日韩货币互换协议前景恐生变数

Japan may take steps to roll back an emergency financial lifeline with South Korea in response to a flare-up over contested islands, in what would be a departure from the neighbors' tradition of keeping economic affairs separate from territorial disagreements.

韩日两国间货币互换协议规模扩大措施到期后日本可能不会再予以延长，此举算是日本对韩日之间岛屿主权之争出现激化的一个回应。这和日本历来奉行的经济事务和领土争端互不干扰的传统是相违背的。

Senior members of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's Cabinet held a special meeting on Tuesday morning to discuss a response to the recent dispute with Seoul over the islands, effectively controlled by South Korea, which calls them the Dokdo Islands, while Japan refers to them as the Takeshima Islands. They are also known as the Liancourt Rocks.

日本首相野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)周二上午召集高级内阁成员举行了一次特别会议，以讨论日本政府应该对日韩间近日爆发的岛屿主权之争做出何种回应。这些岛屿由韩国控制，被韩方称为“独岛”(Dokdo Islands)，日本称之为“竹岛”(Takeshima Islands)，这些岛屿在国际上还被称作“利扬库尔岩”(Liancourt Rocks)。

After the meeting, Finance Minister Jun Azumi said a decision has yet to be made on whether to extend a currency-swap agreement with South Korea.

会议结束后，日本财务大臣安住淳(Jun Azumi)说，日本政府尚未决定是否延长韩日两国间的一项货币互换协议。

'We are at the drawing board regarding what we will do about this agreement,' Mr. Azumi said. He declined to comment on what he said at the meeting on the swap agreement.

安住淳说，有关日本政府将如何处理这项协议，我们目前还处于讨论阶段。安住淳拒绝谈论他在相关讨论会上都说了些什么。

Mr. Noda is trying to diffuse a separate territorial spat with China, over which he has been criticized by opposition parties for being too soft.

野田佳彦正试图化解中日之间的另一场领土争端，日本国内的反对党批评野田在中日领土争端问题上过于软弱。

Anti-Japanese protests erupted across China after Japanese activists landed on one of the islands in that dispute Sunday, with Chinese media keeping up the rhetoric Monday. 'The national strength of China, as long as its growth continues, will become the bargaining chips that force Japan to back off,' wrote the Global Times, a popular Chinese tabloid with nationalist leanings, in an English editorial.

日本活动人士周日登上中日存在主权争议的岛屿后(中国称这些岛屿为钓鱼岛，日本称之为尖阁列岛)，中国多个地区爆发了反日抗议活动，中国媒体周一继续就这一问题发表观点。中国国内带民族主义倾向的小报《环球时报》在一篇英文社论中写道，只要国家实力跟得上，这些力量一定会转化成要求日本后退的筹码。

The Japanese activists landed on the Japanese-controlled islands─which are also claimed by China and Taiwan and known as Senkaku in Japan and as Diaoyu in Chinese─after activists from Hong Kong landed there last week, later to be deported by Japan.

日本活动人士是在香港保钓人士上周登陆钓鱼岛之后登上日方控制的这一岛屿的。香港保钓人士后来遭到日本的驱逐。中国大陆和台湾都声称对钓鱼岛拥有主权。

The territorial spat between Tokyo and Seoul began when South Korean President Lee Myung-bak visited the Liancourt Rocks earlier this month.

韩国总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)本月早些时候登上利扬库尔岩，随后韩日两国间爆发了这场领土争端。

The two countries agreed in October to expand the currency-swap line─an agreement to temporarily lend each other dollars-to $70 billion from $13 billion for one year. The increase had been requested by South Korea, which was concerned about potential capital outflows resulting from the European debt crisis, another Japanese official said.

