宣布油价跌势终结为时尚早 Too soon to declare the end of the oil downturn

The prospect of a partial freeze on oil production at current levels. Some upbeat numbers from China. A couple of days of rising prices on the market.

石油产量有望部分冻结在当前水平；中国出现一些积极数据；国际市场油价连续几天上涨。

These signals are enough, it seems, to make some traders excited and to produce headlines announcing the end of the downturn and a turning point in the global commodities cycle. The reality, however, is more complicated.

这些信号似乎足以让一些交易员兴奋，并催生新闻头条——宣布此轮跌势结束，全球大宗商品周期迎来拐点。然而，现实情况更加复杂。

Let’s focus on the oil market.

我们专注看一看石油市场。

The most important point is that things have stopped getting worse. Daft predictions that oil prices would fall to $20 or less have been proved wrong. The Saudis have finally accepted that their strategy of trying to force US tight oil producers and others out of the market has failed; the production freeze signifies a reluctant acceptance in Riyadh that to persist would do more harm to the kingdom and its allies than to anyone else.

最重要的一点是，情势已经停止恶化。油价将跌至每桶20美元或更低的可笑预测已经被证明是错误的。沙特最终承认，他们试图将美国致密油生产商及其他生产商挤出油市的策略已经失败；冻结产量意味着利雅得不得不接受这样的现实，即一意孤行对沙特及其盟友造成的损失比对任何其他国家造成的损失都大。

A freeze is better than nothing — but it is not sufficient to push prices up, and that is where the traders could be caught out. There are three reasons for taking this view.

冻结产量比什么都不做要好，但并不足以推动油价上涨，这正是会难住交易员们的地方。有三个原因支持这种观点。

In the past year there has seen a build-up of oil stocks across the world. Those stocks need to be run down before the market can rebalance. The process depends on the pace of demand growth. In the US, Europe and Japan, it is flat to negative. The International Monetary Fund has just adjusted downward most of its economic forecasts for both the OECD and the developing world for 2016. Chinese demand is certainly high; imports of 8m barrels a day were recorded in February but it is not clear how much of that represented buyers taking advantage of low prices to build reserves. Until there is a sustained surge in demand, the level of stocks will overhang the market. Everything else being equal, it could take two years or more to reach a new balance at recent growth rates.

过去一年，世界各地的石油库存都在不断增加。只有当这些库存被消化掉，市场供需才能重获平衡。这一进程取决于需求增长的速度。在美国、欧洲以及日本，需求并未增长、甚至出现负增长。国际货币基金组织(IMF)刚刚下调了对大多数经合组织(OECD)国家及发展中国家2016年的经济增长预测。中国的石油需求无疑仍处于高位；2月每天进口量为800万桶，但并不清楚其中多少属于买家在利用低油价建立储备。在需求出现持续激增前，库存问题将一直对市场形成压力。其他条件不变的情况下，按照当前的需求增速，可能需要两年或更长时间才能达到新平衡。

But oil markets are dynamic, and highly sensitive to changing circumstances.

但石油市场是动态的，而且对局势变化高度敏感。

A slightly higher price as a result of the freeze — say $45 or even $50 a barrel — will bring on more production; not least in the US, where 500,000 barrels a day has been shut in over the last year. The owners of that output, and the people who have lent them money, will be keen to see some revenue flowing.

作为冻结产量的结果，略微上涨的油价（比如每桶45美元、甚至50美元）将带来更多产量，尤其是在去年一年减产50万桶/天的美国。这部分产量的生产商以及他们的债权人将急于看到收入进账。

On top of that several other countries are itching to produce more — starting with Iran, which even without full removal of sanctions should be able to add 350,000 to 400,000 barrels a day to its exports this year. Numerous other countries, from Brazil and Venezuela to Iraq, would like to increase output in order to support their national economies. Don’t forget that a price of $45 a barrel is still 60 per cent below the level of two years ago. Many countries are finding it very hard to make the adjustment in their budgets to accommodate that fall. The odds on the freeze holding are very slim.

除此之外，其他几个国家（以伊朗为首）正渴望加大产量——即使制裁措施并未完全取消，伊朗今年的石油出口也应该能增加35万至40万桶/天。许多国家——从巴西、委内瑞拉到伊拉克——都希望提高产量，以支持本国经济。别忘了，每桶45美元的油价仍比两年前的水平低60%。许多国家都发现，很难对预算做出调整以适应此轮大跌。产量冻结能维持下去的可能性很渺茫。

The production freeze will tell us where the ceiling on oil prices lies. The cost savings achieved around the world have lowered the ceiling. Tight oil producers in the US were expected (not least by the Saudis) to go out of business when the prices fell below $80. Some now say they can break even at $50 and are hopeful of getting that threshold of profitability even lower. This sets a new cost base for the future. So do the savings achieved in mature areas such as the North Sea. The reality is that the potential for supply growth, even at prices of $45 or $50, is still higher than the likely growth in demand.

冻结产量将告诉我们油价的上限在哪里。世界各地实现的成本节约降低了这一天花板。有人（尤其是沙特）曾预计，当油价跌破80美元时，美国致密油生产商将会破产。如今，又有人称，他们能在油价50美元时保本，并有望将这个盈亏平衡点降得更低。这为未来设立了新的成本基准。北海(North Sea)等成熟油田区域实现的成本节约也起到了这一作用。现实情况是，供给增长的潜力——即便在45或50美元的价位——仍高于需求可能出现的增长。

There is only one conclusion to be drawn from all this.

所有这些只能得出一个结论。

If the oil producers want a substantially higher price — meaning $70 or $80 a barrel — they will have to cut production. The cut will have to be sharp and to last for quite a long time. When the Saudis accept this it will be safe to say that the downturn in the oil market is coming to an end. We are not there yet.

如果石油生产商希望油价出现大幅回升——达到每桶70或80美元——他们将不得不减产。减产幅度必须很大，且持续相当长一段时间。只有当沙特接受这一点时，我们才能断言，石油市场的跌势正在接近尾声。但现在仍不是时候。