货币起义:哪一种货币能推翻美元统治

When the euro was launched at the start of the century, it was meant to be a rival to the dollar. Turning it into the world's trading and reserve currency was, unofficially at least, part of the reason for creating it.

本世纪初推出欧元时，设计者们是有心让其与美元一争高下的。使欧元成为全球贸易和储备货币虽然不是官方提法，但至少是创立欧元的部分原因。

Officials from Frankfurt and Brussels missed no opportunity to crow over every sign that the euro was gaining ground on the U.S. dollar as a global standard. Every time a central bank increased its holdings of euros, it was presented as a triumph for Europe, and a defeat for the U.S.

只要一出现欧元取代美元成为全球基准的迹象，法兰克福和布鲁塞尔的官员们就会吹嘘一番。只要有央行增持欧元，就会被标榜为欧洲击败美国而取得的胜利。

There were some successes along the way. Over the first decade of the euro's existence, it steadily increased its share of global reserves, and there was talk of key commodity prices being switched out of dollars. It wasn't hard to understand why. The euro-zone has a bigger economy than the U.S. economy, and even this far into the crisis it still runs smaller deficits if you measure it as a single economy. Until the Greek crisis erupted, it was starting to look like a stronger currency.

欧元问世以来曾创造过一些辉煌。在欧元出现后的头十年里，其在全球外汇储备中的份额稳步增加，还有传闻称欧元会取代美元，成为主要大宗商品的计价货币。个中原因并不难理解。欧元区的经济规模比美国大，即使是在欧元区深陷危机泥潭的当下，如果将其作为单个经济体来衡量，欧元区的赤字规模仍小于美国。在希腊危机爆发之前，欧元已开始呈现走强趋势。

Now, however, that has been thrown into reverse.

然而，如今这一切发生了逆转。

The latest figures from the International Monetary Fund tell us that developing countries got rid of $45 billion of euro reserves in 2012, and have sold off $90 billion since 2011. The developing nations ─ which matter, because as big exporters they generally run trade surpluses and so rack up big reserves ─ kept 31% of their holdings in euros back in 2009. Now it is down to just 25%.

来自国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的最新数据告诉我们，发展中国家2012年减持了合450亿美元的欧元储备，2011年以来已抛售了合900亿美元的欧元储备。发展中国家──这些国家很重要，因为作为出口大国，它们一般拥有贸易顺差，从而积攒了巨额外汇储备──2009年欧元持有规模占外汇储备的31%。如今，这一比例降到了25%。

There are increasing signs people are hoarding dollars as well. According to recent figures from the Federal Reserve, the amount of dollar cash in circulation has jumped 42% since 2008, mainly because Europeans are stashing an ever-increasing number of high-value bills under their mattresses.

此外，有越来越多的迹象显示，普通人也在囤积美元。美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)的数据显示，2008年以来流通中的美元现金量攀升了42%，主要因为欧洲人在不断囤积高面值美钞。

'As Europe's crisis worsened in the spring of 2010, U.S. currency holdings rose sharply, ' said John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, in his bank's annual report. 'And they continued to rise as economic and political turmoil and uncertainty about the future sent Europeans scrambling to convert some of their euros to dollars.'

旧金山联邦储备银行(San Francisco Fed)行长威廉姆斯(John Williams)在该行年度报告中称：“随着2010年春季欧洲危机的恶化，美元持有量大幅增加。之后又持续增加，因为经济、政治形势的动荡以及围绕未来走向的不确定性促使欧洲人纷纷将部分欧元换成美元。”

It is a fair bet that flight into dollars has accelerated since the Cyprus crisis. A lot more $100 bills will have been stashed away across Southern Europe. There will have been a lot more interest as well in the emerging digital currencies. The Russians, according to Internet search data, have been showing the most interest in Bitcoin, but we can be certain many Europeans have started investigating it as well.

塞浦路斯危机发生以来，避险资金流向美元的步伐可能有所加快。在南欧，人们会囤积更多面值100美元的钞票。此外，对新兴数字货币的兴趣也会大大增强。互联网搜索数据显示，对比特币(Bitcoin)最感兴趣的是俄罗斯人，但我们可以肯定，欧洲其他国家也有很多人已经开始考察比特币了。

After all, it now seems clear that no deposit in any euro-zone bank is really safe. After the crisis in Cyprus, governments have shown they are willing to raid accounts for cash when they need to. If they've done that in Cyprus, they can do it in Spain and Italy as well. Indeed, it is not really clear whether a deposit held in euros at any bank ─ whether European or not ─ is really secure. Once governments start seizing assets arbitrarily, there are not many limits on what they might do.

