世界需要专业性能源银行 The case for a specialist energy bank

According to the International Energy Agency in their most recent World Outlookthe amount of money required to meet energy needs over the next twenty five years is $51tn. That is in real terms measured in 2013 dollars and amounts to approximately 14 times current German gross domestic product.

根据国际能源署(IEA)最新的《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)报告，未来25年里，要满足世界能源需求，总共需要51万亿美元资金。这是按2013年美元汇率计算得出的实际值，相当于德国当前国内生产总值(GDP)的近14倍。

Energy investment as defined by the IEA includes the exploration, production, distribution, transportation and processing of all forms of energy. It includes new ventures and replacement of the existing capital stock. Some $30tn of the total is expected to be devoted to fossil fuel extraction, transportation and oil refining, while most of the remainder goes to the power sector including $7.4tn to renewables and $1.5tn to nuclear; $8.7tn goes to the development of transmission and distribution systems. This is, of course, an indicative forecast built around the IEA’s assumptions of some progress towards emissions reduction. The detail is less important than the total.

IEA对能源投资的定义涵盖各类能源的勘探、生产、分配、运输和加工，包括新投资项目和对现有资本存量的置换。IEA预测，所需的51万亿美元投资总额中，约有30万亿美元将投入到化石燃料的开采、运输和石油精炼方面，而余下部分中，大多数将投向电力行业，包括向可再生能源领域投入7.4万亿美元，向核电投入1.5万亿美元；还有8.7万亿美元将投入到输配电系统的建设。当然，这是IEA基于减排将取得进展的假设所做的方向性预测。其总额比细节更加重要。

Energy investment is driven by effective demand — the combination of population numbers (up by 1.5bn to 2bn worldwide over the period ) and by the spread of prosperity. Something like 1bn additional consumers have joined the commercial energy market since the turn of the century. That level of expansion is expected to continue but the forecast is far from utopian. Many hundreds of millions living mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia will still be outside the market and in subsistence lives in 25 years time.

能源投资受到有效需求——也就是人口总数（全世界人口在接下来25年将增加15亿到20亿）以及繁荣的普及的推动。进入本世纪以后，商业能源市场大约增加了10亿消费者。这种扩张速度预计将持续下去，但这一预测离乌托邦的理想境界还很远。在接下来的25年，主要在撒哈拉以南非洲和南亚地区，还有数亿人将生活在商业能源市场之外，维持在最低生活水平。

Behind the big numbers, the scale and diversity of the projects involved is stunning. From long-distance pipelines from central Asia and eastern Siberia to China to new LNG facilities in Australia and east Africa to the establishment of urban electricity and gas grids across the developing world. Fully two-thirds of the estimated $51bn requirement comes from the non-OECD emerging market economies of the world. And that is where the problems begin. It seems dangerously likely that while some projects will easily collect the necessary capital, many others will struggle because the pay-back periods are too long for capital markets, which are focused on short-term returns and rigid capital adequacy requirements, and because of perceived risks about political change, insecurity and in some areas corruption.

在这些大数字背后，相关项目的规模和多样性令人惊讶。既有从中亚和西伯利亚东部到中国的长距离管线、澳大利亚和东非的新液化天然气设备，也有各个发展中国家城市输电网和天然气管网的建造项目。预测的51万亿美元资金需求中，整整三分之二将来自非经合组织(OECD)成员的新兴市场经济体。这也是问题所在。极有可能出现的情况是，一些项目将很容易募集到所需资金，而其他许多项目则难以募集资金，因为对重视短期回报和严格的资本充足要求的资本市场来说，这些项目的投资回报期太长。此外，政治变迁、不安全局势和（某些地区的）腐败等风险也会影响项目的融资。

Of course, many projects will be state funded — directly or through state-owned companies. Others will be funded directly out of the resources of the big private sector players such as Exxon and Shell.

当然，许多项目将由国家出资——国家直接出资或者通过国有企业出资。其他项目则直接由埃克森(Exxon)或者壳牌(Shell)等大型私营企业出资。

But even taking account of all that an enormous sum remains to be found year by year to fund the smaller businesses involved and to meet the needs of countries that do not have the deep pockets of nations such as China.

但即使把这些都算上，要为较小规模的相关企业提供资金，以及满足不如中国财力雄厚的国家的需求，每年仍需筹集总数庞大的资金。

To ensure that energy is available to as many people as possible, we need to match supply and demand for capital by creating some new institutions that understand and are equipped to deal with the timescales and the risks involved.

要保证能源能够满足尽可能多的人的需求，我们需要创建一些对能源项目耗时及相关风险十分了解，并有能力应对这些问题的新机构，从而使资金的供给和需求达到匹配。

It is easy to forget that banks used to be specialist institutions devoted to specific topics or particular geographies. Even the Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank began as a set of institutions devoted to two of the great centres of economic activity in Asia. Banks provided expert services to niche markets such as railway developments across the world in the 19th century, or the agricultural sectors in Europe and the US. Credit Agricole began life in the Jura region of France providing short-term loans as advances against the coming harvest. Standard Bank, now part of Standard Chartered, was founded to meet the needs of the gold and diamond field developers in the Cape Province of South Africa in the 1860s. Others were created as part of the process of independence for particular countries in the post-colonial era. Such focus seems to have been almost lost.

