中国金融外交面对高风险赌局(下)

‘We look forwards’

我们向前看

Venezuela may be an extreme case, but it is far from the only risky bet that China’s overseas development finance regime has become entangled with.

委内瑞拉或许是一个极端案例，但它绝非中国海外发展融资模式押下的唯一高风险赌注。

Six of the top 10 recipients of Chinese development finance commitments between 2013 and 2015 were classified alongside Venezuela in the highest category of default risk ranked by the Paris-based OECD.

2013年至2015年期间得到中国发展融资承诺的前10个接收国中，包括委内瑞拉有6个国家被总部位于巴黎的经合组织(OECD)列入了违约风险最大的国家之列。

By contrast, only two of the top 10 recipients of World Bank development finance fell into the same category.

相比之下，在世行发展融资的前10个接收国中，只有两个国家处于同一风险级别。

A weighted average of the OECD risk ratings on the top 10 borrowers shows that the Chinese overseas development loan portfolio is about 20 per cent more risky than that of the World Bank, according to Financial Times calculations using figures from the World Bank and Grisons Peak, a boutique investment bank which compiles China data.

英国《金融时报》利用世行和Grisons Peak的数据，计算了中国和世行前十大借款国的OECD风险评估的加权平均值，结果表明中国海外发展贷款组合的风险比世行高20%。 Grisons Peak是一家汇编中国数据的专业投行。

Part of the reason for this comes down to a philosophical divergence.

造成这一现象的部分原因可归结为理念的不同。

We assess risk differently than western agencies because we look at the potential for development of a country, says an official at a Chinese policy bank.

我们评估风险的方式不同于西方机构，因为我们看的是一个国家的发展潜力，中国某政策性银行的一位官员表示。

They look backwards, we look forwards.

西方机构看过去，我们看未来。

We know that maybe all they need is infrastructure and if you build that infrastructure then their economy will grow, he added.

我们知道，或许他们需要的只是基础设施，如果建好了基础设施，他们的经济就会增长，他补充说。

Nevertheless, there is ample evidence that Beijing, buffeted by a mounting domestic debt problem and dwindling returns to state-owned enterprises, is starting to take a colder, harder approach to its overseas development agenda.

然而，有充分的证据表明，受日益严峻的国内债务问题及国企效益萎缩困扰的中国政府，已开始对其海外发展议程采取更冷静、更严格的处理方式。

At the country level, some borrowers are seeing their credit lines curbed while, at the project level, Chinese institutions are driving a harder bargain to ensure a viable return.

在国家层面，一些债务国的贷款额度受到了限制，而在项目层面，中资机构正在极力讨价还价，以确保经济效益。

Russia, which with $15.7bn was the top recipient of loan commitments between 2013 and 2015, according to data compiled by Grisons Peak, is expected to see dwindling support from China.

Grisons Peak汇编的数据显示，2013年至2015年，俄罗斯获得了中国157亿美元的贷款承诺，是所有接收国中最多的 但预计俄罗斯今后获得来自中国的资金支持将逐渐减少。

Chinese lending this year and next is likely to fall off from the level of recent years because they are keen to keep their own resources and because they do not see so many attractive opportunities within Russia for their investment, says a senior Russian government official, who declined to be identified.

中国今明两年发放的贷款很可能不如近几年的水平，因为他们急于保住自己的资源，也是因为他们在俄罗斯看不到太多有吸引力的投资机会，一位不愿透露姓名的俄罗斯高级官员表示。

In March, Chinese premier Li Keqiang stated that western sanctions had not deterred Chinese investment in Russia.

今年3月，中国国务院总理李克强称，西方制裁并未阻碍中国在俄罗斯的投资。

But Chinese private businesses have been vocal about the difficulties of doing business in Russia, and even large state-to-state oil projects are still subject to intense talks long after official deals are signed.

但中国民营企业一直抱怨在俄罗斯做生意困难，而且即便是政府间的大型石油项目在正式协议签署后也还要进行长时间的密集谈判。

The weak rouble has also affected Chinese investment interest.

卢布贬值也影响了中国企业的投资兴趣。

Zimbabwe and Sudan are two other important recipients encountering a cooling in support, according to the Chinese officials.

根据中国官员的说法，另外两个遭遇中国减少资金支持的重要贷款接收国是津巴布韦和苏丹。

Henry Tillman, chief executive of Grisons Peak, says China is starting to strike a balance between the strategic partnerships it forms with countries and the necessity to mitigate credit risk.