毕竟，目前看来欧元区显然没有任何一家银行的存款是真正安全的。塞浦路斯危机后政府的所作所为显示出，他们会在必要时劫掠存款账户以获取现金。既然他们能在塞浦路斯这样做，他们在西班牙和意大利也一样能这样做。的确，任何银行（不管是不是欧洲银行）的欧元存款都不能保证绝对安全。政府一旦开始肆意攫取资产，他们的所作所为就没什么底线可言了。

It is hard to think of a clearer incentive to move your money out of the euro.

这无疑是将资金撤出欧元资产的最明确的诱因了。

Where is it all going to go? Despite all the hype, not many people are going to put a lot of money into new digital currencies like Bitcoin, at least not until they have a much better track record. Other big currencies such as the yen or the pound have central banks intent on trashing them. There is a limit to how much gold people want to own, and small safe haven currencies like the Swiss franc or the Norwegian krone can't handle the vast amounts of capital moving out of the euro.

那么资金会流向哪里呢？虽然新兴数字货币受到热炒，但不会有很多人把大笔资金投向比特币这样的新兴数字货币，至少在这类货币的过往表现大有起色之前不会。日圆和英镑等其他主要货币则有央行想要抛售。人们想要持有的黄金规模是有限的，而瑞士法郎和挪威克朗等小型避险货币则无法吸纳流出欧元的海量资金。

The result? The dollar is now back on top, for now at least.

结果是什么呢？美元现在重登王者宝座，至少暂时如此。

For investors, that matters. The dominant global currency is always going to be an essential part of every portfolio. The former French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing once described controlling the world's reserve currency as an 'exorbitant privilege' ─ and since he went on to become one of the key architects of the euro, it is clear he intended to grab those privileges for Europe.

对投资者来说这一点很重要。占据支配地位的全球性货币始终是所有投资组合的关键组成部分。法国前总统德斯坦(Val口ry Giscard d’Estaing)曾把对全球储备货币的控制称为“嚣张的特权”──德斯坦后来成为欧元的主要设计师之一，所以他显然是想为欧洲夺取这些特权。

The benefits are clear. Because everyone has to own the global currency, borrowing costs are lower than they would otherwise be. It is impossible to have a balance of payments crisis no matter how vast the deficit, because you can just issue a lot more currency to pay for it. Indeed, a lot of your debt is free. According to the Fed, two-thirds of the $1.175 trillion of dollar cash is held abroad, amounting to a vast interest-free loan to the U.S. It would cost $19 billion a year to service that debt.

这其中的好处是显而易见的。由于各国都必须拥有全球储备货币，这样借款成本就会降低。此外，无论赤字有多高，也不会出现国际收支危机，因为只要增发一大堆货币来填补赤字就可以了。你的很多债务其实都是无息的。美联储称，总计1.175万亿的美元现金有三分之二是海外持有的，这等于让美国获得了巨额无息贷款，否则，美国一年要花费190亿美元用于偿债。

True, the economic fundamentals don't really justify the dollar's position any more. Its public finances are in worse shape than almost any major economy apart from the U.K. It is no longer the dominant player in world trade it was 60 years ago. Not because the U.S. is doing badly, but because the world economy has got so much bigger. By 2016, according to IMF estimates, China will have overtaken it as the world's largest economy

没错，美国的经济基本面与美元的地位已经不那么匹配了。美国的公共财政状况比除英国以外的绝大多数主要经济体都要糟。美国已不像60年前那样在世界贸易领域占据支配地位了。这不是因为美国表现差，而是因为世界经济规模已比当时大得多。国际货币基金组织估计，到2016年，中国会超越美国，成为全球最大的经济体。

A challenger to the dollar will emerge eventually. After Britain was eclipsed by Germany and then the U.S., sterling staggered along for a while as a reserve currency, but its pivotal role in the global financial system could not be maintained for long.

美元的挑战者终有一天会出现。当年在英国被德国和美国相继超越之后，英镑在一段时间内仍然勉强保持着储备货币的地位，但其在全球金融体系中的核心地位无法长期保持下去。

Something will replace the dollar. But it isn't going to be the euro. The endless crisis within the single currency area, and the reckless decision to seize bank deposits in Cyprus has put paid to that.

美元终将被某种货币取代，但这种货币不会是欧元。欧元区无休止的危机和塞浦路斯攫取银行存款的鲁莽决定都使欧元无法代替美元成为储备货币。

And in the absence of any serious competitor the dollar is going to remain the cornerstone of the global financial system for at least another decade, and will be a key part of every investment portfolio.

由于缺少势均力敌的竞争对手，美元至少在未来十年里仍将是全球金融体系的基石，而且是所有投资组合的关键组成部分。