日本启动对GDP数据的更正

Japan has begun a revamp of its gross domestic product numbers because of rising concern about their accuracy, following a Bank of Japan report that suggests a huge understatement of growth in 2014.

由于越来越担心数据的准确性，日本启动了对其国内生产总值(GDP)数据的更正。此前，日本央行(BoJ)一份报告暗示日本2014年GDP增速被大大低估。

An official Cabinet Office study group met for the first time on Wednesday and separate groups in other ministries are examining the figures, amid fears that data problems could affect economic policymaking.

由于担心数据问题或影响经济政策制定，日本内阁一个官方研究组织周三举行了首次会晤，其他部门另外一些组织则在对数据开展审查。

The overhaul highlights growing issues with GDP data around the world because of declining response rates to official surveys.

这一全面审查凸显出，由于回应官方调查的比例下滑，全球在GDP数据上的问题越来越大。

Unreliable numbers leave central banks and finance ministries flying blind as they try to set economic policy.

不可靠的数据，令各国央行和财政部在制定经济政策时陷入盲目状态。

My feeling is the official data are getting worse and worse, said one Japanese policymaker who uses the GDP figures.

一位使用GDP数据的日本政策制定者表示：我感觉官方数据越来越糟糕了。

We have to rely more and more on qualitative data in order to assess the business cycle.

为了评估商业周期，我们只能越来越多地依赖定性数据。

According to an experimental index prepared by the BoJ, Japan’s economy expanded 2.4 per cent in 2014, rather than falling 0.9 per cent as the official data showed.

根据日本央行筹备中的一个实验性指标，2014年日本经济增长了2.4%，而不是如官方数据所说的下跌了0.9%。

The official figures suggest Japan’s economy was hit hard by rise in consumption tax that year to 8 per cent, prompting a drop into recession, which helped to damp both wage demands and corporate investment plans for the following year.

官方数据显示日本经济受到了该年度将消费税提升至8%的沉重打击，从而导致日本经济坠入衰退。在这一衰退助推下，下一年的薪资需求和企业的投资计划都受到了抑制。

But the alternative numbers suggest that recession never happened.

然而，新的数据却显示这一衰退从未发生过。

BoJ economists grew concerned because the official GDP figures showed that households had spent more than they saved and the operating surplus of companies had fallen.

此外，官方GDP数据显示日本家庭开支超过了存储，日本企业的结余已经下滑，这些情况令日本央行的经济学家越来越担心。

That clashed with other data suggesting more cash in consumer bank accounts, rising tax revenue and record corporate profits.

然而，上述状况却与其他数据发生了冲突，这些数据显示消费银行账号中的现金增多了、日本的税收也增加了、企业利润还创了纪录。

Using comprehensive data from tax returns, instead of the surveys underlying the official GDP numbers, BoJ economists calculated an independent figure for gross domestic income — adding up all the earnings in the economy, which should, in theory, be identical to GDP.

通过使用由税收得出的综合数据，而不是作为官方GDP数据来源的相关调查，日本央行的经济学家计算得出了一个独立的GDP指数——他们把日本经济体中的盈利累加起来，理论上应该会等于GDP的数额。

Those estimates suggest that not only did the economy grow but real output was significantly higher, at ￥556tn compared with ￥525tn in the official figures for 2014.

这些估计数值显示日本经济不仅增长了，而且实际产出大幅提高，达到556万亿日元，大大超过了525万亿日元的2014年日本官方数据。

There are several theories to explain the gulf in the figures.

对于这些数据的巨大差距有多种解释。

One is that young companies are not answering the official economic census, so those growing fastest are missed by the GDP numbers but covered when they file their tax returns.

其中一个解释是成立时间较短的公司没有答复官方的经济普查，导致GDP数据未能涵盖增长最快的企业，而他们报税时这些数据却被统计了进来。

Another possibility is that companies misreported their sales in 2014, using the old consumption tax rate of 5 per cent rather than the new figure of 8 per cent, biasing the numbers downwards for that year.

另一种可能性则是企业误报了2014年的销售额，它们使用的是5%的旧消费税税率而不是8%的新消费税税率，从而导致该年数据向下失真。