好运的希拉里 Hillary Clinton's looming presidency

Here is a very modest test of your imagination. It is December and Hillary Clinton is the president-elect. Not only did she beat Donald Trump but the Democrats retook the Senate and cut the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. The US is gearing up for a third Clinton White House — or is it a third Obama term? Moreover, she will start on very low expectations. Whatever she can squeeze out of a horribly poisoned environment will be a bonus.

以下对你的想象力进行一次非常温和的测试。现在是12月，希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)是美国当选总统。她不仅击败唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)，而且民主党人重新掌控参议院，并削弱了共和党在众议院的多数席位。美国将迎来克林顿夫妇第三次入主白宫——或者是奥巴马的第三个任期？此外，希拉里将从外界非常低的预期起步。她从已被毒化的可怕环境无论争取到何种成果，都将是意外收获。

True, her dignity is in tatters. Mr Trump made sure of that in what was the most vicious general election ever. His supporters will remain undyingly hostile. But in today’s climate it is about as good as you get. Mrs Clinton has been handed a bunch of lemons. Her job is to make lemonade.

没错，她的尊严已荡然无存。特朗普在史上最激烈的总统大选中确保了这一点。他的支持者们仍将对希拉里充满敌意。但在如今的氛围下，你能得到的也就是这么多。希拉里被递给一堆柠檬。她的任务是制作柠檬水。

Too much of a stretch? It should not be. Bernie Sanders’ emphatic caucus victories in Washington state, Alaska and Hawaii on Saturday night are a reminder that Mrs Clinton remains distrusted by much of her party’s base. But she is still firmly on course for the Democratic nomination. Moreover, most senior Republicans have all but written off the next White House. Their goal in 2016 is damage limitation. If Mr Trump wins a majority of delegates, they will have to hold their noses and live with him. But most would prefer to be defeated with Ted Cruz on the ticket.

这有些异想天开？应该不是。伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)上周六晚间在华盛顿州、阿拉斯加和夏威夷的初选中大获全胜提醒人们，希拉里依然不被党内许多基层选民信任。但她仍在大踏步走向获得民主党总统候选人的提名。与此同时，大多数的共和党大佬几乎放弃了该党今年问鼎白宫的希望。他们在2016年的目标是“损害限制”。如果特朗普获得多数选举人票，他们将不得不捏着鼻子认了。但大多数人将宁愿让特德•克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)作为共和党总统候选人输掉大选。

To say there is no love lost between Mr Cruz and his colleagues is an understatement . But that is not the point. Either Mr Trump or Mr Cruz would go down to Mrs Clinton in November. Only Mr Cruz would keep the Republican Party intact. Furthermore, unlike Mr Trump, Mr Cruz is a conventional, if extreme, ideologue. His defeat would dispel the myth that Republicans keep losing because they fail to choose true conservatives. The scene would be set for someone like Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, to recapture the White House in 2020.

说克鲁兹和党内同僚彼此间没有好感是客气话。但问题不在这里。无论是特朗普还是克鲁兹都会在今年11月败给希拉里。但只有克鲁兹会让共和党全身而退。此外，与特朗普不同，克鲁兹是一个常规（即使有些极端）的理论家。他的落败将打破这样一种神话，即共和党人屡战屡败是因为他们未能推选出真正的保守派候选人。这将为众议院议长保罗•瑞安(Paul Ryan)或其他人在2020年问鼎白宫搭起舞台。

In reality, however, this is likelier to be a contest between Mrs Clinton and Mr Trump. What a fight it will be. For opposition researchers — the “oppos” whose living it is to dig up whatever dirt they can find — a Clinton-Trump ticket is an election made in heaven. Never before in US politics have two such well-documented figures come face to face.

然而，在现实中，更有可能的情况是希拉里和特朗普展开对决。这将是一场异常激烈的角力。对选举对手研究员来说——他们的生计是尽可能挖掘对手的污点——希拉里对阵特朗普是一场天作选举。美国政治从未有过两个如此长期备受瞩目的人物展开竞争。

Mr Trump has been a household name in New York since the late 1970s when he began to play the local tabloids. Mrs Clinton has been a national figure since 1992, when she first came to attention as the Arkansas governor’s ambitious wife. The “vast rightwing conspiracy” against Mrs Clinton has been up and running for more than two decades. The string of Trumpian nightclub photo-ops goes back four decades. Mr Trump would be the first nominee whose spouse, Melania, has posed nude in a magazine. That would be a first for a prospective First Lady. Mrs Clinton would be the first nominee whose husband has had sexual encounters in the Oval Office. Could you invent this?

