9月份中国人民币贷款增长超预期

China’s local-currency loans and broader liquidity grew more than expected last month but at rates nowhere close to the acceleration seen earlier this year.

上月，中国本币贷款和更广义流动性的增长超过预期，但增速远不及今年早些时候的水平。

New renminbi-denominated bank loans rose to Rmb1.22tn in September, up 16.2 per cent year on year after bouncing back from contraction to grow 17.1 per cent in August, according to new figures from the People’s Bank of China. That was also above a median estimate of Rmb1tn from economists.

中国央行最新数据显示，9月份新增人民币贷款升至1.22万亿元人民币，同比上升16.2%。这一数字要高于1万亿元人民币的经济学家预测值中位数。中国新增人民币贷款在8月份摆脱收缩趋势发生反弹，同比上升了17.1%。

A broad measure of the country’s money supply, M2, rose 11.5 per cent year on year last month, just shy of a median forecast of 11.6 per cent growth and marginally closer to a target of 13 per cent annual growth.

上月，中国广义货币(M2)同比增长11.5%，只比11.6%的预测值中位数略低一点，朝着13%的年增长目标又略微拉近了一些。

M1, a more narrow measurement of cash and shorter-term deposits, grew far more quickly at an annualised rate of 24.7 per cent year on year. Analysts said the discrepancies between M1 and M2 earlier in the year suggest companies still preferred to hold onto cash rather than invest.

狭义货币（M1，包括现金和较短期存款）的增长要快得多，同比增长了24.7%。分析师表示，今年早些时候M1与M2增速的背离表明，企业仍倾向于持有现金，而不是投资。

Still, Beijing’s favoured metric of total social financing, comprised of most major sources of financing, blew past a median forecast of Rmb1.39tn to reach Rmb1.72tn, up from Rmb1.47tn in August.

不过，北京方面最青睐的指标“社会融资规模”（由大多数主要融资构成）增长了1.72万亿元人民币，高于1.39万亿元人民币的预测值中位数，也高于8月份增长的1.47万亿元人民币。

Capital Economics China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard noted outstanding government bonds, whose share of credit is omitted from total social financing, were still growing rapidly at a pace of 57.9 per cent in September, pushing an augmented measure of the financing gauge to 16.7 per cent year on year growth, down slightly from 16.8 per cent in August.

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)中国经济学家朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)指出，9月份，政府债券（这部分信贷未计入社会融资规模）余额仍在快速增长，增速达57.9%，导致一项扩充后的社会融资规模指标同比增长了16.7%，略低于8月份16.8%的同比增速。

He added that “in coming months the economy may continue to propped up by earlier policy easing. However, a slower expansion in credit is likely to prove a major headwind to growth next year”.

他接着指出，“未来几个月里，中国经济或许仍会受到早先宽松政策的支撑。但明年，信贷扩张放缓很可能会对增长构成很大阻力”。