台湾电子产业转型面临考验 Taiwan faces a testing transition

For many years, Taiwan has prospered as a vital link in the global supply chain. Its electronics companies, which account for 40 per cent of exports and 15 per cent of gross domestic product, have assembled phones, computers and other gadgets for successful western brands such as Apple.

台湾作为全球供应链中至关重要的一环，多年来蓬勃发展。台湾电子企业——占本岛出口的40%、GDP的15%——为苹果(Apple)等知名的西方品牌组装手机、电脑及其他电子设备。

More recently, they have done even better by expanding into China, both as a market and as a base for their factories — combining Taiwanese manufacturing efficiency with the mainland’s low labour costs.

近些年，通过向中国大陆扩张，将台湾制造业的效率与中国大陆的低劳动力成本相结合，台湾的电子企业发展得更好了。中国大陆既是它们产品的市场，也是它们的生产基地。

Now that model is unravelling. Chinese demand is slowing along with the economy and Beijing is rapidly building up a domestic electronics industry, turning itself from a customer into a competitor. While this is a threat to all of Asia’s regional economies, Taiwan is uniquely exposed because of its dependence on the technology sector and the closeness of its cross-straits ties.

但如今，这种模式正在瓦解。中国的需求正在同经济增速一道放缓，而且北京方面正在迅速打造自己的电子产业，将大陆由电子产品的消费地转变为这一行业中的竞争者。虽然这对亚洲所有区域经济体都造成了威胁，但台湾所受影响尤甚，因为台湾对科技业依赖度极高、与大陆的联系也极为紧密。

By contrast, Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea have more diversified economies that also produce cars, commodities, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The Koreans, in particular, have built up a number of internationally recognised corporate brands.

相比之下，新加坡、马来西亚和韩国都拥有更加多元化的经济。除了电子产品，这些国家还生产汽车、大宗商品、药品及消费品。尤其是韩国，已经打造了众多国际知名的企业品牌。

Taiwan is trying to respond. Tsai Ing-wen, its incoming president, has publicly declared a need to shift industry’s emphasis from efficiency to innovation.

台湾正在尝试作出应对。即将上任的台湾总统蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)已公开宣布，需要将台湾电子产业的专注点从效率转移到创新上来。

This is a laudable aim, but it is easier said than done because it requires very different skills, both among managers and workers. It also runs the risk of alienating existing customers, who do not want their Taiwanese suppliers to compete with them by developing their own finished products and brands.

虽然这是一个值得称道的目标，但说起来容易做起来难，因为这需要非常不同的技能——对管理人员和工人都是如此。同时，还要冒着失去现有客户的风险，后者不希望台湾供应商通过开发自己的成品和品牌与他们竞争。

The takeover of Japan’s Sharp by Hon Hai Precision Industry, best known as the parent of Foxconn, will be a litmus test.

富士康(Foxconn)母公司台湾鸿海精密(Hon Hai Precision Industry)对日本企业夏普(Sharp)的收购将成为一块试金石。（编者按：根据报道，鸿海精密已同意以3880亿日元——合34.6亿美元——收购夏普）

While the Taiwanese group sees this as an opportunity to gain advanced technology and go global, its big customers, led by Apple, might balk if Hon Hai tries to turn itself from component supplier to a producer of branded products in its own right.

这家台资集团将收购夏普视为获得先进技术并走向全球的契机，但如果鸿海试图从部件供应商转型为一家拥有自主品牌产品的生产商，以苹果为首的它的大客户可能会从中作梗。

Even if that does not happen, a transformation of Taiwan’s electronics industry will take time. Meanwhile, its ongoing weakness continues to hurt the economy.

即使没有发生这样的事情，台湾电子产业要实现转型也尚需时日。与此同时，电子产业的持续疲软将继续伤及台湾经济。

Exports fell 12 per cent year-on-year in January and a further 7 per cent in February and the government recently downgraded its 2016 GDP growth forecast from 2.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent on the premise that exports would continue to fall all year. Domestic demand too is relatively sluggish, not helped by a housing market slump.

今年1月台湾出口同比下降12%，2月又环比下滑19%。台湾政府最近将2016年GDP增速预测从2.3%下调至1.5%——假设全年出口将持续下滑的话。在住房市场衰退的影响下，岛内需求也相对不景气。

Policymakers are doing what they can. The government is planning to roll out plans to cultivate other export sectors, such as biomedical products and artificial intelligence, through preferential tax rates and deregulation. And the central bank is easing monetary policy while trying to keep the currency as competitive as possible.

政策制定者正在尽可能想办法。台湾政府准备推出计划，通过优惠税率和放松管制培育其他出口行业，如生物医药产品和人工智能。台湾央行正在放宽货币政策，同时尽可能保持新台币的竞争力。

After interest rate cuts of 12.5 basis points in both September and December 2015, the Central Bank of China, which only meets quarterly, cut again last week, taking the policy rate down to 1.5 per cent.

在2015年9月和12月分别降息12.5个基点后，每季度仅召开一次会议的台湾央行(Central Bank of China) 3月初再次降息，将再贴现率下调至1.5%。

According to Medley Global Advisors, a macro research service owned by the Financial Times, it will keep lowering rates at every meeting this year unless export orders stabilise. Inflation, expected to average just 0.7 per cent this year, is not a concern — unless oil prices suddenly rocket.

英国《金融时报》旗下宏观研究机构Medley Global Advisors预计，在今年余下的三次季度会议上，台湾央行每次都会宣布降息——除非出口订单企稳。预计今年平均下来将仅为0.7%的通胀水平并不令人担心——除非油价突然上窜。

Even a shock like that could be offset, at least partially, by steady intervention in the foreign exchange market, where the CBC is determined to keep the Taiwan dollar weak or, at a minimum, to see it strengthen more slowly than other local currencies and particularly the Korean won.

即使这样的冲击至少也可以通过对外汇市场持续的干预部分抵消掉，台湾央行已决心保持新台币的弱势，或者最起码要比其他亚洲货币（尤其是韩元）升值更慢。

So far, that is a fight it is winning, with the Taiwan dollar up around 3 per cent against its US namesake this month compared with a 7 per cent rise for the won.

到目前为止，台湾正在这方面取得胜利，新台币兑美元汇率本月上涨约3%，相比之下，韩元兑美元汇率上涨了7%。

But while the central bank can keep macroeconomic policy broadly accommodative, the heavy lifting will have to be done by Taiwanese business and the transition to a future of greater innovation and higher margins will be neither easy nor swift.

虽然台湾央行可以保持宏观经济政策总体宽松，但不得不挑起重担的将是台湾企业；要向更多创新、更高利润率的未来转型，这个过程既不会容易，也不会很快完成。