中国二季度GDP数据背后的多重信息

HONG KONG — China on Friday reported its second-quarter economic growth figures. The numbers are among the world’s most closely watched because the country has been a major driver of global economic growth. But data from China are notoriously questionable. This is what you should take away from Friday’s results.

香港——上周五，中国通报了二季度的经济增长数据。由于中国是全球经济增长的主要推动力，它们是全世界最受关注的数据之一。但众所周知，中国公布的数据比较可疑。以下是读者应该从周五公布的数据背后看到的信息。

China to World: Everything Is O.K.

中国昭告世界：一切正常

China’s second-quarter gross domestic product rose 6.7 percent compared with a year ago.

中国二季度国内生产总值同比增长6.7%。

Friday’s figure suggests there’s no reason to panic. China’s economy is slowing but at a reasonable, steady pace well in line with Beijing’s expectations. It also matches the first-quarter number, and still came in at a pace that other countries envy.

周五公布的数据显示没必要恐慌。中国的经济在放缓，但速度合理且平稳，与北京的预期完全相符。这个数字与一季度持平，仍是令其他国家忌妒的增长速度。

Of course, China’s headline G.D.P. figure is one of the country’s least-trusted economic indicators. Li Keqiang, currently China’s premier, once famously described the figure as “man-made.” Some economists argue that the real rate of expansion is substantially lower than the reported figure.

当然，中国大事宣扬的GDP数据是最不值得信任的经济指标之一。有名的事例是，现任总理李克强曾说GDP是“人造”数据。一些经济专家称，真实的增长速度远低于公布的数字。

Looking a bit closer, it’s clear that China’s slowdown is uneven. Some sectors, like mining and manufacturing, are being clobbered. Others, like e-commerce and nontraditional finance, are relative bright spots, while the housing market in some big cities is downright frothy.

稍微拉近距离观察，中国的放缓显然是不平衡的。一些领域遭受重创，如采矿和制造业。另一些行业，如电子商务和非传统金融，相对而言是亮点，而一些大城市的房地产市场则充满泡沫。

China’s Property Market Is Back — for Now

中国房地产市场复苏——暂时是这样

China’s property investment in the first six months of the year rose 6.1 percent from a year ago, compared with 7 percent in the January-to-May period.

中国上半年的房地产市场投资同比增加6.1%，而1至5月份的增速为7%。

That slight slowdown in June offers a reminder that new strength from China’s property sector has been pretty uneven.

6月的小幅回落是一个警告，表明在中国房地产市场重现的势头非常不均衡。

To be sure, the rebound in the property market is helping to prop up growth across the country. Roughly one-quarter of China’s economic activity is related to property. Last year a drop in the market hit China’s growth results, as investors worried about an oversupply of unsold homes, especially in smaller cities, and put their money into stocks instead.

房地产市场的复苏无疑正在帮助支撑全国的增长。中国大致四分之一的经济活动和房地产有关。去年，房地产市场的衰退打击了中国的增长数据，因为投资者担心未售房屋供大于求，特别是较小的城市，于是将资金投入股市。

Those worries appear to have been swept aside. Land purchases by developers have recovered as builders turn more optimistic. That is also good for local governments, which rely on revenue from land sales to fund a huge portion of their spending. New home sales and construction starts by developers are also rebounding strongly.

这些担忧似乎已一扫而空。随着建筑商变得更加乐观，开发商拿地热情恢复。这也有利于地方政府，它们的开支有相当一部分来自卖地的收入。新住宅销量和开发商的开工项目数量也强势反弹。

The question is how sustainable this property recovery might be. Home prices in rich metropolises like Shenzhen and Shanghai are rising at rates reminiscent of dot-com stocks of another era. If the property market becomes just another Chinese bubble, it may not help offset the sharp slowdown among China’s factories.

问题是，房地产市场复苏的可持续性怎么样。深圳和上海等富裕城市的房价上涨速度，让人想起了另一个时代的网络公司股票。如果房地产市场成为中国的另一个泡沫，那么它可能无助于抵消中国众多工厂的急剧放缓。

Factories Are Still Struggling

工厂依然举步维艰

China’s June industrial production rose 6.2 percent from a year earlier, compared with 6 percent in May.

