中国大趋势:当下世界遭遇崛起的中国

Regarded as the world`s leading futurist, Naisbitt shed light on his upcoming book Megatrends China during a recent visit to Beijing. He gained an extensive following in China back in the 1980s with Megatrends, which sold 14 million copies around the world and topped the New York Times best-seller list for the best part of two years. Back then, I was a postgraduate student at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and read his book word by word. Although I didn`t fully understand it, I found it very encouraging for China in the early years of its opening-up and reform.

不久前，世界著名未来学家奈斯比特来京宣传他的新书《中国大趋势》。早在20世纪80年代，他的《大趋势》在中国就大获好评，全球发行量达到1400万册，高踞《纽约时报》畅销书排行榜榜首两年多。那时，我还是中国社会科学院的研究生，曾逐字逐句地翻阅他的书籍。尽管不能完全理解书中的含义，我仍然觉得那本书给改革开放初期的中国很大的鼓舞。

When I finally met Naisbitt and his wife Doris in Beijing, I found the 80-year-old still hale and hearty. We had a friendly chat that was free of age or cultural differences. The old man`s eyes sparkled with wisdom, earnestness and a childish smile.

多年后，当我终于有幸在北京见到奈斯比特和他夫人多丽丝，我发现他虽已是80岁高龄，却依然身体健康、精神饱满。我们的谈话十分友好，完全没有年龄或者文化导致的差异。老人的眼中闪烁着智慧的光芒，眼神坚定不移，时而还会露出孩子般灿烂的笑容。

He recalled that when he had met then-Chinese President Jiang Zemin some years ago, Naisbitt had felt Taiwan was a small place with few stories that were told well, while the Chinese mainland was a huge place with many stories not told well. Jiang asked him why he didn`t tell those stories himself and Naisbitt had replied he wasn`t ready. After three years` research, Naisbitt is about to finally publish that book.

多年前，奈斯比特见到当时的国家主席江泽民时曾说，他认为台湾是个没什么故事的小地方，但它讲得很好。大陆有个许多故事可讲的大地方，可惜它讲得很糟。江泽民问奈斯比特道，你自己为什么不来讲这些故事呢？奈斯比特当时的回答是他还没有做好准备。辛苦调查3年后，奈斯比特的新书终于要与大家见面了。

He took out a pile of A4 paper and read out the contents of the book to me. After discussing the liberation of people`s thoughts in China, Naisbitt goes on to analyze the rise of its economy, society, culture, international relations and its efforts to establish a sustainable way of development.

他先是拿出一打A4纸，向我念起书中的部分内容。我们一起讨论了中国人民的思想解放，奈斯比特继续分析了中国经济、社会、文化和国际关系的迅速发展，和它尝试建立可持续发展所付出的努力。

Naisbitt has paid great attention to this country ever since his first trip here in 1967. More than 40 years` observation and studies have left him very upbeat about its prospects. Two decades ago, he had called China a country at dawn. In the 21st century, he points out that the dawn is turning into day and China is rising at an amazing speed.

其实，自从1967年首次踏入中国，奈斯比特就对这片土地产生了浓厚的兴趣。40多年的观察和学习让他对自己的预言更具信心。20多年前，他眼中的中国正处于黎明前的拂晓。进入21世纪后，他指出拂晓已经进入白昼，中国正以惊人的速度发展壮大。

He sums up the development of China and the West from several aspects. While Western countries are standing still, for instance, China is realizing new goals; in many areas, Western countries are confining people`s thoughts, while China is liberating thoughts; the West is increasing indirect control, but China is decreasing economic control and supervision.

新书中，他从多个角度总结了中国和西方国家的发展。例如，在西方国家停滞不前时，中国实现了一个个新目标；在很多领域，西方国家开始限制人们的思想，而中国却在解放思想；西方国家越来越加强间接控制的时候，中国却在减少经济管制和监督。

Western countries want to tell others that they solve problems, but China is pursuing more opportunities. Problem solvers focus on the past, opportunity seekers eye the future.

西方国家想要告诉世界它们解决问题，而中国却在寻找更多的机遇。相比之下，解决问题的人更注重过去，而寻找机遇的人则时刻注视着将来。

Crucially, Naisbitt says that the West is little prepared for the fact it is on a downhill path while China is rising. Fear and jealousy lead Western countries to often attack China and try to keep it out of their inner circle.

更重要的，奈斯比特认为西方国家还没有准备好接受这样一个事实--它们正在走下坡路，而中国却在不断崛起。恐惧和嫉妒让西方国家不断攻击中国，试图阻止中国进入它们的核心圈子。

The book ends with these words: Today, China has gained the most Olympic golds; tomorrow, it might become the biggest winner of Nobel Prizes.

新书以这样一句话结尾：今天，中国获得了最多的奥运金牌；明天，它可能成为诺贝尔奖最大的赢家。

I believe his analysis is spot on and that the future will unfold just as Naisbitt predicts.

我相信他的分析是准确无误的，我也相信未来将如奈斯比特所预料的那样展开。