三笔债券发行取消未动摇投资者对亚洲信心

Three Asian bond sales pulled in a single day. In other economic cycles, it would be the sort of event that might help a reporter win a name for spotting early signals of far bigger trouble. But there are few signs the failures were a harbinger of something more serious.

三只亚洲债券在同一天内取消发售。在其他经济周期中，这一情形或许能帮助记者因观察到更大问题的早期信号而出名。但是没有多少迹象表明这些债券发售失败是某个严重危机的预兆。

This week three junk-rated borrowers — Chinese, Indonesian and Indian — pulled bond offerings, unhappy at their borrowing costs. For any issuer to withdraw a deal after launch is extremely rare. Emerging market sovereign credit spreads — the basis off which companies price their bond sales deals have been edging higher for the past three months, too.

本周，三个被评为垃圾级的借款方——分别来自中国、印度尼西亚和印度——因对其借款成本感到不满而取消债券发行。任何一家发行方在债券发行启动后取消是极为罕见的。过去三个月新兴市场主权信用利差——企业据之为债券发行定价——也不断走高。

Asian companies have also been borrowing record amounts this year in the dollar bond markets. Twenty years on from the Asian financial crisis, and ten since the western credit crunch that presaged the 2008 global financial crisis, that might augur badly, too.

亚洲企业今年在美元债券市场发债也创下纪录。在亚洲金融危机爆发20年后，以及西方信贷危机——预示了2008年全球金融危机——发生10年后，这也可能预示着严重问题。

Yet that has not been the whole picture this week. Asia’s emerging equity markets, as measured by MSCI’s Asia ex-Japan index, have rallied to a 10-year high as companies such as Samsung Electronics produce record profits. So far this year, the index has gained 27 per cent. On Thursday, the region’s currencies jumped after investors judged policymakers at the Federal Reserve took a dovish stance on interest rates, pushing a broad measure of the dollar to a 14-month low.

不过这还不是本周的全部情况。根据MSCI亚洲（除日本外）指数，亚洲新兴股票市场由于三星电子(Samsung Electronics)等公司盈利创历史新高而达到10年来的高点。今年迄今为止，该指数已经上涨了27%。周四，由于投资者认为美联储(Fed)政策制定者对利率采取温和态度，该地区货币整体走高，推动美元广义指数降至14个月低点。

But this benign environment is making some nervous. After all, Asia began the year facing a strong dollar, a hawkish Federal Reserve and the fear that Donald Trump would impose the crushing trade tariffs he threatened throughout the presidential campaign.

但这个良性环境还是让有些人感到紧张。毕竟，亚洲今年开头就面临着强劲的美元，鹰派的美联储，以及对唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)会推行在整个总统竞选期间所威胁的破坏性贸易关税的担忧。

With that backdrop in mind, it can be hard for emerging market investors to believe their luck. Treasury yields seem effectively capped until the Fed sounds a more hawkish tone, while the dollar is far softer than most expected back in January. Commodity prices have picked up and profits are rising. Even China’s economy is doing better than expected.

在这样的背景下，新兴市场投资者很难相信自己的好运气。国债收益率似乎有了实际的上限，除非美联储的论调更趋鹰派，而美元远远疲软于1月份多数人的预期。大宗商品价格已回升，企业利润也在不断上涨。就连中国经济也好于预期。

“Goldilocks or Cinderella?” asked the emerging market credit strategists at Citigroup this month, summing up the debate between those who believe in this “just right” backdrop and those who fear it is a mirage that will disappear without warning.

“是金发姑娘（Goldilocks，比喻刚刚好——译者注）还是灰姑娘？”本月花旗集团(Citigroup)新兴市场信用策略师问道，以此作为一场辩论的总结。辩论的一方相信当前环境“刚刚好”，另一方担心这是场没有预警就会消失的海市蜃楼。

Others take a much longer-term view. Economists at Standard Life this week unveiled what they say is a more rigorous model for gauging global business cycles — and concluded that the probability of recession in the world’s large economies in the next two years is low.

有些人目光长远得多。标准人寿(Standard Life)的经济学家本周公布了他们声称更严格的衡量全球商业周期的模型——他们的结论是，未来两年全球大型经济体出现衰退的可能性较低。

It is a conclusion echoed by the Asia team at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager.

这一结论得到了全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)亚洲团队的呼应。

“I think we’re in midcycle and that this is just a much longer and slower economic expansion,” says Belinda Boa, BlackRock’s head of active investments for Asia Pacific, who believes many of her clients are still being too cautious in their investment strategies. “We don’t see the risk of a recession immediately — we think the recession risk is rather in years than quarters.”

“我认为我们处于周期的中期，这只是一次更长时间、更缓慢的经济扩张，”贝莱德亚太区主动投资主管贝琳达?博阿(Belinda Boa)说。她认为许多自己的客户在投资策略上仍过于谨慎。“我们没有看到迫在眉睫的衰退风险——我们认为衰退风险的到来将以年计，而非以季度计。”

Other subscribers to the Goldilocks view point to emerging markets’ low inflation, and only moderate valuations. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan, for example, is trading on 14 times forecast profits. That is at the high end of its range for the past six years — a period during which profits have consistently disappointed — but far short of the 19 times earnings reached in 2007.

其他持“金发姑娘”看法的人士指向了新兴市场的低通胀，以及并不算高的估值。例如，MSCI亚洲（日本除外）指数的预期市盈率为14倍。这处于过去6年（利润一直令人失望的时期）区间的高点，但远低于2007年达到的19倍。

The three failed bond deals caused little more than ripples in bond investing circles this week. Another junk-rated bond sale that successfully completed on that same day, traded higher on its debut, implying broader investor ease. Most have chalked the failures up to market indigestion following a series of very low-grade borrowers rushing to beat the impending summer lull.

本周这三笔失败的债券发行在债券投资界仅引发了一点点涟漪效应。同一天成功完成的另一笔垃圾级债券发售，刚开始交易便走高，意味着投资者更普遍的放松情绪。多数人把这些失败归因于市场消化不良，因为此前一系列非常低信用等级的借款人急于打破即将到来的夏季低迷期。

If it were all about to go wrong, then the lack of reaction to failed deals, as well as the common talk of a Goldilocks scenario, will be seen as examples of markets’ last hurrah. It is a decade since Citigroup’s then chief executive, Chuck Prince, famously told the Financial Times that if music was playing the bank was “still dancing” even as the credit crunch loomed — a crunch that would drag Asia with it.

如果最终出了问题，那么现在对失败交易无动于衷、以及普遍持“金发姑娘”看法，届时将被视为市场最后欢呼的例子。十年前，花旗集团时任首席执行官查克?普林斯(Chuck Prince)曾对英国《金融时报》说了一句著名的话：如果音乐不停，该行“仍在跳舞”，即便信贷危机已经逼近——而这场危机将拖累整个亚洲。

Such anniversaries are a reminder why plenty of investors are struggling to believe in the fairytale outlook they see before them.

此类周年纪念提醒人们，为什么大量投资者不愿相信自己面前童话般的前景。