澳门赌场旺不旺看中国

Gamblers have no way of telling the end of a winning streak from a random loss. Investors in casino stocks face the same problem. Gaming revenues in Macau grew during December, but not as much as expected. Sharp-eyed shareholders in these casinos should focus on liquidity conditions in China rather than revenues in the former Portuguese colony.

偶然输一次，赌徒们没法判断他们的好手气是否要结束了。博彩股的投资者也有类似的问题。12月，澳门的博彩业收入有所增长，但并未达到预期。各家赌场有眼光的股东们应该关注的是中国的流动性状况，而不是这块葡萄牙前殖民地的收入。

Shares prices of Wynn Macau and Galaxy Entertainment roughly doubled last year and near their 2013 peaks. Competitor Sands China, which attracts fewer high-rollers, gained a mere quarter. Investors expect more of the same in 2018. New infrastructure in Macau, such as the Zhuhai bridge, should deliver more mainlanders to the tables more quickly. Casinos have already added rooms to accommodate them, so capital spending should slow down in coming years.

永利澳门(Wynn Macau)与银河娱乐集团(Galaxy Entertainment)的股价去年差不多翻了一番，目前接近2013年的峰值。金沙中国(Sands China)吸引的豪赌客要少一些，股价涨幅仅为四分之一。投资者们预计2018年的情况也会差不多。澳门新建的基础设施，如港珠澳大桥，应该能以更快的速度将更多的内地人送到赌桌上。各家赌场已为此增设了客房，因此未来几年的资本支出应当会放缓。

Revenues have grown because the middle classes as well as the super-rich are flocking to gambling tables. Morgan Stanley analysts expect this trend to continue as consumers become wealthier. Diversifying the customer base should support earnings growth. Wynn Macau looks particularly well placed, given that competitor facilities remain under construction while its own are complete. That should help it take market share.

博彩收入增长，是因为中产阶级和超级富豪蜂拥坐到赌桌前。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析师们预测，随着消费者愈加富有，这种趋势将继续下去。客户群多样化应该能够为盈利增长提供支撑。考虑到竞争对手还在兴建设施，而自己的设施完善，永利澳门似乎处于有利地位。这应该有助于永利澳门抢占市场份额。

Provided, of course, that Chinese keep spending — and are permitted to do so. China’s regulators have limited citizens’ ability to withdraw cash; annual foreign cash withdrawal limits were tightened to Rmb100,000 per person last weekend. Though similar measures have had little effect on spending in the past, monetary tightening by China probably would. Last month its central bank raised interest rates, the first time since March.

当然，前提是中国人会继续消费---并且政府允许他们这样做。中国的监管机构早对公民提取现金的能力加以限制；上周末，每人每年境外提现金额被收紧至10万元人民币。虽然以往类似举措对支出的影响并不大，但中国收紧货币政策大概会起到作用。上个月，中国央行提高了市场利率，这是自3月以来的首个加息动作。

Casino stocks in Hong Kong recovered on Wednesday, after selling off following the disappointing industry data. Investors are right to ignore one month’s revenue underperformance and focus on broader trends — where they will also find risks to the bullish thesis.

香港博彩类股票因行业数据令人失望而下跌后，周三展开反弹。投资者对单月收入欠佳不以为意而着眼于大势是正确之举——他们也会从整体乐观的趋势中发现风险。