影响:中国经济转型将影响世界

Forget the Federal Reserve. Forget the European Central Bank. The institution whose decisions will matter most to the world economy over the next five years is China's State Council.

忘记美联储(Federal Reserve)，忘记欧洲央行(European Central Bank)。未来五年，对世界经济影响最大的决定将来自中国国务院。

The 30 or so officials that the National People's Congress will this month name as new five-year members of that powerful cabinet body will oversee a sweeping economic transformation with global consequences. How smoothly they manage China's planned transition from an unsustainable growth model that's been based on exports and state-directed investment toward an open, consumer-driven economy will have vast implications for the rest of the world. Prices for everything from European government bonds to iron ore are on the line. How it transpires will even dictate whether and when the Fed and the ECB can normalize their extraordinary monetary easing policies.

中国的全国人民代表大会本月将任命大约30名官员进入这个拥有很大权力的内阁机构，开始他们为期五年的任期。这些官员将负责会在全球造成影响的全面经济转型。他们将实施中国的经济转型规划，改变依赖出口和政府主导的投资的不可持续增长模式，转向开放的消费者驱动型经济，这一过程是否顺利将会对世界其他地区产生深远的影响。从欧洲各国政府债券到铁矿石，一切资产的价格都会受到影响。这次转型的过程甚至将决定美联储和欧洲央行能否让他们不同寻常的货币宽松政策正常化。

So far, developments just before and during the NPC's two-week-long annual meeting suggest the council will continue a policy of incremental liberalization. Those changes are in the best interests of a more balanced global economy, but only so far as the economic pain that they deliver to key industries within and outside China is manageable. Tens of millions of jobs are on the line.

到目前为止，全国人大为期两周的会议之前和会议期间的进展显示，国务院将会继续实施渐进式自由化的政策。这些改革最有利于实现更加平衡的全球经济，但前提是它们为中国内外的关键产业带来的经济痛苦是可控的。这种改革危及数千万个工作岗位。

On March 1, curbs on property loans were announced and this week we learned that mainland-dwelling residents of Macau and Hong Kong can now invest in the stock market. In different ways--in the first case, by attacking a looming credit bubble and in the second, by bolstering capital markets as an alternative to banks and increasing cross-border fund flows--these measures chip away at the structure of a tightly managed financial system through which state-controlled banks have funneled Chinese households' excess savings into subsidized loans for massive investment projects.

3月1日，对购房贷款的限制措施出台，本周，我们了解到居住在内地的港澳居民现在可以投资股市了。这两个措施以不同的方式削弱了一个被牢牢控制的金融体系的结构，前者是通过打击未来可能出现的信贷泡沫，后者则通过支持资本市场成为银行的替代品，增加跨境资金流动。国有银行一直通过这一金融体系将中国居民的大量储蓄用作大型投资项目的补贴贷款。

Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China has let the yuan rise by 0.6% against the dollar since Feb. 21 to close it in on a record high. The gain might not seem much, but it coincided with the dollar's own 1.6% increase versus the basket of seven advanced-country currencies that comprise the Wall Street Journal Dollar index and an almost-4% surge versus the yen. This makes the yuan one of the strongest performing currencies in the world right now. Along with some hefty wage increases in recent years, the currency realignment is simultaneously dissolving Chinese exporters' cost advantages while boosting the purchasing power of its army of budding consumers--a desirable and necessary power shift.

同时，自从2月21日以来，中国央行还允许人民币兑美元升值0.6%，使人民币收盘价创下新高。这个升值幅度可能不大，但是与此同时，美元自身对华尔街日报美元指数(the Wall Street Journal Dollar index )中七个发达国家的一篮子货币升值了1.6%，并且对日圆大幅升值近4%。这让人民币成为目前全世界表现最强劲的货币之一。加上最近几年工资水平几次大幅上涨，货币的升值同时消除了中国出口商的成本优势，同时提振了新兴消费大军的购买力，这是一个可喜和必要的力量转移。

Nonetheless, recent data highlight the risks in the Chinese authorities' balancing act. Over the weekend, retail sales fell notably short of expectations, suggesting that domestic consumer spending is struggling to take the growth baton from overseas demand. The poor performance was in part caused by a crackdown on corruption, which is curtailing officials' expenditures on luxury goods. No good deed goes unpunished.

尽管如此，近来的数据却凸显出了中国当局在平衡经济方面遇到的风险。上周末，中国零售数据远低于预期，表明国内消费支出难以接过海外需求的“接力棒”来推动增长。从一定程度上来说，国内零售业绩低迷是反腐造成的，因为反腐会限制官员在奢侈品方面的支出。真是好人没好报。

Making matters worse, inflation exceeded forecasts. That raised the prospect that the People's Bank of China will tighten monetary policy at an inopportune moment of economic slowdown. Sure enough, People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said earlier Wednesday that the central bank's low money supply target reflected its focus on price stability.

更糟的是，通胀超过了预期。人们认为，中国央行(People's Bank of China)可能会收紧货币政策，尽管在眼下经济放缓的时候，此举显得有些不合时宜。果然，中国央行行长周小川周三早些时候说，中国央行较低的货币供应量目标体现出对价格稳定的关注。

Even an otherwise welcome increase in exports last week is being challenged by economists who believe it was inflated by false orders. And electricity production, which is trusted as a more reliable, less-manipulated statistic, was down.

甚至本该令人满意的上周出口额的增加也受到了经济学家的质疑，他们认为出口额因虚假订单而有所夸大。另外，发电量也出现下降，外界一直认为这是比较可信、受到较少控制的数据。

If you're wondering whether any of this matters, consider how outside markets reacted to these announcements from the world's second-largest economy. When the government unveiled tougher mortgage terms, the Australian dollar swooned as investors reasoned the measures would slow Chinese construction projects and sap demand for iron ore, one of Australia's main exports. And after the weekend's data provoked predictions that 2013 growth would fall short of the government's targeted 7.5% rate, markets across Asia fell.

如果你想知道上述任何一项数据是否会产生重要影响，那么想想海外市场对世界第二大经济体发布这些消息的反应吧。中国政府公布更严格的住房抵押贷款条件后，澳元应声大跌，因为投资者认为，此举将导致中国建筑项目放缓，减少对铁矿石的需求，而铁矿石是澳大利亚主要的出口产品之一。上周末的数据不禁令外界预测，中国2013年的经济增速将不及政府7.5%的目标。鉴于此，亚洲市场普遍下跌。

And consider this: The more economic challenges China faces at home, the less likely it is to use its $3 trillion stockpile of currency reserves to prop up the struggling bond markets of Europe or to help fund Washington's borrowings. In fact, if Beijing supports a stronger yuan, it may encourage a net repatriation of reserves. This could drive up interest rates in the West, and provoke financial instability.

想想看，中国国内面临的经济挑战越多，它使用3万亿美元外汇储备刺激欧洲苦苦挣扎的债市或为华盛顿提供借款资金的可能性就越小。实际上，如果北京支持强势人民币，那就有可能促成外汇储备的调回。这样一来，也许会推动西方利率上涨，引发金融动荡。

China's tricky transition demands a deft handling of these competing challenges. Let's hope those new State Council members keep a steady hand on the tiller.

在中国复杂的过渡时期，需灵活处理这些相互矛盾的挑战。让我们期待中国国务院新领导人能稳住阵脚吧。