金价突破关键技术位200日移动均线

The precious metal has kicked off 2014 on a hot streak and recently jumped above a key technical indicator that bolsters the case for continued gains ahead.

黄金重新受到青睐。2014年伊始黄金需求火爆，金价最近已经突破了一项关键技术指标，这意味着金价未来还将继续上涨。

Front-month gold futures on Friday jumped back above the 200-day moving average, a line that many chart watchers use as a guide to predicting long-term trends. The last time gold traded above its 200-day moving average was Feb. 11, 2013.

上周五近月交割的黄金期货重返200日移动均线上方，许多技术指标观察人士利用该均线判断金价的长期走势。上次金价处在200日移动均线上方是在2013年2月11日。

The latest streak marked only the fourth time since 1979 in which gold traded below the 200-day moving average for more than a year, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The other instances took place in the first half of 1998, October 1989 and August 1982.

据Bespoke Investment Group的数据，此前是金价自1979年以来仅第四次持续一年以上位于200日移动均线下方。其他三次分别发生在1998年的上半年，1989年10月和1982年8月。

'Gold has been acting well all year, and the fact that it has now moved above its 200-day is another good sign,' Bespoke says. 'The action around the 200-DMA over the next several days should give an indication whether this brief flirtation above will become a more permanent trend.'

Bespoke称，黄金全年表现都不错，现在突破200日移动均线是另一个向好迹象，未来几天金价在200日移动均线附近的表现应会表明这次短暂突破该均线是否会变成一种长期趋势。

The most actively traded gold contract for April delivery rose Tuesday for a 10th straight session, recently trading up 0.4% at $1,324, the highest level since Oct. 31. Stronger-than-expected data from China continued to defy expectations that the world's largest consumer of the precious metal is seeing an economic slowdown, which is giving a boost to gold prices.

周四交投最活跃的四月交割黄金期货连续第10个交易日上涨，最近上涨0.4%至每盎司1,324美元，为10月31日以来的最高水平。中国公布的经济数据强于预期，让有关中国这一全球最大黄金消费国经济增长正在放缓的预期不断落空，这为金价提供了支撑。

China attracted $10.76 billion of foreign direct investment in January--up 16.1% on year, the country's Ministry of Commerce said. Those numbers come on the heels of trade data released last week that showed an unexpected surge in both imports and exports, yet another sign of health in an economy that was predicted to slow after decades of rampant growth.

中国商务部公布，中国1月份吸引外商直接投资107.6亿美元，同比增长16.1%。而上周公布的贸易数据显示，中国进出口均意外飙升，也表明中国经济非常健康。外界此前纷纷预计，在经历了几十年的快速增长后，中国经济即将放缓。

Although investors often view Chinese data as prone to distortion, the upbeat reports have been enough to further fuel a rally that has seen the precious metal rise nearly 10% since the beginning of the year.

尽管投资者经常认为中国的数据存在水分，但这些乐观的数据足以继续刺激金价上涨。金价自年初以来已经上涨了将近10%。

The rally has been driven by investor concerns that a flagging U.S. recovery may slow the pace at which the Federal Reserve rolls back its stimulus program. Gold is often used as a hedge against economic uncertainty and weakness in the dollar, which has been hurt by the Fed's bond buying policy.

推动金价上涨的原因是，投资者担忧美国经济复苏乏力或许会令美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称：美联储)放慢削减刺激计划的步伐。黄金通常被用作对冲经济波动和美元疲软的工具，而美联储的债券购买计划对美元汇率构成打压。

Still, gold has a long way to go from recapturing recent losses incurred in recent years. Gold dropped 28% in 2013, its first drop in 13 years. The yellow metal remains down 30% from its record settle high of $1,888.70 reached in August 2011.

但若想收回最近今年丢失的阵地，黄金还有很长的路要走。金价2013年下跌28%，为13年来首次下跌。目前金价距离2011年8月触及的纪录高位每盎司1,888.70美元仍低30%。

Despite the recent rally in gold and silver prices, some investors remain hesitant to get overly bullish on the precious metals.

尽管黄金和白银价格最近上涨，一些投资者仍不愿过度看涨黄金。

'While we are in no rush to buy either, we cannot ignore the technical improvement made in recent weeks,' said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners.

MKM Partners首席市场技术分析师Jonathan Krinsky称，虽然我们并不急于买入黄金，但也不能忽视最近几周金价技术面的改善。