价上涨了20%，这是金价4年来首次年度上涨。对印度市场而言，这促使对实物黄金的需求下降。

Gold’s status in India, which stems from its role in weddings and use in rural savings, has helped make the country the biggest buyer of the bullion, so any slowdown is a worry for the industry.

黄金在印度被用于婚礼和农村储蓄，这样的地位使印度成为最大的黄金购买国，该国需求的任何放缓都让行业感到担忧。

“People aren’t buying because they know it’s not giving a return,” Mr Jindal says. “It is the price that decides; people are very price sensitive.”

“人们不购买，是因为他们知道黄金并不提供回报，”金达尔说，“价格是决定因素；人们对价格非常敏感。”

Lacklustre demand in India marks a big change for the physical gold market. After prices fell in 2013 many tonnes of metal flowed out of London vaults amid hefty buying from India and China.

印度对黄金的需求乏力标志着实物黄金市场的一个巨大改变。在2013年价格下跌以后，印度和中国的大量购买让许多吨黄金流出伦敦的金库。

But analysts say this does not mean the two largest consumers have lost their love for the bullion — rather the way people buy gold is starting to change.

但分析师表示，这并不意味着实物黄金的这两个最大消费国不再喜欢黄金——而是人们购买黄金的方式开始改变。

In China gold is becoming a popular investment through platforms run by state-owned banks that allow investments on the Shanghai Gold Exchange via smartphones and online. New financial investment products such as gold exchange traded funds have also attracted inflows.

在中国，通过国有银行运营的平台，人们可以借助智能手机或者在线渠道，在上海黄金交易所(Shanghai Gold Exchange)投资黄金，这使黄金成为了受欢迎的投资。黄金ETF等新金融投资产品也吸引了资金流入。

“You can see that China’s investment demand has the potential to be astonishing,” says Yang Qing at the Bank of China, speaking at the London Bullion Market Association conference in Singapore this month. “The proportion of gold in ordinary people’s asset allocation will increase.”

“你能看到，中国的投资需求有可能令人惊讶，”中国银行(BoC)的Yang Qing本月在新加坡举行的伦敦金银市场协会(London Bullion Market Association, 简称LBMA)会议上说，“黄金在普通人资产配置中的比例将会上升。”

The amount of gold in two Shanghai-listed gold-backed ETFs rose 10 times in the first half of the year, he adds.

两只在上海挂牌的黄金ETF持有的黄金数量在今年上半年上升了10倍，他补充道。

Such flows offset jewellery demand, which has fallen this year.

这种流动抵消了今年下降的黄金首饰需求。

Chow Tai Fook, a Hong Kong-listed retailer, reported a 22 per cent fall in same-store sales in China for the three months to September, and a 30 per cent decline in Hong Kong. Gold from Hong Kong, the mainland’s largest source of the metal last year, fell 23 per cent in August to their lowest since January.

据香港上市的黄金零售商周大福(Chow Tai Fook)报告，在截至9月的3个月中，中国内地同店销售下降22%，香港下降30%。香港是去年内地最大的黄金来源，来自香港的黄金在今年8月下降23%至1月以来的最低水平。

Chinese buying may also pick up after the recent decline in property prices, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师表示，在最近房地产价格下降以后，中国的黄金购买也可能回升。

Gold-based investment products are starting from a low base. China’s four listed ETFs had about 30 tonnes of gold as of July, a fraction of the 1,626 tonnes held by ETFs globally.

依托黄金的投资产品的起点基数很低。截至7月，中国的4只上市黄金ETF持有大约30吨黄金，在全球黄金ETF所持有的1626吨黄金中占一小部分。

ETFs, however, can grow rapidly. In the US, for example, State Street’s SPDR Gold Shares, which holds 954 tonnes of gold worth $39bn, was launched in 2004 on the New York Stock Exchange and became one of the biggest ETFs in the world in 2011.

然而，ETF可以快速增长。比如，在美国，道富银行(State Street)的SPDR Gold Shares持有954吨黄金，价值390亿美元，这只ETF于2004年在纽交所(NYSE)发售，并在2011年成为世界最大的ETF之一。

India’s market is more dominated by rural cash purchases than China’s, but the government is trying to shift some of that buying to the financial system. Last year it launched sovereign bonds backed by gold.

比起中国，印度的市场更加被农村地区现金购买主导，但政府正在尝试把一部分这样的购买转到金融系统。去年，印度发售了一些依托于黄金的主权债券。

The question is whether consumers will buy gold as they grow richer. Gold-backed financial products represent only 0.2 per cent of the value of India’s stock of gold, according to refiner MMTC-PAMP.

问题是，变得越来越富有的消费者是否还会购买黄金。根据精炼公司MMTC-PAMP的数据，黄金金融产品只占印度黄金存量价值的0.2%。

“It’s been drilled into [millennials] that you have to keep some savings in gold,” says Sunil Kashyap, managing director in global banking and markets at Scotiabank in India. “The only issue is there are many more distractions and many more opportunities for them to spend money elsewhere.”

“（千禧一代）被灌注一种思想，就是你必须储蓄一些黄金，”丰业银行(Scotiabank)全球银行和市场印度常务董事苏尼尔.卡什亚普(Sunil Kashyap)说，“唯一的问题是，现在有更多让人分心的事物，更多让他们把钱花在别处的机会。”

Meanwhile, the returns have paled compared with other investments. In rupee terms gold has returned 0.9 per cent since 2013, compared with 5.6 per cent for real estate and 11.9 per cent for local equities, according to Kotak Bank.

同时，黄金的回报率相比其他投资已经黯然失色。根据Kotak Bank的数据，以卢比计算，自2013年以来黄金的回报率是0.9%，房地产的回报率为5.6%，国内股票的回报率为11.9%。

Jewellery demand has also been hit, with imports of refined gold for consumption falling to 87 tonnes this year, from 370 tonnes in 2015, according to Metals Focus, an analysis group.

对黄金首饰的需求也受到了冲击，根据分析集团Metals Focus的数据，今年供消费的精炼黄金进口量从2015年的370吨下降至87吨。

However, Mr Jindal remains confident that while demand might fall from rural buyers, it will be made up for by demand for gold in new products.

然而，金达尔依然相信，尽管农村买家的需求可能下滑，对新的黄金产品的需求能够加以弥补。