降息能否推高中国股市 How have Chinese investors responded to rate cuts
Should China's investors be expected to cheer an interest rate cut or not?
降息会不会引来中国投资者的欢呼？Going by popular belief, a stock market rally is the norm. But going by an analysis of the People's Bank of China's previous easing efforts, it's about 50-50, writes Peter Wells. (But those are pretty much the odds as to whether Chinese shares will be up or down on any day, aren't they.)
按照流行的观点，降息通常会带来股市上涨。然而，对中国央行此前几次宽松举措的分析显示，股市上涨和下跌的可能性大约各占一半。（不过，中国股市任意一天上涨和下跌的可能性不也是各占一半吗？）
Something that is a little clearer, though, is that the PBoC's rate cuts in this cycle have generally been cheered by investors. The interest rate cut at the weekend to a record low 4.85 per cent is the sixth since easing cycle began in July 2012. In the sessions that have followed those rate cuts, the Shanghai Composite has risen four times out of five, and the average performance is a 1.2 per cent gain (see table).
但是，更明确一些的事实是，在这轮周期中，中国央行的降息举措一般都受到了投资者的欢迎。上周末，中国央行将贷款基准利率降至4.85%的创纪录低点，此次降息是2012年7月开始的这轮宽松周期以来的第六次。在前五次降息后的交易日，上证综指上涨了四次，平均上涨幅度是1.2%（见图表）。
Winding things back to the financial crisis, interest rate cuts weren't much of a cause for celebration. That said, interest rate cuts by any country during the financial crisis didn't necessarily draw positive reactions from investors, and instead had an air of panic about them.
让时光倒流至金融危机期间，当时，降息并未引来投资者的欢呼。不过，在金融危机期间，任何国家的降息举措都不一定会引起投资者的积极反应，相反会营造一种恐慌的氛围。Accordingly, the average reaction to all cuts since 2000 has been a 0.25 per cent drop. Up until today, the Shanghai Composite has risen in six occasions following a rate cut, and fallen in six.
相应的，2000年以来所有降息举措后的行情平均而言是下跌0.25%。直到今天，上证综指在降息举措后六次上涨、六次下跌。Granted, often the share market can run ahead of the news. One reason Chinese shares have rallied this year is on expectations of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. As those announcements become official, there can be a bit of the old "buy the rumour, sell the fact".
当然，股市行情往往领先于消息。今年中国股市上涨的原因之一，是对货币宽松和财政刺激举措的预期。当种种说法被官方确认时，情况就有点像那句老话：“传言出现时买进，传言证实后卖出”。The PBoC has previously cut rates in this cycle on weaker economic data, but this weekend's episode is more about market confidence.
这轮周期中，中国央行此前降息的动机都源自较疲软的经济数据。然而，上周末的降息动机，更多地是出自提振市场信心的需要。Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect the cuts to "temporarily halt a possible crash in the market", as if the government did not take action, margin calls would force leveraged positions to be unwound, causing capitulation. But this could all be a band-aid. The bank continued:“Short term bounce aside, we doubt that the latest cuts will trigger any sustained rally. As Chart 1 shows, this is the the 4th round of major PBoC actions to support the market since Nov 2014 (Feb/Mar & Apr/May being the other two) & each subsequent round's impact had diminished. By now, very few investors harbour any doubt about the government's desire to see the market up. But recent inflows into the market had proven insufficient to offset outflows & push the market higher.”
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)分析师预计，此次降息会“暂时遏止可能出现的市场崩盘”，因为如果政府不采取措施，追加保证金的通知就会迫使杠杆头寸平仓，引发抛售。不过，这些可能都只是权宜之计。该行接着说：“除了短期反弹以外，我们不认为这次降息会引发任何持续的反弹，如图表所示，这是2014年11月以来中国央行第四次大举托市。到目前为止，很少有投资者怀疑中国政府希望看到牛市。不过，事实证明，最近流入股市的资金不足以抵消资金外流，也不足以推高股市。”