中国6月的工业生产同比增长6.2%，比5月份加快0.2个百分点。

Many traditional smokestack industries in China are still struggling, and that is dragging down the broader economy. Despite the slight rise in the June figure, industrial production data indicates that the manufacturing deceleration that China has seen for the last six years shows few signs of bottoming out.

中国的很多传统重工业领域依然举步维艰，这正在拖累整体经济。尽管6月的数据出现了小幅上升，但工业生产数据表明，中国持续了六年的制造业减速仍看不到触底的迹象。

China’s zombie factories — many state owned or state supported — continue to churn out goods that nobody buys. Weak overseas demand is another problem, and exports have continued to contract this year.

中国的僵尸工厂——很多属于国有或获得了国家的支持——依然在大量生产无人购买的商品。海外需求疲软是另一个问题，今年出口依然在收缩。

There could be some light at the end of the tunnel. Factories would get a big lift if they could regain pricing power. Data on factory pricing shows that deflation appears to be easing at last after four tough years.

可能会有苦尽甘来的时候。如果能重获定价权，工厂可能会得到极大的提振。工厂定价数据表明，在苦熬了四年后，通货紧缩似乎终于开始减缓。

But the bigger hope is that consumer demand can replace traditional industry as the main driver of China’s economy.

但更大的希望是，消费需求能取代传统工业，成为中国经济的主要推动力。

Are Shoppers Taking a Break?

消费者正在休息吗？

China’s June retail sales rose 10.6 percent from a year ago.

6月，中国零售额同比增加10.6%。

At first glance, Chinese consumers do appear to be stepping up their game, as June’s figure was an improvement from May’s. But May’s figure was the weakest rate since the 2003 outbreak of SARS, once seasonal distortions like holidays are factored out.

乍一看，中国消费者的确表现得像是购买力在增加，因为6月的数据同5月的相比有所改善。但一旦排除了节假日等季节性扭曲因素，5月的数据是自2003年急性非典型性肺炎(SARS)爆发以来最低的。

China bulls often point to the blistering pace of expansion of e-commerce as one of the country’s brightest growth spots. Online sales of goods rose 27 percent in the first six months, data released Friday showed. Still, that is down sharply from their growth rate a year ago China bears would argue that online shopping platforms are just cannibalizing sales from traditional department stores.

看好中国的人往往会把电子商务扩张迅速作为中国最亮的增长点之一。周五公布的数据显示，上半年在线销售额增加27%。但这依然远低于一年前的增长速度。看空中国的人则认为，在线购物平台只是在蚕食传统百货商店的销售额。

State Spending to the Rescue

政府开支救场

Government investment in fixed assets rose 23.5 percent in the first six months, while growth in private investment slowed to 2.8 percent.

上半年，政府固定资产投资增加23.5%，民间投资增速降至2.8%。

China has seen a dramatic falloff in investment by the private sector, previously China’s biggest engine of investment growth. That could have been hugely destabilizing for employment, wages and the economy as a whole. But the government has stepped in with gusto, ramping up investment by the state.

曾是中国最大的投资增长引擎的民间投资急剧下滑。这本来会严重影响就业、工资和整体经济的稳定性。但政府大举介入，增加政府投资。

There are signs that Beijing is getting less bang for its buck, however, as new infrastructure works and other projects fail to generate the same economic returns that they did in years past. What’s more, this investment surge is being bankrolled by an expanding credit binge. New bank lending has been growing gangbusters this year, raising the risk that China will face a painful day of reckoning further down the road.

然而，多个迹象表明，因为新建的基础设施工程和其他项目不能产生过去几年那样的经济回报，北京正在收紧开支。此外，这种投资增长是受了一股愈演愈烈的信贷狂潮的推动。新增银行贷款今年急速增加，让人愈发担心中国在未来会因此受到痛苦的惩罚。