复星放弃收购疑有隐衷 Fosun seller beware

The directive to know your counter-party can be hard to fulfil in China. As the government’s anti-corruption purge has spread into the private sector, even standardbearers for Chinese industry and finance are no longer in the clear. The ripples may be affecting their ability to do business.

了解交易对手方的指令在中国可能难以执行。中国政府的反腐败斗争已波及私营部门，连中国工业和金融界的头面人物也难幸免。由此掀起的波澜可能会影响他们做生意的能力。

Yesterday Fosun International, the Chinese investment conglomerate, said it would no longer buy Phoenix, the Israeli insurance company. The deal, at $462m, was not large by Fosun’s standards — the company spent more than $30bn in 2014 and 2015 to purchase Club Med, the French tour operator, and Cirque du Soleil, the Canadian entertainment group. With net debt of $9bn and net debt to equity of 63 per cent, the sum to be paid for Phoenix was manageable.

中国企业集团复星国际(Fosun International)近日表示，将终止收购以色列保险公司Phoenix。这笔价值4.62亿美元的交易按复星的标准规模并不算大——该公司在2014年和2015年斥资逾300亿美元收购了法国旅游运营商地中海集团(Club Med)和加拿大娱乐集团太阳剧团(Cirque du Soleil)。对于净负债90亿美元、净债务与股本之比为63%的复星，购买Phoenix的支出还是可控的。

The cancellation is significant for other reasons, though. It is the second time Fosun has stepped away from a deal in three months — and in its targeted financial sector. In December, Fosun withdrew from the battle to buy Kleinwort Benson, the merchant bank. Last month, it sold its 29 per cent stake in the bank to Oddo. To be fair, Fosun may not have wished to compete against a bid that was 10 per cent higher, and it made a profit on the sale of its stake. Yet for a company that models itself on the acquisitive style of Warren Buffett, the axing of deals sits awkwardly. And competition did not deter Fosun from buying Club Med — to win that battle, Fosun paid 45 per cent more than its initial offer price.

但是，此次放弃收购因为其它原因不寻常。这是3个月来复星第二次在收购交易中半途而废——而且都在它有意收购的金融领域。去年12月，复星撤出了对商人银行克莱沃特-本森(Kleinwort Benson)的竞购战。上月，它将该行29%的股份卖给了法国的奥多(Oddo)。客观来讲，复星有可能不想与高出10%的出价展开竞争，而且出售所持股份还赚了一笔。然而，对于一家效仿沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)收购风格的公司来说，退出这些交易显得很不自然。何况，竞争并没有让复星放弃收购地中海集团——为了赢得那场胜利，复星比最初报价多付了45%。

Market conditions are different; Fosun stipulates that global turmoil was a factor behind the decision to step back from Phoenix. Still, one might think that Mr Buffett’s mantra to “be greedy when others are fearful” might lend more courage to a true disciple of the Sage of Omaha.

市场条件有所不同；复星称，全球动荡是其放弃收购Phoenix的原因之一。然而，人们也许会认为，巴菲特那句“在别人害怕时要贪婪”的箴言，应该会给“奥马哈先知”的真正弟子带来更多勇气吧。

More informative may be Israeli press reports suggesting that the regulator there did not want the deal to go through. There could be numerous reasons for this, but the most obvious is uncertainty. Last DecemberGuo Guangchang, Fosun chairman, was detained, purportedly to help judicial authorities with their “investigations”. In China, this can mean he was under suspicion himself. Although Mr Guo was subsequently released and permitted to travel overseas, the episode remains shrouded in mystery. Unless the truth can be known, Fosun’s ambition may be curtailed.

更具信息量的说法，可能是以色列媒体报道中所暗示的：该国监管机构不愿放行这笔交易。这可能有很多原因，但最明显的原因是不确定性。去年12月，复星董事长郭广昌曾经失联，据称是为了协助司法机关“调查”。在中国，这也可能意味着他自己也是嫌疑人。虽然后来郭被释放，还获准出国，但那件事的具体情节仍笼罩在神秘之中。除非让世人了解真相，否则复星的雄心可能难以实现。