中国的网络购物如火如荼，但利润何在大纲

IT IS “one of the few bright spots in the Chinese economy,” says Zeng Ming. He is talking about e-commerce. Mr Zeng, the chief strategy officer for Alibaba, a giant Chinese internet firm, predicts that digital transactions on his firm’s platforms will top 1 trillion yuan ($159 billion) this year—more than Amazon’s and eBay’s combined. That is a bold claim; but consider what happened on Singles Sunday.

中国互联网巨头——阿里巴巴集团【注1】的总参谋长曾鸣【注2】将电子商务称为“中国经济少有的亮点之一”。他预测，今年阿里巴巴各平台的数字交易额将突破10000亿元人民币（约合1590亿美元），超过亚马逊和 eBay 的交易额总和。曾鸣此言大胆无畏；看看上周日光棍节那天的情况就可想而知了。

Invented a few years ago by students and seized upon by digital marketers, this festival for lonely hearts falls annually on the 11th day of the 11th month (since 1 is the loneliest number). It is like St Valentine’s Day, only worse. Singletons shower each other with tender gifts: a barrage of pearls; a storm of sweets.

几年前，一些学生把每年的11月11日定为单身者的节日——“光棍节”【注3】（因为“1”是最为“孤独”的数字）。随后，数字营销者抓住了这个商业机 遇。光棍节和情人节有些类似，只不过没有情人节那么美好。在这一天，单身人士会彼此交换很多贴心的礼物：比如大包的珠宝首饰、大把的糖果。

This November 11th they spent a staggering 19 billion yuan on Alibaba’s online platforms—a fourfold increase on a year ago, and more than double what Americans spent online last Cyber Monday (the Monday after Thanksgiving, when retailers urge Americans to shop online). More than 100m purchases were logged, accounting for 80% of the packages shipped that day. Couriers were buried in parcels.

今年11月11日，阿里巴巴各个网络平台的销售额达到了惊人的190亿元人民币，比一年前翻了两番，也是去年“网络星期一”当天美国网购交易额的两倍以上 （“网络星期一”是感恩节之后的周一，美国零售商鼓励人们在这一天在线购物）。根据记录，今年11月11日有一亿份以上的网购订单生效，占当天总发货量的 80%。运送包裹的快递员忙得不可开交。

So life is good for China’s etailers, then? Not exactly. The number of digital marketers is increasing and online sales are booming (see chart). Consumers are enjoying lower prices, better service and more variety. The problem? The pressure on margins in Chinese e-commerce is worse than in America, reckons Elinor Leung of CLSA, a broker. “Almost no one makes money,” she says.

那么，想必中国电商【注4】的日子过得很滋润吧？不尽然。数字营销者的队伍越来越庞大，网络销售也是红红火火（见图表）。消费者享受着更低的价格、更好的服务和更大的选择范围。可问题在哪？里昂证券经纪人 Elinor Leung 认为，中国电子商务的利润压力比美国还大，“几乎没什么人在赚钱”。

The fiercest battles are being fought between online retailers and their bricks-and-mortar rivals. Dangdang, a firm that resembles Amazon, and 360buy, another online retailer, have cut prices ferociously. Tencent, a cash-rich online giant known for its instant-messaging software, is splashing out to win market share. 360buy has also just raised $400m from investors to do the same. But it is unclear how much longer such firms can burn through capital.

传统实体企业是网络零售商的竞争对手，二者正在打着几场最为惨烈的商战。当当网和京东商城展开了一 场血拼价格战（前者是类似亚马逊的公司，后者是另一家网络零售商）。以即时通讯软件而闻名的腾讯公司是一家财大气粗的网络巨头，它也为占据市场份额花费了 大笔资金。前不久，京东商城还进行了四亿美元的融资，同样是为了提高其市场占有率。但这些公司的“烧钱”行为还能支撑多久？不得而知。

That is especially so since physical retailers are fighting back. Walmart has increased its stake in Yihaodian, a local e-commerce firm. Jeff Walters of BCG, a consultancy, argues that in a good year a retailer like Walmart could open 40-50 physical stores, just a sliver of the Chinese market, “which is why e-commerce is so important for them here”. Many Western rivals have flopped in China with the big-box strategy; including, most recently, Best Buy (an electronics chain) and Home Depot (a do-it-yourself shop).

