希拉里面临关键考验 Hillary Clinton's big complicated world

An odd thing happened at Donald Trump’s victory rally last week. Having evaded his bouncers, I made my way to the centre of the throng as it awaited The Donald’s arrival. The crowd erupted into boos when Hillary Clinton appeared on the television screen. You could hear a pin drop when Bernie Sanders popped up a few minutes later.

在唐纳德礠朗普(Donald Trump)最近的庆功会上发生了一件奇怪的事情。在避开特朗普的保镖后，我挤入了等待特朗普到来的人群中间。当希拉里克林顿(Hillary Clinton)出现在电视屏幕上时，人群中爆发出一片嘘声。而当几分钟后伯尼儠德斯(Bernie Sanders)出现时，四周静得落针可闻。

It was the respect shown by one anti-establishment wave to another. The contrast spoke volumes. They may come from opposite ends of the political spectrum but they are united in antipathy to Mrs Clinton.

这是一个反当权派阵营对另一个反当权派阵营展示的尊重。前后的对比充分说明了这点。他们或许来自政治图谱的两个相反的极端，但是他们在反感希拉里上是一致的。

It is not easy being Mrs Clinton. During the 1990s she was excoriated as a bra-burning feminist who wanted to socialise the US’s healthcare. Back then it was the establishment who detested her. Today, she is reviled by women and men alike for personifying the establishment. Moreover, her opponent, Mr Sanders, wants to socialise healthcare: Canada and the UK are the single-payer models he would emulate. Mrs Clinton, meanwhile, is disdained for not wanting to match him. Whatever she does, vilification is assured. As I said, it cannot be easy being Mrs Clinton.

希拉里不容易。在上世纪90年代，人们指责她为希望把美国医保制度社会主义化的激进女权主义者。那时，厌恶她的正是当权派。如今，她因为代表着当权派而受到攻击，攻击她的人既有男性，也有女性。此外，她的竞争对手桑德斯希望将医保制度社会主义化：加拿大和英国的单一给付制是他希望效仿的的模板。希拉里则因不认同他的提议而遭到蔑视。无论她做什么，必然会引来骂声一片。正如我所说的，希拉里的处境不容易。

It is about to become harder. In less than two weeks, Mrs Clinton must win the South Carolina primary. Unlike New Hampshire, which was always likely to “feel the Bern”, South Carolina is solid Clinton territory. It is the first state in her so-called southern firewall against Mr Sanders’s bandwagon. The latest polls give her a 30-point lead. If her margin of victory is below double digits, doubts about her electability will grow. If she wins decisively, last week will look like a blip. A breach in the firewall, on the other hand, could finish her. There is a lot riding on South Carolina.

希拉里的处境会愈发艰难。她必须赢得即将到来的南卡罗来纳州的初选。新罕布什尔州原本就是一直可能被桑德斯拿下的，南卡罗来纳州则毋庸置疑是希拉里的地盘。这是她对抗桑德斯阵营的所谓南部防火墙的第一个州。最新的民调显示，希拉里在南卡领先30个百分点。如果她在南卡胜出的领先幅度低于两位数，人们对于她能否拿到总统候选人资格就将愈发怀疑。如果她在南卡取得了压倒性胜利，最近的结果看起来就会像是暂时的失利（编者注：希拉里在内华达州民主党党团会议的投票中以52%对48%险胜桑德斯）。另一方面，假如南卡失守，她的竞选之路就可能走到尽头。南卡一役有很多看头。

To seal the deal, Mrs Clinton must perform Houdini-like feats. She must find a way of beating Mr Sanders without going negative. That is the biggest lesson from her New Hampshire defeat. More than nine out of 10 rated Mr Sanders as more honest and trustworthy than Mrs Clinton — and they were just the Democratic voters. Second, she needs to bring Mr Sanders down without sounding like a Republican. His plans would push US federal spending up to European levels. Puncturing his dreams without alienating liberals will be a challenge. Third, she must stick to her Obama-third-term script while letting voters know she shares their anger. It is not easy to promise continuity while raging against the status quo.

要漂漂亮亮地打赢这一仗，希拉里必须表现出如魔术大师胡迪尼(Houdini)一般的精湛技艺。她必须找到一种能够光明正大地打败桑德斯的方式）。这是她在新罕布什尔的败选带来的最重要的教训。超过十分之九的选民认为桑德斯比希拉里更诚实正直、更值得信任——而这还只是民主党的选民。第二点，她需要既打败桑德斯、又避免听起来像一个共和党人。桑德斯的计划会把美国的联邦支出推高至欧洲水平。戳破他的幻梦，而又不失去自由主义者的支持，将是一项挑战。第三点，她必须在坚持“奥巴马第三任期”打算的同时，让选民知道她能够感受到他们的愤怒。一方面承诺将保持政策连续性，另一方面斥责现状，这不容易做到。

The upside is that figuring out how to defeat Mr Sanders would be good practice for confronting Mr Trump in a presidential election. The two have more in common than their anti-establishment support base. Both have a habit of promising the moon. Mr Sanders would convert the US into a Scandinavian social democracy. Mr Trump would make America great again. Both are arch-fantasists with an ability to recruit voters and appeal to independents. That is where the similarities end. Mr Sanders is a civil opponent. He has refrained from personal attacks on Mrs Clinton’s character. The Donald, on the other hand, knows no boundaries. “If she can’t satisfy Bill Clinton,” he said, “how can she satisfy America?”