Grisons Peak首席执行官亨利•蒂尔曼(Henry Tillman)称，中国正开始在建立战略合作伙伴关系与降低信贷风险之间寻找平衡。

In some cases policy banks have been increasing proposed interest rates, in some cases shortening maturities [on loans], in some cases refusing to fund previously committed second tranches of loans, Mr Tillman says.

蒂尔曼表示：在某些情况下，政策性银行要求更高的利率，在某些情况下缩短（贷款）期限，还有些情况则拒绝发放先前承诺的第二期贷款。

In tandem, the newly launched China-led multilateral development banks and funds such as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank are spreading risk by lending alongside partners such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, he says.

他表示，新成立的亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)等中国主导的多边开发银行和基金正在通过与世行、亚洲开发银行(ADB)、欧洲复兴开发银行(EBRD)等伙伴合作放贷来分散风险。

Continental shift

整个非洲大陆都感受到变化

In Africa, the chill in China’s embrace is evident.

在非洲，中国的态度降温是很明显的。

A cancellation by the Ghanaian government last year of half a $3bn loan extended in 2010 was the result of CDB tightening terms on the loan.

由于国开行收紧了贷款条件，加纳政府去年叫停了2010年一项30亿美元贷款协议中的半数贷款。

The bank raised the volume of oil it demanded as payment for the loan from 13,000 to 15,000 barrels a day, making it uneconomic, according to a paper by Thomas Chen, former economic officer at the US Embassy in Ghana.

美国驻加纳大使馆前经济官员Thomas Chen在一篇文章中称，该行要求用于偿还贷款的石油数量从每天1.3万桶提高至1.5万桶，导致这笔交易对加纳而言变得不划算。

Shades of Ghana’s experience are being felt elsewhere on the continent.

非洲大陆其他国家对加纳经历的问题也感同身受。

Countries that once saw China as a cash cow are starting to return to other sources of global capital due to a rise in Chinese interest rates, says Tang Xiaoyang, a China-Africa scholar at Tsinghua University.

清华大学(Tsinghua University)中非关系学者唐晓阳表示，由于中资机构贷款利率提高，曾把中国视为摇钱树的非洲国家开始转向其他全球资本来源。

A lot of China’s newly pledged loans are not [official development assistance loans] but are rather market activity, so African governments are less interested in taking them if they can find other better sources, Mr Tang says.

中国新承诺的很多贷款并非（官方发展援助贷款），而是市场活动，因此，非洲各国政府对这些贷款不那么感兴趣了，如果他们能找到其他更好资金来源的话，唐晓阳说。

Another factor in the flagging popularity of Chinese finance is that it is often tied to the execution of an infrastructure project by Chinese companies sourcing Chinese equipment and employing mostly Chinese workers.

中国融资受欢迎程度下降的另一个因素是，贷款经常捆绑基建工程，而这些基建工程要由中国公司采购中国设备、主要雇佣中国工人实施。

For as long as the costs of such projects were far lower than competitors, recipient countries were willing to accept such terms.

只要这些工程的成本远低于竞争对手，接收国就愿意接受这样的条件。

But recent examples of white elephants are forcing them to rethink.

但是近期一些工程中断的例子正在迫使他们进行反思。

High-speed railway diplomacy is a case in point.

高铁外交就是一个例子。

Agatha Kratz, associate policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, says such projects are rarely commercially viable because of the technology and construction costs involved.

欧洲对外关系委员会(European Council on Foreign Relations)副政策研究员阿加莎•克拉茨(Agatha Kratz)说，考虑到技术和建设成本，此类项目很少具有商业可行性。

Even though about 20 Chinese high-speed rail projects are officially under discussion around the world, only one in Turkey is operational outside China, Ms Kratz says.

克拉茨表示，虽然全球范围内正式讨论的中国高铁项目有20来个，但在中国之外只有一个在土耳其的项目已经投入运营。

It is not only the railways that have deviated from the original plan.

不仅仅是高铁项目偏离了最初规划。

As part of celebrations to mark the 67th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China at the end of last month, Venezuelan and Chinese government officials gathered with foreign diplomats at a reception in Caracas.

在上月底为庆祝中华人民共和国成立67周年而举办的活动中，中委两国官员及外交官出席了在加拉加斯举行的招待会。

When the time came for speeches, according to one of those present, the Chinese side talked of joint investments to build a better future.

据一位到过现场的人士透露，发表演讲时，中方谈到了共同投资建设更美好未来。

In response, the Venezuelan side waved socialist flags and called for the two nations to join together to smash global capitalism, one small example of how China and its beneficiaries have lost touch with one another.

作为回应，委内瑞拉方面挥舞社会主义旗帜，呼吁两国联手粉碎全球资本主义。从这件小事可以看出，中国与其受惠国之间脱节多么严重。