这种情况尤为明显，因为实体零售商已经发起了反攻。沃尔玛增加了自己在中国本土电子商务公司——“1号店”【注5】所持有的股份。来自咨询公司 BCG 的 Jeff Walters 认为：在效益好的年份里，像沃尔玛这样的零售商可以开设四五十家实体店，而这个数目在中国市场上只是九牛一毛—— “所以电子商务对这些公司来说非常重要”。很多在中国推行仓储直营模式的西方竞争者都栽了跟头，比如最近的百思买（一家电子产品连锁企业）和家得宝（一家 自助式家居建材用品零售商）【注6】。

Suning and Gome, big Chinese high-street electronics stores, are putting an expanded range of products on their websites. Alan Lau of McKinsey & Co, a consultancy, says they are also pushing manufacturers to stop offering etailers such big discounts. He estimates that in 2011 computers and handsets sold online were 12% cheaper than in stores; this year they are only 7% cheaper. As the gap gets smaller, so do nearly everyone’s margins.

中国两家大型连锁家电销售企业——苏宁电器和国美电器都在各自网站上扩大了产品门类。麦肯锡咨询公司的 Alan Lau 认为，两家企业此举也在向制造商施压，促使其减小对电商的打折力度。他估计，2011年网上销售的电脑和手机比实体店便宜12%，而今年只比实体店便宜7%。随着价格差距的缩小，几乎所有企业的利润都受到了影响。The great exception is Alibaba, which handles nearly three-quarters of China’s e-commerce. Because its Taobao (consumer-to-consumer) and Tmall (business-to-consumer) platforms connect buyers and sellers, the firm does not carry the cost of logistics or inventory. It makes none of the products it sells. (American officials have branded it a “notorious” counterfeit market, a charge Alibaba deems unfair.) It makes money chiefly through advertisements, not user fees, a model that works thanks to its dominant position.

阿里巴巴是个大大的例外——它控制了中国电子商务将近75%的市场份额。由于阿里巴巴旗下拥有“客对客”的淘宝网和“商对客”的天猫商城等平台【注7】来 让买卖双方联系起来，该公司无需承担物流或是仓储方面的成本。它销售的产品也并非由自己生产（美国官员将阿里巴巴斥为一块“臭名昭著”的假货市场，而该公 司认为这种指责有失公允）。阿里巴巴主要通过广告来盈利，而不依靠用户缴纳的费用。由于它在市场上占据了主导地位，这种模式行之有效。

Privately held Alibaba does not discuss its finances, but Yahoo! owns a stake (which it is winding down). The American internet firm’s disclosures this month reveal that Alibaba’s revenues nearly doubled year-on-year, to $2.9 billion for the three quarters ending in June. Its profits tripled to $730m over that period.

阿里巴巴是私人控股公司，并不会公开其财务状况。但雅虎公司拥有阿里巴巴的股份（雅虎正在逐步减少其份额）。根据这家美国互联网公司本月披露的数据显示， 阿里巴巴的收入与上年同期相比几乎翻了一番，在截至今年六月的三个季度中达到了29亿美元；同期利润也增长了两倍，达到了7.3亿美元。

Alibaba is bullish. In China e-commerce already accounts for nearly 5% of total retail sales, roughly the same as in America. But its potential is greater, argues the firm. In America, physical retailers are already efficient and everywhere. In China, they are highly fragmented, inefficient and barely visible outside big cities. So etailers could leapfrog them.

阿里巴巴对前景感到乐观。该公司认为：中国的电子商务已经占了零售销售额总量的近5%，和美国的比例大致相同；但该行业的潜力尚未得到充分挖掘。在美国， 实体零售商无处不在，已经有了不错的效率。而在中国，实体零售产业高度分化、效率较低，而且在大城市之外鲜有涉足。因此，电商可以迎头赶上，抢占市场。

Mr Zeng notes that legions of Chinese have yet to go online. As they do so, Alibaba will be watching, recording and analysing their shopping habits. The firm is devising a “big data” strategy. It hopes to help vendors harness customer information quickly and share insights among themselves. This could allow them to accelerate product-design cycles.

曾鸣指出，中国目前还有大批民众尚未开始网络购物。随着他们走上这条道路，阿里巴巴将观察、记录并分析其购物习惯。该公司正在设计一种“大数据”战略，希望帮助各销售商高效地利用客户信息并彼此分享商业经验。此举可以让他们缩短产品设计周期。

The firm’s lofty ambition is to help China move towards “mass customisation” and “user-generated innovation”—turning trendy jargon into reality. “The entire supply chain will sit on e-commerce,” insists Mr Zeng. “It will be not just a tool, but the heart of the entire economy.”

阿里巴巴有着宏图壮志：帮助中国走向“大规模定制”和“用户创新”——把这些时髦的行业术语变成现实。曾鸣坚称：“整个供应链将以电子商务为依托。电子商务将不仅仅是一种工具，更是整体经济的核心。”