好处在于，搞清楚如何打败桑德斯将会成为一次很好的练习，有利于希拉里在总统竞选中对抗特朗普。特朗普与桑德斯的共同点不止是两人的主要支持者都反对当权派，两人还都喜欢开空头支票：桑德斯想把美国变成一个斯堪的纳维亚式社会民主国家；特朗普想让美国再次成为一个伟大的国家。两人都有着天马行空的幻想，拥有鼓动人心、吸引独立选民的能力。他们还有一点最大的区别。桑德斯是文明的对手。他始终克制自己不侮辱希拉里的人格。特朗普则没有底线。“如果她无法满足比尔克林顿(Bill Clinton)，”他称，“她如何能满足美国？”

How indeed? The key is in reminding voters that level-headedness is a virtue. They are also choosing America’s next commander-in-chief. Mr Sanders’s foreign policy boils down to one promise — he won’t start any wars. The rest is a replay of his 1960s student radicalism. In the latest Democratic debate, Mr Sanders’s grasp of the world stopped at roughly the midpoint of the cold war. He attacked the US’s overthrow of Iran’s Mossadeq government in 1953. He railed against Henry Kissinger’s secret bombing of Cambodia in the early 1970s. He also stood foursquare behind Franklin Roosevelt’s plea for the US to avoid acting out of fear.

这倒真是个问题。关键在于，要提醒选民，头脑冷静是一种美德。选总统也是在选美国的下一任总司令。桑德斯的外交政策可以归结为一个承诺——他不会发动任何战争。其他部分则是重申他在上世纪60年代的学生激进主义。在最近一场民主党辩论中，桑德斯对世界的理解几乎还停留在冷战中点。他抨击了美国1953年推翻伊朗莫萨德克(Mossadeq)政府的举动。他痛斥了亨利 格(Henry Kissinger)上世纪70年代初秘密轰炸柬埔寨的行为。他还坚定不移地支持富兰克林圠斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)恳求美国避免因恐惧而采取行动的立场。

He was right on every point. But his grasp of the US’s present-day challenges is considerably weaker. When asked to name a foreign policy adviser, Mr Sanders mentioned Lawrence Korb at the Center for American Progress. Mr Korb has met Mr Sanders once for a short briefing. Mr Sanders’s plan to defeat Isis is to persuade “the Muslim countries” to form a coalition. This would involve a highly improbable alliance between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In reality, they would be likelier to turn their guns on each other. “It is a big, complicated world out there,” Mrs Clinton reminded him in last week’s debate.

他说的都没错。但是对今日美国面临的挑战，他的理解则薄弱得多。当被要求说出一位外交政策顾问时，桑德斯提到了美国进步中心(Center for American Progress)的劳伦斯科布(Lawrence Korb)。科布见过桑德斯一次，为他做了短暂的简报。桑德斯挫败“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的计划是说服“穆斯林国家”组成联盟。这意味着伊朗和沙特阿拉伯结盟——事实上是极为不可能的。在现实世界中，两国更可能刀兵相见。“那是一个庞大而复杂的世界，”希拉里在最近的辩论中提醒他道。

At 74, it seems a little late for Mr Sanders to catch up on his homework. Mr Trump, on the other hand, gladly ad to having no advisers. According to him, the US is being screwed by its allies and beaten by its adversaries. As a world class dealmaker, he will put both those issues right. If he needs experts he will hire them. Meanwhile he will “bomb the shit” out of Isis. That is about it.

桑德斯已经74岁了，对他来说现在再去赶功课似乎有点晚了。特朗普则欣然承认他没有顾问。在他看来，美国如今被盟友坑惨了，还遭受着敌人的痛击。作为一个一流的交易撮合者，他会把两个问题统统摆平。如果他需要专家的话，他会聘请他们。与此同时，他会把ISIS“炸出翔”。这差不多就是他的计划了。

Mrs Clinton’s immediate fate will be determined by issues closer to home. Can she bring out the African-American vote in South Carolina? Will women return to the fold? The big picture matters to them too. Whatever your view of her, no rival has anything close to Mrs Clinton’s foreign policy experience. Mr Sanders and Mr Trump insist judgment is what matters. So here is a test of Mrs Clinton’s political skills: can she convince voters her opponents lack judgment? There is a big curious world out there waiting to find out.

希拉里目前的命运将由跟美国自身更息息相关的问题决定。她能争取到南卡罗来纳的非裔美国人为她投票吗？女性选民会回头支持她吗？大局也关系到她们。无论你怎么看待希拉里，希拉里在外交政策上的经验无人能够企及。桑德斯和特朗普坚持认为判断力才是最重要的。那么现在就是考验希拉里政治技巧的时候了：她能向选民证明她的竞争对手们判断力不佳吗？整个世界都在好奇地等待答案揭晓。