韩日两国去年10月达成协议，同意将两国间货币互换的规模从此前的130亿美元增加至700亿美元，协议为期一年。签署货币互换协议是为了向彼此临时借贷美元。另一位日本官员说，增加货币互换规模的要求是韩国提出的，因为韩国担心欧债危机可能导致资本外流。

Further offending many Japanese last week, after visiting the islands, Mr. Lee made remarks interpreted as being disrespectful to Japan's emperor, whom many Japanese hold in high esteem. The comments 'really raised the hurdle' for the Finance Ministry to keep financial cooperation separate from politics, a Japanese official said.

在登临日韩争议岛屿之后，李明博上周又发表了被解读为对日本天皇不敬的言论，天皇在很多日本人心中拥有极高的威望，李明博此举进一步冒犯了许多日本人。日本的一名官员说，这些言论使日本财务省难以做到让经济合作独立于政治影响之外。

On Friday, Mr. Azumi signaled that Japan might let the expansion of the currency swap expire at the end of October.

安住淳上周五暗示，日本可能会让日韩两国间的货币互换协议规模扩大措施在10月底到期后不再续延。

Other potential steps Tokyo could take include indefinitely postponing planned purchases of South Korean government debt, Japanese officials said.

日本官员说，东京还可能采取其他措施，比如将购买韩国政府债券的计划无限期推迟。

But some analysts say the financial steps being considered by the two nations are mostly symbolic. Even if Japan rolls back the swap agreement, South Korea wouldn't suffer much because it already has the world's seventh-largest foreign-exchange reserves-$314.35 billion at the end of July. It can also rely on swap deals with other nations as well as Asia's regional firewall mechanism, these analysts say.

但是一些分析人士说，日韩两国正在考虑的金融惩罚措施多数只是象征性的。即使日本不再续延日韩两国间的货币互换协议规模扩大措施，韩国也不会受到很大影响，因为韩国的外汇储备在全世界排名第七，7月底时已经达到3143.5亿美元。这些分析人士说，韩国还可以依赖它与亚洲其他国家达成的货币互换协议，或是求助于亚洲地区的防火 机制。

They also say a decision by Japan not to buy Korean government bonds would actually help Seoul, which is worried about foreign buying of such debt pushing up the value of the Korean won. Rises in the won hurt Korean exporters by making their products more expensive abroad.

这些人士还说，日方不购买韩国政府债券的决定事实上可能反而会帮了韩国。韩国正在担心其他国家购买这类债券会导致韩圆升值，进而损害韩国出口商的利益。

And while South Korea is the third-biggest importer of Japanese goods after China and the U.S., economists in Tokyo said a potential drop in Korean purchases wouldn't have much impact on Japan's economy.

东京的经济学家说，尽管韩国是日本产品的第三大进口国，仅次于中国和美国，但日本对韩出口可能出现的下降不会对日本经济造成太大影响。

Many South Korean imports from Japan are intermediate items used by Japanese factories to build finished products for export elsewhere. Thus, even if South Korean demand for Japanese exports shrinks, it may have no meaningful effect on Japan's economy, said Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute.

日本第一生命研究所(Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute)首席经济学家长滨敏弘(Toshihiro Nagahama)说，韩国从日本进口的许多商品是中间产品，日本可以用这些中间产品制造出成品出口到其他国家。因此，即使韩国对日本产品的需求降低，可能也不会对日本经济产生实质性影响。

'The impact would be much bigger if the same happened in China,' he said, as China is steadily becoming more of a consumer of Japanese items, rather than a mere factory base for Japanese makers.

他说，如果同样的事发生在中国，影响会大得多。因为中国正日益成为日本产品的消费者，而不只是日本制造商的生产基地。

Another Japanese official said putting the Japan-South Korean financial cooperation back on track might be difficult until after Mr. Lee steps down later this year.

另一名日本官员说，李明博今年晚些时候卸任之前，日韩经济合作很难回到正轨。

Mr. Lee's Conservative Party faces a presidential election in December, but he is constitutionally barred from a second term.

李明博所在的保守派政党将参与今年12月份的总统大选，但是根据韩国宪法，李明博不能连任。