我们很容易忘记，在过去，银行是针对特定问题或特定地域提供服务的专业化机构。即使是香港上海汇丰银行(HSBC)，最开始也是一系列专注于亚洲两大经济活动中心的机构。19世纪，银行为世界各地的铁路修建等特定领域，或者为欧洲和美国的农业提供专业服务。法国农业信贷银行(Credit Agricole)最初是在法国汝拉地区(Jura)专门向农民提供短期贷款的机构，以满足农民在收获季节到来前的资金需求。现在是渣打银行(Standard Chartered)一部分的标准银行(Standard Bank)，成立初衷是为了满足19世纪60年代南非开普省(Cape Province)金矿和钻石矿场开发商的需求。还有一些银行是在后殖民时代一些国家寻求独立的过程中成立的。如今这种经营重心似乎已几近消失。

Some of the old names remain in place but many banks ( especially the biggest ) now claim to be able to cover everything. The coverage though is too often thin and unsatisfactory. I have yet to come across a major bank that really understands the energy business in depth.

一些历史悠久的银行依然不改初衷，但许多银行（尤其是那些最大的银行）现在声称其业务可以涵盖一切领域。这种覆盖往往不够深入，并不令人满意。我还没有遇到一家真正深入了解能源行业的大型银行。

The conglomerate banks understand products and processes — such as the trading of assets up to and including the lucrative business of mergers and acquisitions. But it is not clear that they understand what is being bought and sold. They would not, I think, even claim to have a grip on the complexities of energy investment in Iraq, or Tanzania or Colombia. Could they seriously distinguish between photovoltaics and solar thermal technology? Or explain the challenge of nuclear decommissioning in Germany? No.

综合性银行理解产品和流程——比如各类资产交易，包括利润丰厚的并购业务。但它们是否理解交易的标的就不清楚了。我认为，综合性银行甚至都无法宣称自己理解在伊拉克、坦桑尼亚或者哥伦比亚进行能源投资的复杂性。它们能够真正区分光伏和太阳热能技术吗？或者解释德国核设施退役的挑战？不，它们不能。

This weakness needs to be corrected. The urgent need of the next decade is to direct capital where it is required on terms that satisfy investors. That requires an institution that can understand and interpret risk and opportunity to the holders of funds. Investors require confidence above all that what they are being offered matches their own requirements. Some will want the short-term returns of a gas-fired power station. Others will be happy with the long-term steady income from infrastructure investments or be ready to take some bets on the opportunities arising from the academic work on energy storage. It would be ridiculous to expect fund managers to hold such knowledge or to be able to keep pace with everything that is happening. They need expert advice and the banks as configured cannot provide it. The net result is that investors find it all too difficult and shy away.

这一弱点必须纠正。下一个十年的迫切需求是在使投资者满意的条件下，将资金引导到需要的地方。这需要一个能够理解风险和机会，并向资金持有者解释这些情况的机构。投资者最需要的是信心，相信提供给他们的投资项目与他们自身的要求相匹配。一些人希望从天然气火电站项目获得短期回报，还有一些人则希望从基础建设投资中获得长期稳定收入，或者有意愿押注能源储存相关的学术工作所蕴含的机会。指望基金管理公司掌握这样的知识，或者能够实时了解所发生的一切情况是荒谬的。这些项目需要专业的建议，而按当前目的设立的银行无法提供这种建议。最终结果是投资者觉得事情太过困难而避开了这些项目。

Of course, there is a case for more than one energy bank. The sector is now too vast and too global for even the best institution to hold all the knowledge necessary. But the opportunities are immense — $51tn is not a trivial sum. There is a case for new banks and for spin offs from the existing institutions. There is a strong and essential role for governments in setting the policy framework and in perhaps in acting as a guarantor or lender of last resort for the most complex projects but the new institutions should be run on private and commercial lines. And who knows, perhaps a return to a banking system built on deep knowledge — of markets and technology and companies — could even begin to restore the idea that, far from being parasites, banking and the financial sector as a whole were actually useful and valuable contributors to society.

当然，有理由设立不止一家能源银行。这个行业太过庞大，全球化程度太高，即使是最好的机构也无法掌握所有需要具备的知识。但这个行业蕴含巨大的机会——51万亿美元不是一个小数目。有理由设立新的银行，或者从现有机构中分拆出一些部分。政府可以在制定政策框架方面发挥巨大而重要的作用，或者在最复杂的项目中担任最后的担保人或者贷款人，但新的机构应该是按照商业规则运作的私营机构。谁知道呢，重新深入了解市场、技术和企业的银行体系，甚至有可能开始恢复一种观念——银行以及整个金融行业绝非寄生虫，而是实际上对社会做出了有用和宝贵的贡献。