锌成为表现最佳金属 锌价涨至10个月高位

Zinc, which is used to galvanise steel, has emerged as the best-performing metal this year as supply cuts spur a recovery in sentiment.

锌成为今年表现最佳的金属，减产带动市场人气回升。这种金属被用来生产镀锌钢板。

Prices for the metal rose past $2,000 a tonne on Thursday, their highest level in almost 10 months. This defies a slump in commodities from copper to iron ore and nickel, which have continued to fall over the past month amid concerns about growth in China.

周四，锌价涨至每吨2000美元上方，这是近10个月来最高水平。这与其它大宗商品（从铜到铁矿石和镍）价格大跌形成反差；在市场担忧中国经济增长的背景下，过去一个月多数金属价格继续下跌。

The zinc market has benefited from action taken by mining company Glencore last year to cut production by a third, as well as the planned closures of two large zinc mines in Australia and Ireland.

锌市场得益于矿业公司嘉能可(Glencore)去年采取的减产三分之一的行动，以及澳大利亚和爱尔兰两个大型锌矿的关闭计划。

Production of refined zinc in China is set to drop by about 6 per cent this year to 5.65m tonnes, according to constulancy CRU.

据咨询公司CRU估计，中国今年的精炼锌产量将下降约6%，至565万吨。

A shortage of zinc concentrate, the raw material for making the metal, has also emerged in the country — the largest zinc consumer, according to analysts.

分析师们表示，作为最大的锌消费国，中国还出现了锌精矿（提炼锌金属的原材料）短缺。

“The Chinese market is certainly tightening now,” Graham Deller, an analyst at CRU, said. “Especially for the Chinese smelters who are relying on imported concentrate.”

“中国市场眼下肯定趋紧，”CRU分析师格雷厄姆•戴勒(Graham Deller)表示。“尤其是对于那些依赖进口锌精矿的中国冶炼厂来说。”

In spite of the price rise, traders and analysts remain wary about how much refined metal is sitting in warehouses not monitored by the major metal exchanges in China and London.

尽管价格上涨，但对于不受中国和伦敦主要金属交易所监测的仓库里有多少精炼锌，交易员和分析师仍持谨慎态度。

The amount of zinc in London Metal Exchange warehouses has fallen from some 500,000 tonnes in February to 378,725 tonnes. However, analysts caution that the drop may reflect metal moving to other locations, rather than being consumed.

伦敦金属交易所(LME)仓库中的锌已从2月的大约50万吨降至37.8725万吨。不过，分析师们告诫称，库存下降可能反映了部分锌被转移至其他地点，而未必是被消费了。

The premium for zinc in Shanghai, the extra cost traders add to the exchange price for immediate physical delivery of the metal, has continued to fall. That would suggest ample availability of metal for consumers at current prices.

在上海，锌的溢价（交易员为直接实物交割这种金属而添加至交易所价格的额外成本）持续下降。这似乎表明这种金属在目前价位对消费者供应充足。

“Anyone in a sensible location, they can pick up the metal and provided they are prepared to pay the spot premia for the metal — they can get extra tonnage put on a lorry by the end of the week,” according to CRU’s Deller.

“在合理地点的任何人都可以拿到这种金属——只要他们愿意支付这种金属的现货溢价，他们在本周结束前就可以把额外的货装上卡车，”CRU的戴勒介绍说。

The presence of that material will mean the market will remain well supplied with refined metal until next year, he said.

他表示，这种库存意味着，市场上精炼锌供应充足的局面将可维持到明年。

Goldman Sachs has been one of the most bullish on the outlook for zinc. Last month the bank said it was the metal most likely to benefit from any infrastructure growth in China. A quarter of its end use demand comes from infrastructure, it said.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)是对锌的前景最乐观的机构之一。该行上月表示，锌是最有可能受益于中国基础设施发展的金属，称其最终使用需求的四分之一来自基础设施建设。

The bank forecast a price of $2,100 a tonne for the next six months.

高盛预计，未来6个月锌价将达到每吨2100美元。