中国央行预测中国经济明年增长6.8%
China’s central bank has forecast the country’s economy to grow by 6.8 per cent next year, as the effect of stimulus measures and fiscal reforms offsets the mounting problems of debt and overcapacity, according to a working paper released late on Wednesday.
中国央行周三晚发布的一篇工作论文称，随着刺激措施和财政改革的效应抵消了日益严重的债务和产能过剩问题的影响，预计2016年中国经济增速为6.8%。
The optimistic forecast, comes despite wide scepticism of China’s official growth domestic product numbers as indicators such as power consumption and coal consumption imply a much weaker economic performance.
中国官方的国内生产总值(GDP)数字受到广泛质疑，因为用电量和煤炭消费量等指标揭示出中国经济的实际表现要疲弱得多。尽管如此，中国央行还是作出了这一乐观预测。
The size of China’s economy means deceleration of growth is to be expected. But economists worry that China is suffering a hangover from a massive state-backed and debt-fuelled stimulus that accelerated growth in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008.
中国经济的体量意味着，增长放缓是意料当中的事。但经济学家担心，中国正在承受由政府支持和由债务驱动的大规模刺激带来的后遗症。这些刺激措施在2008年全球金融危机后曾推动中国经济加速增长。
“China’s pro-growth measures will start to show a stronger effect in the fourth quarter of 2015 or the first half of 2016,” the paper said, noting that the Peoples Bank of China’s models show fiscal and monetary policies feeding through to the real economy after five to nine months.
这篇论文写道：“今年前三季度启动的一系列稳增长宏观调控措施应该在今年4季度至明年上半年开始显现出更为积极的效果。”论文提到，根据中国央行的模型测算，财政政策和货币政策的变化在5-9个月之后将显现出对实体经济的最大效果。
However, the central bank said industrial overcapacity and rising non-performing loans would drag on the economy.
不过，中国央行表示，工业产能过剩和不断增多的不良贷款会拖累经济。
Many economists doubt China’s slowdown will be as gradual as the PBoC’s projections suggest.
许多经济学家怀疑，中国的放缓不会像中国央行预测所暗示的那样是逐步的。
“That growth forecast looks pretty high to us,” said Andrew Batson, economist at Gavekal Dragonomics in Beijing. “ I think even 6.5 per cent would be a stretch, frankly.”
龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)驻北京经济学家白安儒(Andrew Batson)说：“在我们看来，这个增长预测值相当的高。坦白地讲，我觉得连6.5%都难以达到。”
Financial services and home sales were both stronger in the first half of the year when the stock market boomed. It has suffered a series of crashes since May.
今年上半年，中国金融服务业和房屋销售都表现得更为强劲，中国股市也很兴旺。自5月以来，中国股市已出现一连串暴跌。
Chinese policymakers are increasingly talking about “supply-side reform” — meaning, principally, the reorganisation of the bloated and lossmaking state sector to help reduce overcapacity and improve returns. China has recorded 44 months of unbroken declines in its producer price index, thanks to falling commodity and energy prices and the effect of overcapacity on industry profits.
中国政策制定者正在更多地谈论“供给侧改革”，它主要指的是将臃肿、亏损的国企进行重组，以帮助缓解产能过剩和提高回报。由于大宗商品和能源价格下滑，再加上产能过剩给工业利润造成的影响，中国生产者价格指数(PPI)已连续44个月下降。
