亚洲对冲基金新发数量创新低并非坏事

Hedge funds often launch when markets are high, like butterflies hatching on a warm day. But despite buoyant stocks, Asia has produced the smallest number of new openings in the year to date for 17 years, according to data from Eurekahedge.

对冲基金经常在市场处于高位时上市，就像蝴蝶在温暖的日子里孵化一样。尽管股市上涨，但Eurekahedge的数据显示，亚洲今年新发行的对冲基金数量创下17年来的新低。

It is not for want of investors: asset inflows to established funds were stronger than at any time since 2013. A different kind of risk aversion appears to be at play: the fear that startups will not match returns from old stagers.

这并非因为缺少投资者：自2013年以来，现有基金的资产流入比以往任何时候都更加强劲。一种不同的风险规避心理似乎正在发挥作用：人们担心初创基金的投资回报比不上老牌基金。

Chinese funds returned 22 per cent this year to date, according to an index compiled by Eurekahedge. That was five times equivalent US returns. A rally in Chinese technology stocks was an important reason for this — MSCI’s China Technology benchmark has returned 80 per cent since January. A weaker dollar also tends to boost emerging market assets.

Eurekahedge编制的一个指数显示，今年迄今中国基金的投资回报率为22%，这是美国基金回报率的五倍。中国科技股的涨势是其中一个重要原因——自今年1月以来，MSCI中国科技股指数的回报率已达到80%。美元走弱也提振了新兴市场的资产。

Three quarters of funds in Asia manage less than $100m. This little league suffers as investors have become demanding in allocating funds. They want a performance track record, but increasingly see large funds as complacent and expensive. Globally, the mid tier, with assets of $100m-$500m, has benefitted most. Net inflows amounted to $26.4bn. A higher ratio to start-of-year assets than for any other category — except sub-$20m funds.

亚洲有四分之三的基金规模不到1亿美元。随着投资者在资金分配上的要求变高，这种小规模带来不利。投资者想要一个业绩记录，但日益认为大基金自满、昂贵。全球而言，规模为1亿美元至5亿美元之间的中间层基金受益最大。资本净流入达264亿美元。与年初资产之比高于其他任何类别——规模小于2000万美元的基金除外。

Investors tend to chase returns. They risk coming late to the party. Distressed debt strategies are one of the most successful strategies so far this year. But Lai Xiaomin, CEO of Huarang Asset Management, set up in 1999 to deal with bad debt of China’s commercial banks, has said the market is in a bubble.

投资者倾向于追逐回报。他们的风险在于加入派对已经太迟。不良债务策略是今年迄今最成功的策略之一。但1999年成立的处理中国商业银行坏账的中国华融资产管理公司的CEO赖小民表示，该市场正处于一个泡沫之中。

As Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index hits new post-financial crisis highs, it is probably a good thing that new entrants can only launch selectively. If the Asian hedge fund sector is overcoming a tendency for cyclicality — at least as defined by the number of fund launches — it is growing up.

随着香港恒生指数(Hang Seng index)触及自全球金融危机以来的最高点，新基金只能有选择地推出很可能是件好事。如果说亚洲对冲基金行业正在克服周期性的倾向（至少按基金发行数量来界定是如此），那就说明该行业在成长。