中国债市泛起泡沫 China's speculative caravan has moved on to corporate bonds

It is tempting to believe that investors in the Chinese markets might have learnt a few lessons from the huge correction in the stock market this summer. Some have but many more seemingly have not.

人们倾向于认为，中国市场的投资者或许已从今夏股市的大回调中吸取了一些教训。有些人是吸取了教训，但更多人似乎并没有。

The stock market is up 17.7 per cent from its trough in August. Responsible fund managers such as those at China Asset Management recommend clients look at solid blue-chips and companies that pay high dividends, rather than the most speculative plays and high-flying growth counters, giving rise to the hope that the equity market might be more stable in coming months. But earnings continue to deteriorate for a big part of “old China”.

中国股市已较8月低点上涨了17.7%。负责任的基金经理——比如华夏基金管理公司(China Asset Management Co)的经理们——建议客户关注稳健的蓝筹股以及分红大方的公司，避开极具投机性的操作和价格高涨的成长股。这让人产生了未来几个月股市会更加稳定的希望。但是，在很多传统行业，公司盈利继续恶化。

Third-quarter results of almost 1,400 A-share companies listed before 2009 show non-financial sector earnings plunging 37 per cent compared with the same period a year ago in the worst showing since 2010, Credit Suisse notes. That suggests that if the sell-down was overdone, the subsequent recovery may also be overdone.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)指出，2009年前上市的近1400家A股企业的第三季度业绩显示，非金融行业盈利较去年同期大减37%，为2010年以来最差的季度业绩。这表明，如果说之前的大跌过了头，那么后来的反弹或许也过头了。

Meanwhile the speculative caravan has moved on to the corporate bond market, as once again investors take comfort from their belief that there is a financial equivalent of the “iron rice bowl” for them from the government and regulators. Beijing has relaxed the rules on issuance in the corporate bond market in a recent move many believe was meant to offset the funding squeeze in the stock market. At the same time, the debt market can help compensate for the reluctance of banks to lend to clients whose cash flows have fallen with the slowdown in the economy.

与此同时，投机“大篷车”已紧接着开到了公司债市场。投资者再度为以下想法感到心安：政府和监管机构为他们提供了堪比“铁饭碗”的保障。近来，北京方面放宽了公司债发行规则，许多人认为此举意在抵消股票市场的资金紧张局面。另一方面，对于银行不愿向因经济放缓而现金流减少的客户放贷，债券市场可以起到弥补作用。

It follows, therefore, that any froth in the debt capital market has the government’s blessing, investors believe. This is despite the fact that the official endorsement last spring of the surge in the stock market, meant to facilitate a debt to equity swap for the overly indebted, ended badly.

于是投资者也就认为，债务资本市场出现任何泡沫都有政府的支持。不过，今年春天官方对股市大涨的背书——意在帮助那些负债过高的企业把债务转化为股权——是以失败收场的。

So as China looks set to embark on its own quantitative easing, and the central bank moves to cut interest rates more aggressively, investors are being driven by the same quest for yield as their counterparts elsewhere in the world of virtually zero rates. There were five interest rate cuts in 2015, of which three were after the stock market began turning down in June.

所以，当中国看来将要启动自己的量化宽松、中国央行更加猛烈地降息时，中国投资者也就跟世界其他接近零利率的地区的投资者一样，被追逐收益率的心理所驱使。2015年，中国央行降息5次，其中3次发生在6月股市开始掉头向下之后。

In the past cash-strapped companies went offshore to borrow because the rates were far more attractive. Today yields in Hong Kong are about 10 per cent compared with 4 per cent onshore. Other hybrid instruments display the same pattern. The preferred shares of the domestic banks returned 7 per cent six months ago; today the yield has come down to 4.5 per cent, says China Asset Management.

过去，资金紧张的公司会到境外举债，因为境外利率的吸引力要大得多。如今，香港债券收益率大约为10%，内地则为4%。其他混合工具的情况也相似。华夏基金表示，6个月前，国内银行优先股的股息率为7%，现在已降到了4.5%。

And as has been the case elsewhere, the use of leverage is rising. Banks will let clients in Shanghai leverage the capital they put into the market by up to four or five times, analysts say.

此外，正如其他领域一样，杠杆的使用在增加。分析师表示，银行会允许上海客户将他们投入市场的资金进行4至5倍比例的配资。