自上世纪70年代开始运营当地小报以来，特朗普在纽约一直是家喻户晓的人物。自1992年作为阿肯色州州长雄心勃勃的妻子首次引起注意以来，希拉里就一直是全国知名人士。针对希拉里的“庞大右翼阴谋”持续了20多年。特朗普出入夜总会提供了40年的摄影机会。特朗普将是首位配偶梅拉尼娅(Melania)裸体照片曾登上一家杂志的提名候选人。那将是潜在第一夫人中的首例。而希拉里将是首名丈夫曾在椭圆办公室出轨的提名候选人。你能编造出这些八卦吗？

In truth, Mrs Clinton will be blessed in her opponent. In any other situation, she would have entered the 2016 election as an odds-even prospect at best. With Mr Trump, she is the overwhelming favourite. Fifty-six per cent of Americans disapprove of Mrs Clinton — and an even larger share distrust her. No one has ever made it to the White House with negative trust numbers. But luck is on her side. Among a field of candidates with higher ratings than Mrs Clinton, Republicans have singled out the only one whose numbers are far worse. Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Mr Trump. Moreover, women disapprove of him by far larger margins. Since women vote in higher numbers than men (even angry white men), this ought to doom Mr Trump’s chances.

事实上，希拉里将会因竞争对手而受惠。在其他任何情况下，她进入2016年大选时的胜算充其量只有一半。在与特朗普对决的情况下，她将是占有压倒性优势的热门人选。56%的美国人不支持希拉里，而不信任她的人数比例甚至更高。从未有人在不信任比例超过一半的情况下问鼎白宫。但是运气惠顾她这一边。共和党本来有多名支持率超过希拉里的候选人，该党却偏偏让唯一一位支持率糟糕得多的候选人脱颖而出。三分之二的美国人不支持特朗普。此外，不支持特朗普的女性比例要高得多。由于女性投票比例高于男性（甚至愤怒的白人男性），这应该会葬送特朗普的机会。

Could these numbers be wrong? Of course. It is human beings who vote in elections, not pieces of data. But primary voters are more volatile — and extreme — than general electorates. A pollster’s chances of mis-forecasting the Iowa caucus, for example, are far higher than miscuing in the general.

这些数据可能错误吗？当然有可能。毕竟，在选举中投票的是人、而不是数据。但初选选民比大选选民更为反复无常和极端。例如，民意调查员错误预测爱荷华州党团会议的几率远高于整体误判。

For Mrs Clinton, the most critical number is Mr Obama’s approval rating. This has been creeping up steadily for the past few months and now hovers at around 50 per cent. If it stays there, Mrs Clinton is set fair. It will dictate that she ensures there will be no crack of daylight between her and the sitting president before November 8. There are many areas, most notably foreign policy, where Mrs Clinton differs with Mr Obama . She has a more activist vision of US diplomacy and would have fewer qualms about asserting military power in Syria and elsewhere. She has said she does not want her grandchildren to grow up in a China-dominated world.

对希拉里来说，最关键的数据是奥巴马的支持率。在过去几个月里奥巴马的支持率一直稳步攀升，现在徘徊在50%左右。如果继续保持这个支持率，希拉里就赢定了。这将需要希拉里确保在11月8日前和现任总统不会公开分歧。希拉里在许多领域（尤其是外交政策）与奥巴马存在分歧。她认为美国外交应更有作为，而且不太担心在叙利亚和其他地方动用武力。她已经说过，不希望自己的孙辈在中国主导的世界长大。

But all that can wait until January. Mr Obama is itching to campaign on Mrs Clinton’s behalf — and she will need his help to bring out the African Americans, the Hispanics, the young and the progressives. As I say, it will be a vicious battle that will bring little credit to democracy. Mrs Clinton still lacks a coherent message and most Americans distrust her. A large minority hates her. Mr Trump will channel that raw sentiment. Long after he has been defeated — and the spectre of a Trump administration dispelled — his army of supporters will live on. That genie is out of the bottle. Mrs Clinton will finally have achieved her ambition. But the age of extreme incivility will be only just beginning.

但这一切可以等到明年1月再说。奥巴马渴望代表希拉里展开竞选——而后者将需要奥巴马的帮助来吸引非裔美国人、拉美裔美国人、年轻人和进步人士。正如我前面所说的，这将是一场很难为民主体制增色的激烈竞争。希拉里仍缺乏连贯的政见，大多数美国人不信任她。还有一个为数不少的少数群体憎恨她。特朗普将利用那种原始情绪。在他被击败——以及“特朗普政府”的魅影消散——之后很久，他的支持者阵营仍将存在。魔鬼已经逃出了瓶子。希拉里最终将实现其野心。但极端不文明的时代将只是刚刚拉开帷幕。